Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, canderson said: Is the ICON a new map? I never remember it getting talked about prior to this year. Is it worthy to look at closely or is like the SREFs and NAM and etc? Personally I felt like it had a more smooth transition to a snowier solution, for this previous weekend system, than some of the more traditional models such as UK and GFS which I believe jumped around a bit more. I am surprised at all the NAM hate I keep reading about (mostly in the MA forum). No doubt it is a shorter range model but I lurked some over the last few years and although they all miss some times, the NAM seems quite good at catching late trends in storms within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Cool. Thanks guys. What are your opinions on this model overall versus Euro and GFS? I look at it more for consensus. It did alright w/ a few events last year. I dont really follow skill scores, but you can find them. here is a link for verification scores for the bigguns, but ICON not inclusive...yet https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: What kinda weenie are you? You KNOW we are to hug the snowiest model in da bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Personally I felt like it had a more smooth transition to a snowier solution, for this previous weekend system, than some of the more traditional models such as UK and GFS which I believe jumped around a bit more. I am surprised at all the NAM hate I keep reading about (mostly in the MA forum). No doubt it is a shorter range model but I lurked some over the last few years and although they all miss some times, the NAM seems quite good at catching late trends in storms within 48 hours. NAM nailed the Blizz in '16...and I mean nailed it. From extrapolation range, to gametime. I like you think it is an underrated model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, pawatch said: Add 10 years to that 53. Look at the temps and to think we could get freezing rain. Well...it is nice to see I am younger than some in this forum...lol! Regarding that map, that's yesterday's 12Z. Do we have the overnight 0Z map? The one that supposedly gives us rain and 50? I don't believe that scenario for one minute, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NAM nailed the Blizz in '16...and I mean nailed it. From extrapolation range, to gametime. I like you think it is an underrated model If I see a drastic change in something between one run or another I always put my money on the NAM vs. the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Interesting discussion on our next two storms I was reading this morning. Both systems are singular systems. No phasing or anything needed. This at least increases the likelihood of a "hit" just a matter of precip types based on the ultimate storm locations. Basically we should watch where storm one(thur/fri) goes, as a tracer for the "big one" storm two. A clipper followed by a potentially large storm riding a gradient along the east coast. Good set up for potentially high precip values. Thurs night isn't too far away. So if the discussion of the clipper track is correct, we should have a little more confidence on how central pa is going to make out with confidence on friday morning. I am hoping for a stronger/south of the mason dixon line storm for thurs night. As I have also been told a stronger storm one will lower heights out of Canada and increase our big snowstorm potential for the weekend. Keep the weekend storm from cutting west or through us. Thoughts? We usually don't have a tracer system before a good looking storm. Again, thoughts, opinions, does that seem right? Also, this "clipper" everyone is talking about, doesn't look like a traditional clipper for Thur/Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Don't look at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: Interesting discussion on our next two storms I was reading this morning. Both systems are singular systems. No phasing or anything needed. This at least increases the likelihood of a "hit" just a matter of precip types based on the ultimate storm locations. Basically we should watch where storm one(thur/fri) goes, as a tracer for the "big one" storm two. A clipper followed by a potentially large storm riding a gradient along the east coast. Good set up for potentially high precip values. Thurs night isn't too far away. So if the discussion of the clipper track is correct, we should have a little more confidence on how central pa is going to make out with confidence on friday morning. I am hoping for a stronger/south of the mason dixon line storm for thurs night. As I have also been told a stronger storm one will lower heights out of Canada and increase our big snowstorm potential for the weekend. Keep the weekend storm from cutting west or through us. Thoughts? We usually don't have a tracer system before a good looking storm. Again, thoughts, opinions, does that seem right? Also, this "clipper" everyone is talking about, doesn't look like a traditional clipper for Thur/Fri? You pretty much hit the nail on the head. Storm #1 sets up boundary for storm #2. We want #1 south of us as when #2 digs (bigger system), we want better antecedent cold for #2 to run into. I posted earlier here that #1 is more of a shortwave running a boundary, so to your point, its a cleaner, less tricky evolution. Follow the boundary and find the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Welcome aboard Josh, welcome to the nut house....................Bunch of damn old guys in here.. Nut, a lot of our past good storms have had some other form of precip for a brief period. I'll glad take a couple drops of rain, a lil sleet etc if afterwards i get 2' of white gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Personally I felt like it had a more smooth transition to a snowier solution, for this previous weekend system, than some of the more traditional models such as UK and GFS which I believe jumped around a bit more. I am surprised at all the NAM hate I keep reading about (mostly in the MA forum). No doubt it is a shorter range model but I lurked some over the