dWave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 30, first freeze. If we manage to get any acclumation in the city how unusual would it be to have a first freeze and first measurable snowfall basically at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How strong do you think this one will get? Close to -2? The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 36 now. Dew point at 30. That East wind is killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week. New run Old run Thanks for the update. I read your other post about the strong negative NAOs in November of previous years, and the following winters, was very eye opening. Do you think this reinforces the idea of a general averaged -NAO during the upcoming season ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 28 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 36 now. Dew point at 30. That East wind is killing me What’s your exact location? Wantagh meso which is right on the water is 32. low of 30 with a forecast of 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don any concerns that we'll see more coastal huggers this season since that seems to be a characteristic of this month? That would make it more like 2013-14 than 2002-03. Although December 2002 had such an event that turned snowy Christmas night. It's difficult to be sure about storm tracks. But the kind of blocking that could take hold during at least part of December would favor above to much above average snowfall for December. I would not be surprised to see 6" or more snow in December and possibly in excess of 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What’s your exact location? Wantagh meso which is right on the water is 32. low of 30 with a forecast of 25 Toms River, NJ. Already spitting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week. New run Old run Chris , This was it`s 3rd correction so far by the EPS in the last 15 days. The EPS is the king in the EP region , but it has been terrible under the ridge / block so far this November. Last week someone on here said , " the cold now looks like only 3 days long " , I thought that was wrong and was using the GEFS at 500 , it handled the Scan ridge better early on. The EPS will now bust 3 times in this pattern now and the reason is it did not understand the Scandinavian ridge and the effects underneath in the N/E . Now as it migrates to Greenland around 10 day it`s warm period between day 9 -14 look wrong. I posted this earlier away , Once again the EPS will bust here. So far I have seen the Euro not grasp the strength of the Scandinavian ridge with its result underneath east of the Mississippi. But to make matters worse you are now going to center the positive during this period over Greenland and it continues the 5 day torch theme. The GEFS has been better and will beat the Euro again Now once past day 12 , things will really begin to get interesting at the end of the month through Dec 10 with regards to this set up. Look out after from week 3 on for something major along the E/C. The upcoming period as these anomalies relax screams look out. I am curious as to when the last time the NAO/AO both achieved a -4 / -5 SB BN ? I want to say Boxing Day , but maybe UNC or DON could help out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 JMA week 3 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Toms River, NJ. Already spitting rain. Ohhhh, makes sense, I thought you were on eastern LI. Even a NE flow is onshore for you. Tuff place for early season snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 36 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Chris , This was it`s 3rd correction so far by the EPS in the last 15 days. The EPS is the king in the EP region , but it has been terrible under the ridge / block so far this November. Last week someone on here said , " the cold now looks like only 3 days long " , I thought that was wrong and was using the GEFS at 500 , it handled the Scan ridge better early on. The EPS will now bust 3 times in this pattern now and the reason is it did not understand the Scandinavian ridge and the effects underneath in the N/E . Now as it migrates to Greenland around 10 day it`s warm period between day 9 -14 look wrong. It's interesting how the Euro seasonal had the NATL blocking signal on the Nov 5th run. But the EPS has been playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ohhhh, makes sense, I thought you were on eastern LI. Even a NE flow is onshore for you. Tuff place for early season snow!!! Pretty much tough year round. Very hard to get an all snow event. Usually will turn to sleet at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, CarLover014 said: Pretty much tough year round. Very hard to get an all snow event. Usually will turn to sleet at some point. Yeah, your the one poster on here that most likely sees no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 48 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Pretty much tough year round. Very hard to get an all snow event. Usually will turn to sleet at some point. You live 5 miles off the ocean in Southern New Jersey. Even with a northeast wind the flow is off the ocean. You guys rely on strong blocking to make snow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It's difficult to be sure about storm tracks. But the kind of blocking that could take hold during at least part of December would favor above to much above average snowfall for December. I would not be surprised to see 6" or more snow in December and possibly in excess of 10". We are already seeing this storm overachieve here on the south shore! It looks like midwinter out there with really pretty heavy snow sticking to everything and my pond has been frozen here since this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ohhhh, makes sense, I thought you were on eastern LI. Even a NE flow is onshore for you. Tuff place for early season snow!!! wow 6 hours later and still all snow very heavy snow here on the south shore of western nassau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: You live 5 miles off the ocean in Southern New Jersey. Even with a northeast wind the flow is off the ocean. You guys rely on strong blocking to make snow possible. He would have loved Feb 1899 (Cape May 34 inches of snow- state record!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We are already seeing this storm overachieve here on the south shore! It looks like midwinter out there with really pretty heavy snow sticking to everything and my pond has been frozen here since this morning! Allentown is doing very well, so far. My sister was in Hawley and reported similar scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Allentown is doing very well, so far. My sister was in Hawley and reported similar scenes. Oh I spend my weekends just north of there in the mountains. I'm on the south shore of Nassau County during the week. This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning. In Carbon County in PA it had been snowing since last weekend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Weeklies are great through December The pattern that is showing up for late month into December is great for a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Next 8 days still averaging near 40degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.1[49.1]. Should be -2.5[45.9] by the 24th. There was a remarkable 6.4" of Snow yesterday. Currently 42 here at 6am---with a wet, non-WinterWonderland look to it. Temperature has crashed to 35.5 and wind has picked up here at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days still averaging near 40degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.1[49.1]. Should be -2.5[45.9] by the 24th. There was a remarkable 6.4" of Snow yesterday. Currently 42 here at 6am---with a wet, non-WinterWonderland look to it. Temperature has crashed to 35.5 and wind has picked up here at 7am. In addition to the record snow, yesterday was the first -15 daily temperature departure since January 7th. I am not sure if that is a record long stretch between -15 days in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Yesterdays 6.4 inches of snow in NYC becomes only the 5th November storm of 6 inches or more. It also becomes the 193rd storm of six inches or more since records (1869) have been kept. NYC 6 + inch snows by Month 5 2.6% November 37 19.2% December 48 24.9% January 65 33.7% February 31 16.1% March 7 3.6% April 193 100.0% Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 If we do the grand tour into 7 /8 / 1 with amplitude , the month of December should end up cold and snowy. As it is starting with the back few days of November into the 1st 10 days or so should feature a major E/C storm. Prob 2 legit shots before the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That wind last night was howling. Good Luck Point Marina had a gust of 57 mph and sustained 36 mph. Way windier than I thought. Had a few power flickers overnight, and had to chase my garbage can down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Great stat from Josh Timlin. Check out how 1st and 3rd place occurred during the 2010's extreme snowfall period. The last 1” or more of snow in Central Park fell on April 2. If an inch were to accumulate this Thursday, then 2018 would place 3rd for the least number of days between 1” snow events. Records go back to 1869 (149 years). pic.twitter.com/VrHRYLFWvU There you have it. The 3rd shortest break between the end of one snow season and the start of the next in NYC. This includes 149 years of data back to 1869!pic.twitter.com/3YeuVTPi5F 5:15 AM - 16 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 ^^In a way this was a bit stranger than 2011. That was after the atmosphere had experienced a significantly turbulent event (Irene) and wavelengths were messed with bringing a higher chance for an anomalous cold air intrusion. This was just sort of "in the course of things". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Alot of sleepless nights if the models are right with the pattern at the end of this month into next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Alot of sleepless nights if the models are right with the pattern at the end of this month into next month. How so? At work and no time to dive into model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, cut said: How so? At work and no time to dive into model. Models have been hinting at the possibility of another big storm towards the end of next week with some blocking possible and another juiced southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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