pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Yes we will probably rain. We can hope for more front and back end of storm. absolutely. EVERYTHING we are seeing so far (even the warm biased CTP disco) suggests we are not far away from staying frozen. Just not sure were the very wet signal is coming from? Thru 72 for storm 1, I am now all snow on the GFS. Snow line ticked 50 miles south. Good trends for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS @84 MSLP is 100 miles SW of 6z Same at 96..... I cant wait for the next couple panels..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: absolutely. EVERYTHING we are seeing so far (even the warm biased CTP disco) suggests we are not far away from staying frozen. Just not sure were the very wet signal is coming from? Thru 72 for storm 1, I am now all snow on the GFS. Snow line ticked 50 miles south. Good trends for me so far. I do not doubt that CAD (though for me at 800' I might lose it) can hold strong and stay frozen but I am pulling for snow and not seeing the trends moving enough. I fear I am moving into wish-casting territory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: absolutely. EVERYTHING we are seeing so far (even the warm biased CTP disco) suggests we are not far away from staying frozen. Just not sure were the very wet signal is coming from? Thru 72 for storm 1, I am now all snow on the GFS. Snow line ticked 50 miles south. Good trends for me so far. Yea 540 stayed south of us along with 850. Surface little iffy but it is the gfs, don't trust it 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Yea 540 stayed south of us along with 850. Surface little iffy but it is the gfs, don't trust it 2m temps. all I'm looking for. As they say in the MA forum....we take (hate that btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is going to be almost all rain for the LSV this weekend (front end). 540 line is already north of much of the LSV as the precip enters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs not looking good at start of weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I do not doubt that CAD (though for me at 800' I might lose it) can hold strong and stay frozen but I am pulling for snow and not seeing the trends moving enough. I fear I am moving into wish-casting territory! 'cmon bubbler...isn't it just a tad early to actually believe that the final outcome of an event more than 120 hours away is currently a lock? There are so many more runs to go. You know the drill with this. It's a roller coaster and you'll drive yourself insane by deciding the outcome of a storm 5+ days out is a lock. Like nut said, what happens with Thursday night's storm will have an effect on the Saturday storm. Plus, as long as we have some models out there saying more frozen than liquid, we can hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Gfs not looking good at start of weekend storm. The whole state is just a big rain storm. Congrats Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not even worth talking about. Ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 @108 it pooped da bed, but looked better leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: 'cmon bubbler...isn't it just a tad early to actually believe that the final outcome of an event more than 120 hours away is currently a lock? There are so many more runs to go. You know the drill with this. It's a roller coaster and you'll drive yourself insane by deciding the outcome of a storm 5+ days out is a lock. Like nut said, what happens with Thursday night's storm will have an effect on the Saturday storm. Plus, as long as we have some models out there saying more frozen than liquid, we can hold out hope. I am looking at it realistically in that we need a high pressure to our North or North East to keep a low from gaining latitude. But I am far from getting to the point of not watching models however I do not see any meteorological reason that we can get a big snow storm this weekend at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 'cmon bubbler...isn't it just a tad early to actually believe that the final outcome of an event more than 120 hours away is currently a lock? There are so many more runs to go. You know the drill with this. It's a roller coaster and you'll drive yourself insane by deciding the outcome of a storm 5+ days out is a lock. Like nut said, what happens with Thursday night's storm will have an effect on the Saturday storm. Plus, as long as we have some models out there saying more frozen than liquid, we can hold out hope. There is plenty of time left and final evolution of Friday still in question, let alone Sunday. I know I'm a half full kinda guy, and i try not to let that get in the way of what I see, but GFS up to 96 looked better w/ LP position, and beyind is fuzzy enough to not worry about 1 run. IF all others trend NW, then fine...goose cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: There is plenty of time left and final evolution of Friday still in question, let alone Sunday. I know I'm a half full kinda guy, and i try not to let that get in the way of what I see, but GFS up to 96 looked better w/ LP position, and beyind is fuzzy enough to not worry about 1 run. IF all others trend NW, then fine...goose cooked. That sounds reasonable to me. And...even if we lose out on this weekend I think we're going into a pretty exciting period with arctic air to play with and storm potentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The fv3 looks decent for Thursday night and friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: There is plenty of time left and final evolution of Friday still in question, let alone Sunday. I know I'm a half full kinda guy, and i try not to let that get in the way of what I see, but GFS up to 96 looked better w/ LP position, and beyind is fuzzy enough to not worry about 1 run. IF all others trend NW, then fine...goose cooked. Seeing it drive a 993 up into Albany is kind of crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 'cmon bubbler...isn't it just a tad early to actually believe that the final outcome of an event more than 120 hours away is currently a lock? There are so many more runs to go. You know the drill with this. It's a roller coaster and you'll drive yourself insane by deciding the outcome of a storm 5+ days out is a lock. Like nut said, what happens with Thursday night's storm will have an effect on the Saturday storm. Plus, as long as we have some models out there saying more frozen than liquid, we can hold out hope. 