last few years and although they all miss some times, the NAM seems quite good at catching late trends in storms within 48 hours. As Nut said the NAM was really good in the 1/16 storm, and I think (unscientifically) that it does very well in general with large winter east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm 36. Keep the "old" talk to yourselves, geezers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Don't look at the GFS. Yea fv3 gfs even worse. Still got time but starting to go downhill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Don't look at the GFS. Not sure I agree. #1 track is slightly N of 6z, but lays down 2-4 even w/ mixing #2 same deal, but that is a CTP crushjob, while I get ice ice baby in a bookend event snowwise. Op runs at distance....not fretting yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Don't look at the GFS. If you mean that in a negative way it doesn't look that bad. MDT gets 2.5" from the clipper and then 7" from the weekend event for a multi-storm total of 9.5". Maybe not a blockbuster but pretty good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS give MDT nearly half a foot of snow it appears, but probably gets washed away by heavy rain instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Welcome aboard Josh, welcome to the nut house....................Bunch of damn old guys in here.. Nut, a lot of our past good storms have had some other form of precip for a brief period. I'll glad take a couple drops of rain, a lil sleet etc if afterwards i get 2' of white gold. ABSOLUTELY!! Down here, its part of the deal. JB said many moons ago, "you gotta smell the rain for the best snows". Very true...like him or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: You pretty much hit the nail on the head. Storm #1 sets up boundary for storm #2. We want #1 south of us as when #2 digs (bigger system), we want better antecedent cold for #2 to run into. I posted earlier here that #1 is more of a shortwave running a boundary, so to your point, its a cleaner, less tricky evolution. Follow the boundary and find the storm. I am a positive person, so at this point, because we are still 5/6 days out for the weekend storm. Some simplicity is kind of refreshing compared to what we have been dealing with. Also, if the Thurs/Fri system doesn't pan out too well, us southern folks shouldn't get tooooo excited for the weekend system. Or be prepared for a mixed bag of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: GFS give MDT nearly half a foot of snow it appears, but probably gets washed away by heavy rain instantly. We may be deep enough into antecedent cold to have ice probs bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: I am a positive person, so at this point, because we are still 5/6 days out for the weekend storm. Some simplicity is kind of refreshing compared to what we have been dealing with. Also, if the Thurs/Fri system doesn't pan out too well, us southern folks shouldn't get tooooo excited for the weekend system. Or be prepared for a mixed bag of precip. Your gonna be just fine in "our" group. Good way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 If there's one lot who know precision; it's Germany. That and lists. Very good with lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We may be deep enough into antecedent cold to have ice probs bud. I'd think the intensity would overcounter any ZR right? Isn't ZR with heavy rain rates basically impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: Yea fv3 gfs even worse. Still got time but starting to go downhill! That was my point exactly. Lots of time to go but there's also much that can right and wrong with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, canderson said: I'd think the intensity would overcounter any ZR right? Isn't ZR with heavy rain rates basically impossible? I've had freezing rain with temps in the mid teens. If it's heavy it might pond on roadways on impact but trust me...it can get seriously nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS give MDT nearly half a foot of snow it appears, but probably gets washed away by heavy rain instantly. I'm not sure its washed away. Here is 2m air temps, and worst panel of them all. 850's crash right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: That was my point exactly. Lots of time to go but there's also much that can right and wrong with this. Agree, cmc is rain to Maine with some backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I've had freezing rain with temps in the mid teens. If it's heavy it might pond on roadways on impact but trust me...it can get seriously nasty. I concur with this. I do not remember the exact date but there was a storm in the 1980's where it rained a good 1/2" an hour with it in the teens. It would devastate trees and power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ^ reminiscent of storms from the 80s. Classic mix bag down here with crippling interior snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I've had freezing rain with temps in the mid teens. If it's heavy it might pond on roadways on impact but trust me...it can get seriously nasty. Ditto. Biggest example of that was an incredible ice storm in January of 1994...about 10 days before the all-time record cold that hit these parts. I was in northern NJ for it but I experienced the same thing. Heavy freezing rain with a temperature of 16 degrees F! My friend who lived up in the extreme NW corner of NJ (High Point) had freezing rain and a temp of +4 F !!! Truly unbelievable, but for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I'd think the intensity would overcounter any ZR right? Isn't ZR with heavy rain rates basically impossible? Not at all. You need to look at themals in mid/lower layers (see post above). They tell you what kind of precip may occur. For 12z GFS mid and lower levels suffiecienty cold enough with exception to the LSV as we lose them for a bit. Think of it this way, precip will fall no matter the thermals, its just what if falls into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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