John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Despite basically every feature looking better regarding placement of highs and lows vs it's prior run, the GFS significantly cut snow totals from it's prior run for the forum area. Especially those north of 40 from Dyersburg to the Plateau to Johnson City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The GFS doesn't make sense to me. Things seem to be trending in a positive direction overall for East TN but the output doesn't execute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What FV3 site are you using...looks like the FV3 stopped at 12z on hour 144? I need an alternate site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Despite basically every feature looking better regarding placement of highs and lows vs it's prior run, the GFS significantly cut snow totals from it's prior run for the forum area. Especially those north of 40 from Dyersburg to the Plateau to Johnson City. Yep, I was looking at feature placements as it was coming in and thinking this run will be much better in the snow department for Tennesseans. I was pretty surprised to see it go the other way. Not that I am going to give more weight to the happy hour GFS vs. the most recent Euro run. By the way, who broke the FV3? Never completed it's 12z run and hasn't started 18z... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 This one seems to have it past 144: https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fv3-gfs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Temperature_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=162&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=Temperature_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If that GFS were to verify, that is going to be one cold, cold rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: If that GFS were to verify, that is going to be one cold, cold rainstorm! Maybe its the computer trying to temper expectations to keep hype from running wild! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 It would be the most heartbreaking set up I could imagine. A once in maybe 20 year set up with precip for something like 60 hours, a TROWAL, and it is rain and 34... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Icon is warmer I believe but not sure we were considering it anyway . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Will wait overnight for the Euro - after all - it is only early December and there are many more model runs between now and the end solution - look at the general patterns not the single model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Icon is warmer I believe but not sure we were considering it anyway . True. It has been pretty warm so far, but yeah, I usually give it consideration. I think it is one realistic possibility. Definitely interested in the GEFS when it rolls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 In the last big storm in the midwest from about 110 -120 hours out I looked at how the GFS vs. Euro did with the 850 low at the same future time stamp. Basically, who had the higher margin of error. Image 1: GFS at range Image 2: GFS near verification Image 3: Euro at range Image 4: Euro near verification time Not saying this one will play out this way, but maybe we have the Euro's margin of error in our favor here? I know the "forecast hours" of the GFS vs Euro I have aren't precisely matched up, but the Euro did better with and even longer lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GEFS ensemble mean snowfall accum. looks tighter to the northern edge (out of our area) with about the same cut off to the south. Totals look higher for SW VA and NE TN. Looking at all the individual members, I have to say they are all south of 12z, overall. EDIT: shouldn't say all, what I meant was overall, looking at the 20 Ensembles, there are more south than at 12z, if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Watching the models over the past few days the thorn in everyone's sides has been the temperatures. I don't get it... It seems like no matter how favorable the set-up is the model operationals are hell-bent on staying above freezing. This isn't just an issue south of I-40... it affects everyone west of the eastern continental divide. It falls into the fear of being locked at 34 degrees for 48 hours straight watching WNC get plastered. Well disregarding my grumbling about that it can't take away what I'm seeing right now and I'm sure you all have had to tolerate countless near misses. As we get closer the operationals will become what we primarily rely on and right now the inner weenie in me wants to hang on to the ensemble means for dear life. Hey at least the Euro has consistently been in my favor up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Also, check out our energy's tropical connection: https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv+today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GEFS mean....I think this is the best so far. Its snow axis went a bit south compared to the 12z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z GEFS mean....I think this is the best so far. Its snow axis went a bit south compared to the 12z GEFS. Good news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Good news . Now if that could translate to something on an operational I'd feel better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I thought I'd go ahead and steal this from the SE forum. Something to gaze at before 0z. I hope we get FV3 back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hearing that the 18z Euro is south of 12z. No details as to exactly what that means in terms of High/ Low placement. This is coming from the SE forum and another weatherboard. Euro is running at 6z and 18z now, but not sure exactly how it works. Here is an image I stole. The resolution is horrible, but is the best I got. Anyone subscribe to a site that has it? I think the left is 18z and the right is 12z, but have no clue based on the resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Hearing that the 18z Euro is south of 12z. No details as to exactly what that means in terms of High/ Low placement. This is coming from the SE forum and another weatherboard. Euro is running at 6z and 18z now, but not sure exactly how it works. Here is an image I stole. The resolution is horrible, but is the best I got. Anyone subscribe to a site that has it? I think the left is 18z and the right is 12z, but have no clue based on the resolution. Then I “think” they said the 18z EPS was a tick north. I could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm most interested in the 00Z Euro, like everyone else. I didn't know they had off-hour runs of the Euro... Is the 00Z at 1 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 To be totally honest (and I know people like me in the central valley are on the razor's edge with this one) it doesn't look terribly different to me other than the high may be a little plumper. It looks like it extends into NC a little more, so I could see why they would like that. Maybe a touch slower with the surface low? EDIT: Carver's is right, "they" did say the 18z EPS was south, but they also said the 18z Op was north of 12z. I should also add that what they consider north or south may be very different from what someone in our area does, because we are looking for different set ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 My mind is now blown as well ha. There is an 18z euro, and fv3 has decided to go kapoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z FV3 just came out to play! South and more Euro-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z FV3 just came out to play! South and more Euro-ish. A weird run to achieve a similiar result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z FV3 just came out to play! South and more Euro-ish. It is basically the 18z GFS run w the output that we would have expected with that track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z FV3 slowly coming in on tropical tidbits and boy is it a good one. Dynamical cooling really takes effect. Here’s the clown out to 126. There are some frames there and not there after this time frame. But it appears that some snow sticks around to hour 150. So this map will go up some once it loads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I thought she might be dipping to Cuba there at the start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 V3 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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