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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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32 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

 Growing up in the Mid-Atl, April is probably the only month I would swap vs here in VT. Maybe early May I guess too sometimes. The rest I would take VT over there, and its not really that close honestly comparing month to month for me.

Definitely heard some complaining about the wind/cold/snow this morning dropping the kids off.   Non Weenies are for sure over it--and we don't even have any snow left on the ground here and had only like half an inch this morning! ha

I’ve long said that if I were to go south in retirement it would be March 15 - May 15 or maybe even June 1. These months are the worst. I don’t even mind stick season as I like the feeling of impending winter. Mud season just plain sucks. 

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

March summary - cold and not particularly snowy, though good for pack retention.

Avg max:  35.7   2.6 BN   Highest: 52 on 3/31, lowest:  16 on 3/6
Avg. min:  10.8   5.1 BN   Coldest:  -20 on 3/8 (also winter's coldest, 4th time that's come in March.)  Mildest min:  31, on 3 days
Avg. mean:  23.2  3.9 BN   4th coldest of 21, with all 4 coming in the past 6 years.

Precip:  2.60"   1.04" BN   Greatest day:  1.04" on 3/22  (1.5" SN = 0.9" of low 30s RA.)
Snow:  11.7"   5.9" BN   Biggest snowfall:  5.0" on 3/4
Tallest pack:  41" on 3/10.  Lowest:  26" on 3/31.   Avg. depth:  34.7", 2nd (though distant) only to 2008. 

Nice!  Seems like your place has good retention, even with the increasing March sun angle.

Was looking through an old amwx thread on the snowiest towns in New England, and came across this:  Fort Kent 5,715 SDDs (83-84)

1983-84 must have been a fun winter up there.  Here in the Midwest, we had one of the great arctic outbreaks around Christmas, with Chicago's coldest mean daily temp on record (-18; -11 high, -25 low) on 12/24/1983.  I was only 9 years old, but it's the first weather event I remember. 

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28 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

 Growing up in the Mid-Atl, April is probably the only month I would swap vs here in VT. Maybe early May I guess too sometimes. The rest I would take VT over there, and its not really that close honestly comparing month to month for me.

Definitely heard some complaining about the wind/cold/snow this morning dropping the kids off.   Non Weenies are for sure over it--and we don't even have any snow left on the ground here and had only like half an inch this morning! ha

Yeah, I hear it around as well; it just seems like it’s the same old bitching and moaning that happens every year (sort of like the requisite bitching and moaning that has to be done about April weather in SNE).

I can’t say I like this time of year as much as fall, but there are so many things about it that I really enjoy.  I love the ridiculously deep snowpack in the local mountains, the elevation snowstorms that deliver those great late-season powder days, the soft spring skiing days, the deserted ski resorts and rock-bottom prices on lodging and other amenities, the long-lasting light for ski touring, the fact that I don’t have to spend time mowing my lawn until around Memorial Day because it’s dormant, etc., etc.

I don’t even plan to pull out the bike or other warm weather stuff until around Memorial Day/June 1st, and by then, the weather is appropriate.  That’s just about the time most practical skiing is finishing up, but until that point though, the skiing is typically great.  Mother Nature actually has things synchronized pretty well as far as I’m concerned, but just like in the fall, folks are often chomping at the bit to move on to whatever is supposed to be next.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, I hear it around as well; it just seems like it’s the same old bitching and moaning that happens every year (sort of like the requisite bitching and moaning that has to be done about April weather in SNE).

I can’t say I like this time of year as much as fall, but there are so many things about it that I really enjoy.  I love the ridiculously deep snowpack in the local mountains, the elevation snowstorms that deliver those great late-season powder days, the soft spring skiing days, the deserted ski resorts and rock-bottom prices on lodging and other amenities, the long-lasting light for ski touring, the fact that I don’t have to spend time mowing my lawn until around Memorial Day because it’s dormant, etc., etc.

I don’t even plan to pull out the bike or other warm weather stuff until around Memorial Day/June 1st, and by then, the weather is appropriate.  That’s just about the time most practical skiing is finishing up, but until that point though, the skiing is typically great.  Mother Nature actually has things synchronized pretty well as far as I’m concerned, but just like in the fall, folks are often chomping at the bit to move on to whatever is supposed to be next.

Yes, I meant to mention that I could see people enjoying the Spring skiing, empty crowds, etc--that is a perk. I'm not a die hard and someone who only got out about 8-10 times this year and mostly because my kids started their junior program in school. Non spring skiing related, the day to day weather is pretty crappy for the most part.

