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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.

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4 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Some of these clown maps are so confusing.

And how about that FV-3 map, depicting at least 1 foot (most places more) from RDU to CLT, across to Asheville, to the Triad, up to Danville? Has that ever happened before across a wide area across the state?

Yes

ljS1kQ5.png

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.

Agree 100%. A trend would be over all models (or most) for a couple of time periods for me as well.

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5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south

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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way.

I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.

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Just now, griteater said:

We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south

Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150.  Think it would be better up that way for snow?

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.

Oh I got ya. I don't know why I thought you were in Athens. :lol:

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Just now, Waiting on snow said:

Oh I got ya. I don't know why I thought you were in Athens. :lol:

I was at this time last year, but have since come back north after graduating last spring. 

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Agreed...it's been super juicy...but all things considered...it's gonna be some great totals up here and we had about 4 with today's thump of snow

I was making a jab at a guy that use to be on the forums several years “WilkesboroDude” that got the boot for being a drama queen and he’s known for saying the skies hadn’t healed enough to get a lot of precip.
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6 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150.  Think it would be better up that way for snow?

I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here.  For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here.  For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics

Yep. Also a lot of moving parts. The good news is the big models are still holding serve so people should be using that as a guide not an exact map. The players we want are there, now it's just going to be how they all align. 

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This is slowly trending from what appeared to be a near miss to a potential major snowfall for RDU. But will a warm nose appear is the question. 

The latest FV3 keeps temperatures below freezing here all day Sunday with no changeover to rain. 

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Just now, griteater said:

I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here.  For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics

Grit, 

I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup?  I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! 

 

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If the surface low turns up the coast like most of them do, then yes there will be a warm nose well inland. If the slp is a slider, mainly moving east like has been modeled now for many days and the CAD is established, then there will likely be no substantial warm nose.

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4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Grit, 

I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup?  I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! 

 

This to me isn't your standard Miller A it's taking that track but it's more a big overrunning event taking a Miller A track...but maybe I'm wrong with that. If this follows the models like GSP said it's historic. That's the thing about making history, there's nothing to really compare it to. 

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5 minutes ago, CyclonicFury said:

This is slowly trending from what appeared to be a near miss to a potential major snowfall for RDU. But will a warm nose appear is the question. 

The latest FV3 keeps temperatures below freezing here all day Sunday with no changeover to rain. 

Today was a good day on the models for RDU but like Grit, I believe there will be more changes to come.  We have a lot more model runs to go...LOL!

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Yep. Also a lot of moving parts. The good news is the big models are still holding serve so people should be using that as a guide not an exact map. The players we want are there, now it's just going to be how they all align. 

IceBURG, 

I posted a question earlier, which I am wondering what your take would be. Do you recall or have seen where the Charlotte area has TRULY cashed in on a Miller A type of storm? I mean...sure, we have received the 3-6" with ip and zr also mixed from these systems, but have we TRULY scored lets say...12-16" (for example) from these types of setups? Or has anyone else in the carolinas scored (excluding the Mountain Regions)? Thanks and oh...I tagged you on FB about the Cantore Curse. He has touched down in CLT. I HOPE he is not planning on staying here. UGH...LMAO

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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This to me isn't your standard Miller A it's taking that track but it's more a big overrunning event taking a Miller A track...but maybe I'm wrong with that. If this follows the models like GSP said it's historic. That's the thing about making history, there's nothing to really compare it to. 

Thanks man! Wow...you answered my question to Grit and I had decided to pose this question to you as well. Pretty cool. Anyways, what do you think about the question on if we have ever scored BIG on any Miller A's (excluding the Mountains). I used the 12"+ as criteria. I am only asking, so I can see if we can find any data to correlate to this system. Thanks again man. I sure wish you were here. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

IceBURG, 

I posted a question earlier, which I am wondering what your take would be. Do you recall or have seen where the Charlotte area has TRULY cashed in on a Miller A type of storm? I mean...sure, we have received the 3-6" with ip and zr also mixed from these systems, but have we TRULY scored lets say...12-16" (for example) from these types of setups? Or has anyone else in the carolinas scored (excluding the Mountain Regions)? Thanks and oh...I tagged you on FB about the Cantore Curse. He has touched down in CLT. I HOPE he is not planning on staying here. UGH...LMAO

I answered above. We do have somethings going against. Climo being one...but like alot of storms in your neck of the woods you gotta look at the models and roll the dice. The setup is what you want. Lots of moisture and a good enough cold air feed. Like I said this feels less like a true Miller A where it really bombs out on the coast and more like a slider that takes a Miller A track...again if that makes sense. Maybe I'm wrong though about that assessment. I still am a bit sceptical on totals but even if you slice them in half it's still a significant possibly historic storm. 

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@72 things are starting to take shape. A few changes but to my eye it looks a tad colder than the 00z run. Low is closed off in Texas...this doesn't look quite as wet in LA but again not so much of a difference it's alarming or anything. 

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