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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

True story! Everybody is saying the sea temps and stuff are acting like a Nina, hence the sucky winter S and E of 85

Is this like 4 Ninas in a row then?

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Is this like 4 Ninas in a row then?

If it was really acting like a Nina, we wouldn't have had a juicy STJ dousing us with rain for several months (although it has moderated of late). 

It's not acting like a weak Nino though, which is what had a lot of folks with high hopes.  There are multiple theories floating around as to why.

As I mentioned on the MA thread, I am waving the flag for this winter.  I don't see any reason to believe that there will be any significantly good period for the Carolinas.  I am completely rejecting discounting the weeklies/CFS and their continued "trust me, this time it can't go wrong" NAO blocking, and the Pacific base state just seems to not be right.

I hope I am proven wrong.

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End Result: Thats whats called getting Nam'ed after several days watching for a NW trend and finally at h5 you get get minor tweaks to break your way and win that wx lottery scenario I was talking about a coupe of days ago.

 

sn10_012h.us_ma.png

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

End Result: Thats whats called getting Nam'ed after several days watching for a NW trend and finally at h5 you get get minor tweaks to break your way and win that wx lottery scenario I was talking about a coupe of days ago.

 

sn10_012h.us_ma.png

Do you think there could be more NW trends before tomorrow night?

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Just now, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

Do you think there could be more NW trends before tomorrow night?

:)

 

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

If it was really acting like a Nina, we wouldn't have had a juicy STJ dousing us with rain for several months (although it has moderated of late). 

It's not acting like a weak Nino though, which is what had a lot of folks with high hopes.  There are multiple theories floating around as to why.

As I mentioned on the MA thread, I am waving the flag for this winter.  I don't see any reason to believe that there will be any significantly good period for the Carolinas.  I am completely rejecting discounting the weeklies/CFS and their continued "trust me, this time it can't go wrong" NAO blocking, and the Pacific base state just seems to not be right.

I hope I am proven wrong.

Good thing for Patriots they  didn’t do like you when they were playing Atlanta in the Super bowl. Give up in the 3rd quarter. Everyone thought Atlanta had won. 

 

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31 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

Do you think there could be more NW trends before tomorrow night?

Oh yea and it can trend away from this as well. hour 30 if the trough can just go a nose hair negative itll be way futher inland. Right now its neutral at hr 30 and honestly here at hr 42 should be more qpf back in land NC in my opinion. Well see, been a fun one to watch.

 

500hv.conus.png

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9 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Good thing for Patriots they  didn’t do like you when they were playing Atlanta in the Super bowl. Give up in the 3rd quarter. Everyone thought Atlanta had won. 

 

He is right you know? Not that we can't get a transient chance like next weekend.  But I'd say the hope if a sustained period of good opportunity and tracking is long gone. And why would anyone believe any model with a huge block anymore? Its shown that all winter and never comes. Why is this different?  Hell it's been teasing a block for years. Theres something seriously hampering the NAO in winter months and faking out the models. Obviously something we don't know since the programming of the models always miss it.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Oh yea and it can trend away from this as well. hour 30 if the trough can just go a nose hair negative itll be way futher inland. Right now its neutral at hr 30 and honestly here at hr 42 should be more qpf back in land NC in my opinion. Well see, been a fun one to watch.

 

500hv.conus.png

thanks, you were on this before anyone else!

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12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Good thing for Patriots they  didn’t do like you when they were playing Atlanta in the Super bowl. Give up in the 3rd quarter. Everyone thought Atlanta had won. 

 

The difference, though, is that Patriots actually had an impact on the outcome of that game.  There is nothing that I can do to affect the weather one way or another.

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The difference, though, is that Patriots actually had an impact on the outcome of that game.  There is nothing that I can do to affect the weather one way or another.

I wasn’t saying younor I can do anytthing about the weather. My point was don’t give up when we’re in the best part of winter. 

Check out Joe Bastsrdo Saturday Summary today.  His forecast is very encouraging. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I wasn’t saying younor I can do anytthing about the weather. My point was don’t give up when we’re in the best part of winter. 

Check out Joe Bastsrdo Saturday Summary today.  His forecast is very encouraging. 

 

When you're down to JB it's getting tough

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

End Result: Thats whats called getting Nam'ed after several days watching for a NW trend and finally at h5 you get get minor tweaks to break your way and win that wx lottery scenario I was talking about a coupe of days ago.

 

sn10_012h.us_ma.png

This is really really close to being something special....just need .25-.50" more QPF could easily end up being a fairly widespread 3-6" type event for east central NC especially east of I-95...

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26 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I wasn’t saying younor I can do anytthing about the weather. My point was don’t give up when we’re in the best part of winter. 

Check out Joe Bastsrdo Saturday Summary today.  His forecast is very encouraging. 

 

JB? You're kidding I hope. He knows how to spin it to sound good. There is no damn way he even believes anything he says. He just has to go down with the fail boat. Not a snowball's chance in Columbia SC his negative 3-5 departure even comes close.

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26 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

0z Nam trending wrong direction;

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

That’s more like a leap in the wrong direction compared to the 18z.  Ouch. :wacko2:

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16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

That should bring a wet and mild pattern!!! 

Nah, that western US ridge will save us .... look at that split flow just off the California coast.

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1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Did you see JB Saturday summary? He optimistic about cold and southern track setting up. 

His winter outlook is a total bust and about once a week since January, he’s saying the next 45 days are going to be the coldest ever!! Now he’s backed up to last 2 weeks in Feb/ first 2 weeks in March! They don’t call him Bustardi for nothing!! Total hack

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

His winter outlook is a total bust and about once a week since January, he’s saying the next 45 days are going to be the coldest ever!! Now he’s backed up to last 2 weeks in Feb/ first 2 weeks in March! They don’t call him Bustardi for nothing!! Total hack

He said there would be a warm up back in December and then mid to late January winter would come 

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28 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

He said there would be a warm up back in December and then mid to late January winter would come 

About 2-3 weeks ago, he said the coldest 45 day period that we have ever seen in the East was coming!? Now it’s the middle of March. His winter outlook of -4/-5 below avg for the whole winter, can’t verify! He just keeps hyping, even though he’s already wrong

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