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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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The setup looks nice but expect more trends, worrisome to see euro suppressed but 12z made a step in right direction. The trends have been good today that’s all that can be said at this point. 

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7 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

The setup looks nice but expect more trends, worrisome to see euro suppressed but 12z made a step in right direction. The trends have been good today that’s all that can be said at this point. 

Am I imagining things or does Euro have a tendency to not be on steroids during a certain time frame. I know the tendency to not eject s/w out of the southwest u.s. but Idk if I'm just confusing it to where itll dig storms to Cuba and then correct itself. 

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Am I imagining things or does Euro have a tendency to not be on steroids during a certain time frame. I know the tendency to not eject s/w out of the southwest u.s. but Idk if I'm just confusing it to where itll dig storms to Cuba and then correct itself. 

I feel like it’s so hard to predict model bias sometimes. Every storm is unique and models are so dynamic that all storms are modeled slightly different. But a lot of boxes are checkEd on this threat. Great high latitude blocking, 50-50 low to hold HP in position. One issue with euro is moving 50/50 out of the way too quickly. 
Just need to see euro turn more neutral tilt with the s/w. 

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Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda.gfs_mslpa_us_33.png

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

12z EURO made a swing in the right direction... Now we wait for the EPS to come on board

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Yep , time to lose sleep tracking the GFS tonight... lol

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda.gfs_mslpa_us_33.png

Unorthodox is a correct term.

Just the beginning of signals. But if atm any where near correct. 

There will be a strong upslope flow on the eastern side of the Apps. A strong east to NW flow back against the apps.

From VA mountains to NC mountains potential see a huge snowstorm. 

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Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 

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11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Truly, what an unorthodox system. I would beware of any modeled precipitation field given the convective feedback on any global model right now. I will be willing to bet the pressure field won't verify like this, no matter the setup. Chances are, the secondary low will not be near Bermuda.gfs_mslpa_us_33.png

Track like that signals big snows for WNC/SVA. Any further east and you're going to start getting a good bit of the board excited. Long long way to go with this however good to see HP parked near Toronto. 

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Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 
Track, position, timing, where the HP sets up in the northeast to produce the CAD... there are a LOT of parts here

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6 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 

There are so many dynamics that come into play when you have all this energy floating around. I am merely an amateur myself, so I am sure someone could answer with more knowledge, but there are no dumb questions. That's why this board exists!  

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Track like that signals big snows for WNC/SVA. Any further east and you're going to start getting a good bit of the board excited. Long long way to go with this however good to see HP parked near Toronto. 
Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.)

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2 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 

Typically for a good SE snowstorm to happen 

You need a Texas low  crossing the GOM up the EC. High pressure.  To the north.

But this system dropping in from the NW. Its weird. 

Typically when a system drops in from the NW it doesn't work out. Maybe a clipper 

But atm extremely weird. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning here. What needs to happen with storm for it to be colder and get more of us in the game? Is this strictly track related or way more complicated than that? Wow said earlier Anyone north of ULL would be game on. Sorry for dumb questions 

Imho I think you asked great questions. Limited knowledge thinking would have me tell you root for a stronger high and the block to not be transient in eastern Canada and to hold. Stronger the LP colder the high better results in my opinion. Want ridge to be a little taller out west. Lots to disseminate as the PAC NW just chucks these shortwaves out. Other issue is in some instances we have sparse data up in Canada to where as these ripples come through H5 may take some swings for better or worse. Encouraging the euro finally is wanting to have a similar idea the GFS has been showing.

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.)

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It's great to see the GFS be consistent with some type of storm for a while now... would love for the EURO to hop on board and display some fireworks...

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

It's great to see the GFS be consistent with some type of storm for a while now... would love for the EURO to hop on board and display some fireworks...

Euro is literally a tick away imo from showing something much bigger and this has been showcased by some on here and mid Atlantic. It's starting to sniff out something that resembles what the GFS and GEFS have been showcasing run after run without a hiccup. Maybe the upgrade has done wonders. Would love to know verification scores since the upgrade. 

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.)

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That's my thought too.

With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm.  Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps.

A eastern upslope snow storm.

If signals continue. 

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40 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

LOCK IT IN

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You do realize that out of 20 members that 3..... only 3. Gave you any snow right?  And of those 3.....  most people would view 2 of them as throw away runs.  

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That's my thought too.
With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm.  Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps.
A eastern upslope snow storm.
If signals continue. 

Good catch . That would be awesome!!


.

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You do realize that out of 20 members that 3..... only 3. Gave you any snow right?  And of those 3.....  most people would view 2 of them as throw away runs.  
Who cares? I want SOMEBODY here to see a white Christmas dang it, seems the Carolinas are always "no snow for you" land this time of the month

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Who cares? I want SOMEBODY here to see a white Christmas dang it, seems the Carolinas are always "no snow for you" land this time of the month

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Well, that's because climatology speaking, odds are against us. White Christmas's are a rarity here. I would love it too, but you have to be realistic. Following one specific run will cause great disappointment, in most cases. 

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35 minutes ago, FLweather said:

That's my thought too.

With the evolution of h5 as being shown atm.  Favors a strong Se to NW. Backing against the apps.

A eastern upslope snow storm.

If signals continue. 

Almost like a tropical system 

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