TellicoWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Just saw the max 41.7",where is that? WNC mtns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm afraid to say anything. Too many times I've seen the rug pulled out last minute. That EURO map was beautiful. It kind of tears me up a little. I haven't seen over 6 inches from one storm since 1996. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Just saw the max 41.7",where is that? Probably Mount Mitchell...look at the shading there. Someday I'm going to throw myself into one of those storms at a highly favorable spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 My god. It's beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Wow. That map is AMAZING. I would like to cash in now please. I am still expecting Knoxville to get a warm nose (just to temper my excitement and climatology), but if we could get half that I would be pleased. Looks like most of the rest of the forum can cash in as well! On another note, I'm not getting any work done this week. Retire indeed, it literally would be the type of storm youd prolly never see again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hopefully the Knoxville peeps will check back in. Those are just crazy snow totals. From an analysis standpoint, the high pressure over the top was 1-2mb stronger and pressing more than 0z. You could see it right away on that run. It also did not get out of the way. Looks like the TROWAL(?) pivoted over this area. North Knox Co checking in. I’m usually here but I don’t post much. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You know, I have no idea of that ever comes to pass. That is an awesome and extreme run. It almost grabbed an extra fetch off the Atlantic. I would love to completely discount the run so as not to put myself through the "misery" of it(the track) not verifying...but it did almost the same thing at 0z. That is at least the second run of its type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I think I may retire from the wx hobby deal after this run. Might as well go out on top.I’ve been following storms on various forums starting out in 2008 on the old Accuweather forums and Toot’s old forum and I will have to say that the 12z has the highest totals I have ever seen modeled by any model for NETN and surrounding areas. That goes down #1 of all time for fantasy runs. That being said I’m at work and haven’t had to chance to look at why that run was different from the 0z Euro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro Kuchera 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: You know, I have no idea of that ever comes to pass. That is an awesome and extreme run. It almost grabbed an extra fetch off the Atlantic. I would love to completely discount the run so as not to put myself through the miser of it not verifying...but it did almost the same thing at 0z. That is at least the second run of its type. EPS will be interesting..previous 3 have had similar members as that OP run for TYS and slowly increasing each run. 00z had 7 members with 6"+ output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 The pieces were still there in nearly the same places at 0z, but still quite a bit of bounce. It was all there this time. Just the right amount of NE confluence. Just the right size and angle for the W. ridge. Just the right timing for both chunks of energy. Man I wish this were the first run after the energy came on shore! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, 1234snow said: I’ve been following storms on various forums starting out in 2008 on the old Accuweather forums and Toot’s old forum and I will have to say that the 12z has the highest totals I have ever seen modeled by any model for NETN and surrounding areas. That goes down #1 of all time for fantasy runs. That being said I’m at work and haven’t had to chance to look at why that run was different from the 0z Euro. That is what is crazy. It is not very different at all. It just sort of doubled-down. SLP slides by and goes up the coast. The precip grabs moisture off the Atlantic a bit more so this time....but basically the same track. I have no huge visions of those totals IMBY, but the track is basically the same track from 0z. The high was a bit stronger as noted earlier. The high pressed south more. You could see it right away. But I went back and toggled the 0z and 12z, and they are very similar runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: EPS will be interesting..previous 3 have had similar members as that OP run for TYS and slowly increasing each run. 00z had 7 members with 6"+ output. It has had a pretty steady mean as has the GEFS. But yeah, it will be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The pieces were still there in nearly the same places at 0z, but still quite a bit of bounce. It was all there this time. Just the right amount of NE confluence. Just the right size and angle for the W. ridge. Just the right timing for both chunks of energy. Man I wish this were the first run after the energy came on shore! Not to sound too Willy Wonka, but if that NS energy were to ever speed up and fully phase, this storm could be even crazier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'd be giddy with 25 percent of the Euro verifying here. 00z Euro had 12-16 inches here. The UKIE is 12+. The FV3 has been throwing around 20 inch totals at various times. So it definitely has the potential to be the biggest bust ever based on modeling. I've seen the DGEX throw out 30 inches at day 7 before. Never seen there Euro show more that 15 inches imby at any range since I started following weather that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 John done got TROWAL'd! 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Think Jeff used some reverse psychology on the Euro that run (except for poor Hamilton Co) lol jk. ill take a 1/2 inch lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bango said: Retire indeed, it literally would be the type of storm youd prolly never see again? Maybe, maybe not. Us old folks remember the Blizzard of '93 like it was yesterday (I hate to admit I was already 28 years old when it hit). While it wouldn't be the "same type of storm" this run verifying would be in the same league with it for being a memorable event! I hope to live long enough to see another 20"+ snow in our area and be able to enjoy it! LOL Of course I'm already at the age where if I die tomorrow no one will go "Oh he was so YOUNG!" We've all been through these runs before and know how crucial each little wiggle and/or wobble can be. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy this run until the next one breaks my heart. Or not. Thanks for all the great disco folks!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: John done got TROWAL'd! I'm pretty sure we all got it on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The snow depth map isn't terribly different from the snowfall map. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, kvskelton said: Maybe, maybe not. Us old folks remember the Blizzard of '93 like it was yesterday (I hate to admit I was already 28 years old when it hit). While it wouldn't be the "same type of storm" this run verifying would be in the same league with it for being a memorable event! I hope to live long enough to see another 20"+ snow in our area and be able to enjoy it! LOL Of course I'm already at the age where if I die tomorrow no one will go "Oh he was so YOUNG!" We've all been through these runs before and know how crucial each little wiggle and/or wobble can be. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy this run until the next one breaks my heart. Or not. Thanks for all the great disco folks!!! Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right? ....And no sledding on dumpster lids up in the Fort(Sanders for non-Knoxville folks). I took some hills at UT on a cafeteria tray on the backside of the engineering campus and along the edges of some parking garages that my older, wiser self sort of cringes about when I walk by those areas at football games. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right? In all fairness, it would be Buffalo Trace and I only smoke if I'm on fire! Good to see you here Stove! (My apologies for the OT post folks. No more of those from me today!) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z EPS increasing totals again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z EPS...cant ask for too much more at 5 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hot off the press: MRX's abbreviated afternoon disco. For Friday and Saturday, strengthening southwest flow from southern Plains trough will increase the isentropic lift over the area. Depending on how fast the precipitation moves into the region, the precipitation may begin as a mixture of snow and sleet, and then change to all of rain except possibly for far eastern Tennessee Mountains. For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto- genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains), and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere. For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will include this potential snowstorm within the HWO. System pulls out for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 No sooner does Jeff post about the conveyor belt, it appears 30 minutes later in the MRX disco. They may be watching, Jeff! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 EPS snow probs. These seem to be posting for me, but let me know if they aren't showing up. Probabilities of > 3 inches of snow. Greater than 6 inches. Greater than 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: EPS snow probs. These seem to be posting for me, but let me know if they aren't showing up. Greater than 12 inches. Just to have a probability this far out of a foot is really impressive. That 50+% for the mountains is crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, TellicoWx said: 12z EPS...cant ask for too much more at 5 days out Definitely a good look for our northern and eastern part of forum. I could use a jog south a few miles but what’s new! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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