Speaking of kids skiing--was thinking of asking you, or @mreaves, @borderwx (I think VT natives?) or anyone else really, is it normal for most schools in VT to give half days during the winter months 1 day a week to go skiing?  Its cool that they do that around here for grades K-12, nice for kids to be able to get out there and enjoy what the local geography has to offer.  I was curious how many school districts offered that around VT-guessing mainly ones within a somewhat close proximity to a local hill--no idea.

 

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yes, I meant to mention that I could see people enjoying the Spring skiing, empty crowds, etc--that is a perk. I'm not a die hard and someone who only got out about 8-10 times this year and mostly because my kids started their junior program in school. Non spring skiing related, the day to day weather is pretty crappy for the most part.

Speaking of kids skiing--was thinking of asking you, or @mreaves, @borderwx (I think VT natives?) or anyone else really, is it normal for most schools in VT to give half days during the winter months 1 day a week to go skiing?  Its cool that they do that around here for grades K-12, nice for kids to be able to get out there and enjoy what the local geography has to offer.  I was curious how many school districts offered that around VT-guessing mainly ones within a somewhat close proximity to a local hill--no idea.

 

Most have ski programs but no half days. Most in this area do Bolton after school so it bleeds into night skiing. 

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Foundation program for our local elementary schools. 7 full days at Jay scattered throughout the season. morning group lessons, afternoon fun ski. Our last is this Thursday..Caledonia county has the same at Burke. 

FWIW: I’m a Mainer hiding in VT:)

 

 

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13 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Speaking of kids skiing--was thinking of asking you, or @mreaves, @borderwx (I think VT natives?) or anyone else really, is it normal for most schools in VT to give half days during the winter months 1 day a week to go skiing?  Its cool that they do that around here for grades K-12, nice for kids to be able to get out there and enjoy what the local geography has to offer.  I was curious how many school districts offered that around VT-guessing mainly ones within a somewhat close proximity to a local hill--no idea.

I am a native Vermonter (although certainly not seven generations on my dad’s side, so not quite by the hard core definition).  The half days off during the week for skiing/other winter sports is quite variable, and as you surmised, it can depend on proximity to a local hill.  Growing up in the Champlain Valley School District, we didn’t have any of the midweek days off, but we did have the Bolton Valley afternoon/evening programs that mreaves mentioned.  In the school program that we currently participate in through Stowe Mountain Resort, the schools seem to have a mix of midweek and weekend days.  For our boy’s grammar/middle school (BJAMS), the time slot is Sunday afternoons, but for the Stowe School System, they have a Friday Program, which has long been a tradition there.  Having a designated midweek day seems to be more common in the mountain towns local to the resorts, but even there it’s still quite variable.

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18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Nice!  Seems like your place has good retention, even with the increasing March sun angle.

Was looking through an old amwx thread on the snowiest towns in New England, and came across this:  Fort Kent 5,715 SDDs (83-84)

1983-84 must have been a fun winter up there.  Here in the Midwest, we had one of the great arctic outbreaks around Christmas, with Chicago's coldest mean daily temp on record (-18; -11 high, -25 low) on 12/24/1983.  I was only 9 years old, but it's the first weather event I remember. 

1983-84 was only 3rd of my 10 winters there with 171", 15" below both 76-77 and 81-82, but for LE it was tops.  Nov-Dec combined had 16" precip and 73" snow, plus 2 ice storms - minor one near T-Day and a bigger one mid-Dec, and we entered the new year with 30"+ and a mid-pack crust that would carry a bull moose.  After an average-snow January, early Feb brought a surprise 18.5" overnight dump (forecast was 1-3", FK schools closed, one and only full-day closure we saw up there) that briefly covered the 61" stake.  Late Feb thaw compacted things top about 35" before a medium storm brought it back to low 40s ahead of the 26.5" storm of 3/14-15; 65" at the stake, 80" at the northern tip of Maine.  No more siggy snows, but wx stayed cool well into April.  May then turned out AN with very little rain, and the 15-20" LE melted off w/o a hint of flooding.

Thru a silly amount of patience, I took a core from the crust noted above.  It was 3" thick, with 1.25" of ZR-annealed IP top and bottom, 1/2" of clear ice in the middle, and 1.90" LE.

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Ran a snow survey at 1,500ft and found a lot of snow.  

Depths in the study plot area were 42-44" with 15" of water.  

Branching out along the Barnes Camp boardwalk to the Long Trail revealed some 50" depths around the beaver ponds.  