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am looking at it realistically in that we need a high pressure to our North or North East to keep a low from gaining latitude. But I am far from getting to the point of not watching models however I do not see any meteorological reason that we can get a big snow storm this weekend at this point. I see both points here...while it's a great thing to be optimistic and and understand that there's a lot that can happen 4 days out, from a scientific point it's just not a good set up at all for a snowstorm. Many really good mets beyond Eric Horst have said that on here for the past several days. So while it's fine to hold out hope and perhaps pull off something really good...smart odds are on this being primarily a rainer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 A few days ago I joked we'd get more snow Thursday night than all weekend. Turns out, that's looking to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Seeing it drive a 993 up into Albany is kind of crazy. looking at 500's it can happen. What i'm troubled w/ regarding GFS evolution, is look at the 700's and the arctic express looming. I just dont see how even at 993, it can push back that deep a pool of cold air. Were it Polar pacific in origin, I'd get it, but this is true Nanook of da north - polar express kinda stuff and doesnt just get bounced around. See my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I see both points here...while it's a great thing to be optimistic and and understand that there's a lot that can happen 4 days out, from a scientific point it's just not a good set up at all for a snowstorm. Many really good mets beyond Eric Horst have said that on here for the past several days. So while it's fine to hold out hope and perhaps pull off something really good...smart odds are on this being primarily a rainer. ..and just to add to this, I am not making a point against Carlisle in any manner. He is as good as they come as to a weather poster. I was not trying to be pessimistic I was just hoping to see reason for it to snow show up in the GFS and I am having trouble finding it. The fact that it drives the Low near Erie is not the issue vs. finding why it would keep it in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at 500's it can happen. What i'm troubled w/ regarding GFS evolution, is look at the 700's and the arctic express looming. I just dont see how even at 993, it can push back that deep a pool of cold air. Were it Polar pacific in origin, I'd get it, but this is true Nanook of da north - polar express kinda stuff and doesnt just get bounced around. See my point. I certainly see your point I am just so used to feeling like we need a strong HP there to help resist this from happening and the high is running away like a scared school child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at 500's it can happen. What i'm troubled w/ regarding GFS evolution, is look at the 700's and the arctic express looming. I just dont see how even at 993, it can push back that deep a pool of cold air. Were it Polar pacific in origin, I'd get it, but this is true Nanook of da north - polar express kinda stuff and doesnt just get bounced around. See my point. and to add to my point, we never loose the 700's even w/ that track (thanks to storm #1). 850's are toast, but warm nose is shallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: I certainly see your point I am so used to feeling like we need a strong HP there to help resist this from happening. we have a 1036 that just showed up to the party. yeah he got bounced out, but couple that with the arctic express, and that is my way home w/ this one. I'm likely off my rocker, but that is my angle. To me, LP would adjust as we get closer. 500's say I'm lost as well, but again, I go back to surface as there is enough cold close to save some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 To add insult to injury, the GFS suggests we are going to have some serious hydro issues over the next 7-10 days. 5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW CMC is big rainer to backend snow for everyone but NW 1/3. They get the goods. I'm not ready to throw anything in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: we have a 1036 that just showed up to the party. yeah he got bounced out, but couple that with the arctic express, and that is my way home w/ this one. I'm likely off my rocker, but that is my angle. To me, LP would adjust as we get closer. 500's say I'm lost as well, but again, I go back to surface as there is enough cold close to save some of us. I agree that the location of that HP is crucial. On the Monday 0Z GFS it was pressing down and we are all snow. Future runs have show it ahead and further north of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 52 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store. We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us. We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good. 12Z GFS is bringing low #1 into Pitt! Ugh. I don't think that anything is going to get settled until Thursday. And I hope Thursday will be showing better results for Sat/Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: To add insult to injury, the GFS suggests we are going to have some serious hydro issues over the next 7-10 days. 5 inches of rain. liquid equivalent fixed. way too early to call it wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, lpaschall said: I agree that the location of that HP is crucial. On the Monday 0Z GFS it was pressing down and we are all snow. Future runs have show it ahead and further north of the low. yeah man. thats the problem. We need that to hold 6-10 hours longer, till the arctic air force comes in and does a strafing run on the whole village and saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: liquid equivalent fixed. way too early to call it wet LOL, no question I am just reading off what the model shows. Just a model discussion. As you have alluded to whatever happens this weekend will change the future anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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