TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 120 it starts it's transfer to the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like the slp is slightly faster and slightly SE of 0z. The allowed the banana high to hold in place. I will try to drop a comparison in here in a minute. Place is running really slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Shew if that low would hug the nc coast a bit more, would be quite epic for east tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 All models have gotten very similar at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hot off the press.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Forgive the brief IMBYism, but models are once again honing in on Greene Co. as the battleground, with a gradient of >6" to upwards of 1' from west to east. Classic. For much of East TN, this may well mirror Dec 18-19, 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I believe the system will be fully sampled for the 0z runs, including the piece of Northern stream energy. Hopefully better news comes for more of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 @Blue Ridge, I agree w the 09-10 comparisons. I think blunder had even mentioned that as well. Here are the comparisons from 0z(top) and 12z(bottom). You know the 6z off-run of the Euro signaled the nudge south. It looked like it was coming north early in the run as temps warmed a hair compared to 0z. That said, the precip shield was noticeably flatter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Of coarse I am right here. Would take much though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I'm focusing on that too. The position of the low at 850mb makes a huge difference for parts of East TN. We want the flow over our region to have more of an easterly component and less of a southerly component. For multiple reasons (less WAA, less downslope potential…). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caitsaunt Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I've read every word of this thread, I'm enjoying following the speculation. I have a question about travel, too. I am driving from Opryland to Chattanooga Sunday morning. I'm mainly worried about Monteagle - any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A great run of the Euro here with 1.3 in. IMBY atm! Yahoo! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This morning Huntsville WFO was pretty bullish for the 850 low/clipper giving them a decent amount of snow. So I feel like there's still hope for our southern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Of coarse I am right here. Would take much though. Classic Valley warm nose. 850 low will make or break everything SW of 81/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 As a bonus, the EURO spits out .25 or so of freezing rain just over my area with some sleet totals approaching an inch in the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This morning Huntsville WFO was pretty bullish for the 850 low/clipper giving them a decent amount of snow. So I feel like there's still hope for our southern areas. Agree, a storm with this many moving pieces should continue to be watched. This 12z run leaves the door open and let's you know not all corrections are going to be north with this storm. Just get the 850 low beneath TN cruising west to east, and let's see that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 At this point, it is all about trends and then looking at ensembles. That was a good trend at 12z by the Euro, even for folks north of 40 w/out snow in E TN. The snow axis came south. Going to be a sharp cut-off in NE TN. I have been on both sides of that line. I have no confidence which side I will be on yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Math/Met said: I'm focusing on that too. The position of the low at 850mb makes a huge difference for parts of East TN. We want the flow over our region to have more of an easterly component and less of a southerly component. For multiple reasons (less WAA, less downslope potential…). I'm kinda at a loss on that run, looked great but for some reason it shoots the 850s up the valley at 90/96...trying to find the driver for it and at a loss. If not for that it would have been a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Very weird couple frames...it wants to jump the 850 vort (that is traveling due east) in northern MS/AL, into the KY/TN line due north at a 90 def turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Interestingly, that is not the only snow event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ZR/sleet removed Euro snow map. I found this interesting, the little snow hole in Eastern Claiborne County in the middle of the pink and purple is a small area that the Euro shows getting almost 2 inches of sleet. Same in that blue strip in Bell County Kentucky just north of Middlesboro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: ZR/sleet removed Euro snow map. I found this interesting, the little snow hole in Eastern Claiborne County in the middle of the pink and purple is a small area that the Euro shows getting almost 2 inches of sleet. Same in that blue strip in Bell County Kentucky just north of Middlesboro. I could be wrong, but I think more snow falls after 9z on Monday....maybe 3 more inches in NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 There are places in NE TN that received 5-8" more later in the run. The 10d total map is ridiculous for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I could be wrong, but I think more snow falls after 9z on Monday....maybe 3 more inches in NE TN. I'm sure it does, that was just the map I was able to find! I do like that that site seems to do well removing the sleet/zr from the equation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I'm sure it does, that was just the map I was able to find! I do like that that site seems to do well removing the sleet/zr from the equation. I do to. Would be nice to see both amounts, sleet and snow. If that run verifies, we are going to get a mess along the northern border from your region over to TRI. It will be lots of precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: As a bonus, the EURO spits out .25 or so of freezing rain just over my area with some sleet totals approaching an inch in the area too. I somehow missed this post. Agree. Yeah, if this moves in at night and traps the cold air in the Valley...there may be places to our south that deal with some ice until the warm nose kicks in. For northern areas, they may struggle to get above freezing(northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I do to. Would be nice to see both amounts, sleet and snow. If that run verifies, we are going to get a mess along the northern border from your region over to TRI. It will be lots of precip types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 After looking over everything, I believe the Euro is having some problems on how to handle the transfer to the coastal. When it begins it's transfer over N AL, it splits the low into two distinct pieces #1 due North to the middle TN/KY border, #2 ESE into GA heading for the coast. The transfer should have been more smoothly. Due to this odd scenario, it shoots the 850s way up over East TN responding to the #1 piece. A smoother transfer and this would have been an even more major storm for the board. Sorry for the long post. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The duration of the event is pretty awesome, with some regions east being in the midst of a 50 plus hour event depending on the east coast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: That is nasty in the Carolinas and Georgia. Shew. Think you all had some WAA come in at higher elevation on the Plateau for that to be modeled that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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