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As March is in the books and move onward into April, I took a look at where the current season sits among others in my data set.  While this season is behind some others such as 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 in terms of total snowfall to date, it is now setting the bar in at least one category:  number of storms.  The old record for number of accumulating storms during a season was 58 in 2013-2014, but current season has moved right past that number.  This season is currently at 61 storms and counting, and for the first time ever, I had to add a fourth column to the data in my AmWx signature image:

Wxsig.jpg

This season has also been a strong one for snowpack, so it’s also going to come out tops in snow-depth-days for the period of my data set.

Average April snowfall at our site would put this season’s snowfall around the 200” mark, but we’ll just have to see how the month plays out.  The models definitely show several possible storms with chances for snow right out through mid-month, so it does look like there will be opportunities for additional snowfall on the season.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ran a snow survey at 1,500ft and found a lot of snow.  

Depths in the study plot area were 42-44" with 15" of water.  

Branching out along the Barnes Camp boardwalk to the Long Trail revealed some 50" depths around the beaver ponds.  

That’s very cool PF, such an impressive amount of water still in the pack.  Are you going to run a snow survey at the 3,000’ plot as well?

I really hadn’t been back by the boardwalk and those beaver ponds until a couple months back when I did some sidecountry there with my older son.  For those that aren’t familiar with the area, I actually labeled Barnes Camp on my map from the day:

27JAN19F.jpg

It’s such an interesting, relatively broad area of the notch, and really cool and accessible when it’s all frozen and covered with snow.  It can probably hold the cold quite well.  We dropped in from the main entrance near the top of the Sunny Spruce Quad (there’s probably a name for that area, but I don’t know what it is) and generally headed skier’s left.  This brought us down among the ponds and the boardwalks, but I guess you can also head to the right and get some of those lines father up in the notch.

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38 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

This season has also been a strong one for snowpack, so it’s also going to come out tops in snow-depth-days for the period of my data set.

Average April snowfall at our site would put this season’s snowfall around the 200” mark, but we’ll just have to see how the month plays out.  The models definitely show several possible storms with chances for snow right out through mid-month, so it does look like there will be opportunities for additional snowfall on the season.

This season passed 2013-14 for 2nd most last week, currently at 3,098.  That's 261 ahead of 13-14 but 737 back of 07-08.  My guess for final total is 3,300 or a bit over.  Having continuous snow cover begin on Nov. 10 sure piles up the SDDs.  Today makes 144 consecutive days with cover, 2 ahead of 13-14 and 14-15, and barring a flood-causing torch-deluge in the near future, that streak should pass 155 before the garden reappears from under the snow.  My made-up "retention metric" (SDDs divided by total snowfall) is also tops this year.  2013-14 finished at 28, 2007-08 a tad under 27, but this year it's over 30.
 

That’s very cool PF, such an impressive amount of water still in the pack.  Are you going to run a snow survey at the 3,000’ plot as well?

Snow-core tubes I've seen in the East look about 6' long - don't think that would reach bottom at 3,000', at least not until a few weeks from now.

 

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Tamarack is right...the Adirondack Snow Sampler is 60" tall and was fairly useless the last time I went up high with it.  The snow is so dense too I couldn't press it into the tube either.  So for the time being I'm not gonna take it back up there as even at 3000ft the depth is probably 80" or so.

Given this is at the base of the mountain, this tool will be fairly inefficient another 1,500ft up the hill. 

IMG_2748.JPG.eaf9f196509c05d26d943256f5b53133.JPG

IMG_2749.JPG.f92ebac636e164bc71c2a7de4c9a88fa.JPG

IMG_2750.JPG.9ba5f31eebd0e5abec520cb0cf9dbc71.JPG

IMG_2751.JPG.67f40528ab37a92fcad56b670dab41a6.JPG

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Core tubes I've seen (2-3 decades back) were aluminum, with teeth on one end for getting thru crusts, and more like 6' than 5.  Worked the same way - hang from the scale (after picking away any dirt/leaves from the business end) and it reads out in SWE inches.   Those were being used for the official MEMA surveys.

Getting back to your lower elevation sample, looks like the pack is about 35% water.  I've read that when it hits 40%, the melting comes more easily.

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

1983-84 was only 3rd of my 10 winters there with 171", 15" below both 76-77 and 81-82, but for LE it was tops.  Nov-Dec combined had 16" precip and 73" snow, plus 2 ice storms - minor one near T-Day and a bigger one mid-Dec, and we entered the new year with 30"+ and a mid-pack crust that would carry a bull moose.  After an average-snow January, early Feb brought a surprise 18.5" overnight dump (forecast was 1-3", FK schools closed, one and only full-day closure we saw up there) that briefly covered the 61" stake.  Late Feb thaw compacted things top about 35" before a medium storm brought it back to low 40s ahead of the 26.5" storm of 3/14-15; 65" at the stake, 80" at the northern tip of Maine.  No more siggy snows, but wx stayed cool well into April.  May then turned out AN with very little rain, and the 15-20" LE melted off w/o a hint of flooding.

