Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: And remember-just like the impending relaxation the change back may be rushed. ? Seems like the 13th has been the start forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? Seems like the 13th has been the start forever When it started showing around thanksgiving it was the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 We winter week of 20th on. It’s there globally and modelly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: When it started showing around thanksgiving it was the 8th Must have missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Must have missed that. Don’t you remember it staying at d13+ for 5-6 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Don’t you remember it staying at d13+ for 5-6 days? I recall that....no secret that these changes are usually rushed on guidance, initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to fast forward to Christmas week. That would leave me with no time to do my xmas shopping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 You’re all weenies! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oct/Nov MEI value only .698...good news for sne imo. I'll be surprised if this season does not feature mainly Miller Bs. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html One of my favorite tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: And remember-just like the impending relaxation the change back may be too fast on the guidance. Hmm, the relaxation actually is coming on fast, it don't take long at all for a negative EPO to deliver cold the positive PNA helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Nice private cold for New England next week on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice private cold for New England next week on the euro Lap dances for all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Get out the mai Tai and banana hammocks around the 20th baby. It’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, weathafella said: Don’t you remember it staying at d13+ for 5-6 days? I recall something mentioned about a torch Dec 8th by ventrice and ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get out the mai Tai and banana hammocks around the 20th baby. It’s coming. There goes my pack.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not convinced the last week of December turns active/cold. It looks like EPO doesn't turn negative until the 23rd and cold air associated with the EPO tends to head south first. Don't think much happens, snow wise, until after the new year. Depends... There is no one size fits all EPO ... it's a conditional/circumstantial correlation to temperature anomaly distribution (lag) when the -EPO(+EPO) sets up... For example, on-going +PNA changes the map. If/when that Pac-North American pattern is pushing up the mid latitude western ridge, and it joins with a -EPO ...the subsequent cold loading will not be favored west. The trick is... the PNA and EPO have a robust negative correlation over the longer term mean. That means...when the PNA is positive, the EPO tends to be negative... However, often times the two domains will split, and the EPO will feature more of a blocking node as opposed to a full latitude Rossby wave wall with a full bird ridge. When this form happens, the cold may spill S in the load, and then the -PNA --> -PNAP construct then draws it into the circulation out west. I'd say of these two formulations,... "IF" a -EPO does develop, the former has a fair shot - in which case the cold loading may spread east more liberally. The other trick is whether the -EPO is real or not. It's a new signal... not a lot of weight in terms of continuity so ... taken fwiw. And these 'new' signals sometimes don't make the cut. To be honest, I'm more intrigued by the AO collapse ...that's been in out there fore a weightier duration/# of nightly turns. And, now the NAO ...if perhaps concomitant (but not always..) has been hedging that direction too... If the PNA does roll back positive in four or five days, and the NAO does in fact pop off some ridging in the western end of that domain space, than this relaxation thing may go down more as an interval between cold periods - which may be all that it was anyway. volatility either way. I'd go with warm ...ah ... ish, for a time, but not hopelessly so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: There goes my pack.... Lol intrigued by the 17th 18th system even more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: Back enders are usually over rated, and will break your heart. We rarely see anything beyond flurries from the back end, and I've never had more than 1-2" from them since moving from Fort Kent in 1985. 12z GFS lost the day 8 snowstorm it featured at 06, and made the weekend cutter both milder and wetter. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get out the mai Tai and banana hammocks around the 20th baby. It’s coming. Wasn’t it coming this upcoming weekend? The screamer cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: We rarely see anything beyond flurries from the back end, and I've never had more than 1-2" from them since moving from Fort Kent in 1985. i think christmas last year was a backender here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t it coming this upcoming weekend? The screamer cutter? The hype machine called Scooter caught you again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: We rarely see anything beyond flurries from the back end, and I've never had more than 1-2" from them since moving from Fort Kent in 1985. 12z GFS lost the day 8 snowstorm it featured at 06, and made the weekend cutter both milder and wetter. Yay! Once the winds back NW, See ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get out the mai Tai and banana hammocks around the 20th baby. It’s coming. I walk around the gym with those as I case the joint for big round bootied squatting milfs cold and dry as predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: i think christmas last year was a backender here? Nice 8" coastal up here, IIRC. Increased my 12/25 cumulative snowfall here by over 500%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t it coming this upcoming weekend? The screamer cutter? That was you hyping. Where will my 70mph winds be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Hopefully uncle Leo saw that massive EPO ridge dump of cold out west and heights pumped just offshore prior to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get out the mai Tai and banana hammocks around the 20th baby. It’s coming. For temps in the 40's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: For temps in the 40's? For what will be coming up soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was you hyping. Where will my 70mph winds be? All we heard is a 1-2 week torch with WAN temps right up to 12/25. It’s now a day or 2 maybe . Sure it’s a mild up but talk about an overhyped torch . This was embarrassing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Euro machine numbers for BDL, lines are average daily hi/lo black numbers are daily norms average, reds are predicted daily aves, like we said pretty meh on the torch parade which now appears to be pushed back to the 20th? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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