Thru a silly amount of patience, I took a core from the crust noted above.  It was 3" thick, with 1.25" of ZR-annealed IP top and bottom, 1/2" of clear ice in the middle, and 1.90" LE.

Good stuff! 80” depth in a fairly low lying area...yikes.  Out of curiosity, what was your FK depth on 5/1/84...and when did the snow finally melt (excluding plowed piles)?

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ran a snow survey at 1,500ft and found a lot of snow.  

Depths in the study plot area were 42-44" with 15" of water.  

Branching out along the Barnes Camp boardwalk to the Long Trail revealed some 50" depths around the beaver ponds.  

Damn

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14 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Good stuff! 80” depth in a fairly low lying area...yikes.  Out of curiosity, what was your FK depth on 5/1/84...and when did the snow finally melt (excluding plowed piles)?

Don't have my Ft. Kent data at hand, but if memory serves, there was an inch or 2 carried into May, the only year that continuous snow cover lasted past April.  Not the only May snow cover - in my 1st year (1976) living there, we had 1.5" in 45 minutes on May 7, while I was tilling for a garden.  My wife took a pic that showed the color gradient from white to brown, 1st and last tilled.  That was 100' from the St. John River at just above 500'; by 1984 we'd moved to the back settlement at 970'.

Maine has recorded some impressive depths at modest elevation.  In February 2015, with storms pounding eastern Mass and Downeast Maine (and mostly missing MBY), Machias (Downeast) reached 74" depth at 20' elevation after getting 100"+ snowfall in 4 weeks.  Back in 1969, Boston's "hundred hour storm" (26.3" there) dumped 43" at the Farmington co-op, at 420' and 6 miles west of our current home, and brought the co-op depth to 84", tallest I've seen in New England outside of mountain sites like Jay Peak, Mt. Mansfield, and Pinkham Notch.  This last got 77" from that storm and had 164" pack when it was done.  (MWN got 98" but only modest depth as it all blew into Tuckerman Ravine.)  That 2/69 storm also brought 56" to Long Falls Dam at 1150', 40 miles north of Farmington, but had no depth recorded until several days after that dump.

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

gfs_asnow_neus_34.png

I saw that Ginx posted this GFS snowfall map in the April thread.  I get it that it’s just for ribbing in there, but looking at the latest GFS run as well as some of the other models, there are actually five potential shots of snow in the next ten days up here:  one tonight, one Friday, another on Monday, then Wednesday, and then again next Friday.  It’s hard to say how these will all sort themselves out, but with the elevations in play, there’s always potential for something interesting around here.  I’m sure most folks would rather have the slopes switch right to warm sunny days and corn snow skiing, but an active pattern like that is definitely nice vs. the April doldrums that can sometimes happen, where’s it’s not quite warm enough to really soften the slopes, but we also aren’t getting much in the way of snow.

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16 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I saw that Ginx posted this GFS snowfall map in the April thread.  I get it that it’s just for ribbing in there, but looking at the latest GFS run as well as some of the other models, there are actually five potential shots of snow in the next ten days up here:  one tonight, one Friday, another on Monday, then Wednesday, and then again next Friday.  It’s hard to say how these will all sort themselves out, but with the elevations in play, there’s always potential for something interesting around here.  I’m sure most folks would rather have the slopes switch right to warm sunny days and corn snow skiing, but an active pattern like that is definitely nice vs. the April doldrums that can sometimes happen, where’s it’s not quite warm enough to really soften the slopes, but we also aren’t getting much in the way of snow.

No ribbing it ain't over for you guys.

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58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No ribbing it ain't over for you guys.

I am two minds about this.  Of course I like snow and interesting weather in general but I also like other seasons and am ready to start cleaning the yard and swinging the clubs etc.  Of course all the bitching in the world won't change what the weather will do.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I am two minds about this.  Of course I like snow and interesting weather in general but I also like other seasons and am ready to start cleaning the yard and swinging the clubs etc.  Of course all the bitching in the world won't change what the weather will do.

Epic if...... of course not to be taken verbatim but it shows something non spring is up

gfs_asnow_neus_38.png

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A few styrofoam type things blowing around down here too. Didn’t last long but wind has been howling. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Or maybe it shows the long range GFS on a TT map.

You are probably the most literal person ever. Not a bad thing but boy you must be a hoot to live with. Thats sarcasm. GFS showing winter aint over was the point. TT map looks like the weather.us maps, weatherbell maps and even your 1980s style us.gov map you love.

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