Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Ian? Someone who makes 3 post a year now? Might as well have stormtrackerRandy start them. Ian only wakes up for the big stuff. He's on my list of approved thread starters. The last snowstorm thread I started was in the Central PA sub forum for the Oct 2011 event. I'm cursed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 hours ago, yoda said: Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102" They provide the detail and nitty gritty But it is all in the delivery. And you have that nailed. You are the Howard Cossell of the weatherboards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Advertised 500 mb pattern evolving nicely on recent EPS runs. Hopefully this look verifies and sticks around for much of December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looking at the 500's I really am starting to like our chances for maybe seeing an opportunity or two roughly day 10-16. Models really aren't picking up on it at this time but I sort of expect in the next couple of days they will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 500's I really am starting to like our chances for maybe seeing an opportunity or two roughly day 10-16. Models really aren't picking up on it at this time but I sort of expect in the next couple of days they will. I agree. It is now officially a "period of interest". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Advertised 500 mb pattern evolving nicely on recent EPS runs. Hopefully this look verifies and sticks around for much of December. Looks like Dr Aleo's inhouse Pinoneer model for winter , just saying ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wow HM has a ton of info out this AM. Too much to post or even talk about , but I think it means watch out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, frd said: Wow HM has a ton of info out this AM. Too much to post or even talk about , but I think it means watch out . Might get fun towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A favorable displacment for us is looking more and more likely. Still waiting on the updated ensemble forecasts on the CPC for the NAO and AO, but yesterday the dive was on. You can feel it in the air , it's coming ........ * * * * * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 For those that follow the 12Z NAM the 12K is coming in snowier (scratch that snow looks roughly the same) for the initial round of precip. We are also seeing a quicker onset of precip as it is on the doorstep of DC at 8am. Still waiting for the later frames to see if we see anything on the upper low passage. 500 mb has seen an improvement as well. ETA: Opps, wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I would think if the block continues to retrograde ( Not sure ) say to the Davis Straits area then the window for a threat would be early December. So despite Judah's comment above, even though I wish it were Feb, that look can deliver in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 33 minutes ago, frd said: I would think if the block continues to retrograde ( Not sure ) say to the Davis Straits area then the window for a threat would be early December. So despite Judah's comment above, even though I wish it were Feb, that look can deliver in early December. Yea, I'm totally good with that look and it can work in early Dec for sure. Can't have a retreating high and rotting antedecent airmass in early Dec. At least not in my yard. Block in a cold feed and track south and we'll all do just fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Wow HM has a ton of info out this AM. Too much to post or even talk about , but I think it means watch out . If you scroll down in that thread on twitter HM goes on to explain that the forcing that is basically beating the crap out of the PV right now, is initiating from the bottom up not the top down...IOW no SSWE. That to me is the best news here because those tropospheric forces are likely to be more stable and this could be an indicator that we are likely to have repetitive blocking periods this winter. Not unexpected but the signs are showing up right on time. Everything continues to progress exactly how we want. I am almost ready to pull the trigger and jump all in for this winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you scroll down in that thread on twitter HM goes on to explain that the forcing that is basically beating the crap out of the PV right now, is initiating from the bottom up not the top down...IOW no SSWE. That to me is the best news here because those tropospheric forces are likely to be more stable and this could be an indicator that we are likely to have repetitive blocking periods this winter. Not unexpected but the signs are showing up right on time. Everything continues to progress exactly how we want. I am almost ready to pull the trigger and jump all in for this winter! That I didn't know. Maybe that will calm down the nay-sayers that don't feel we can have blocking unless we have a SSW. Nah, who am I kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you scroll down in that thread on twitter HM goes on to explain that the forcing that is basically beating the crap out of the PV right now, is initiating from the bottom up not the top down...IOW no SSWE. That to me is the best news here because those tropospheric forces are likely to be more stable and this could be an indicator that we are likely to have repetitive blocking periods this winter. Not unexpected but the signs are showing up right on time. Everything continues to progress exactly how we want. I am almost ready to pull the trigger and jump all in for this winter! Thanks, and when HM gets excited it is time to board the bus soon. Glad to hear you are optimistic too psu. All the pieces are coming together. I almost want to say it but normally bad luck, as JB has stated in the past and it has not worked out well....... Ah whatever.....a December to Remember coming !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 yea man... this works going into december... West based -NAO + side order of -AO/-EPO + STJ = nudity 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong. Something is wrong for sure 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 21 hours ago, BristowWx said: And you..our favorite play by play guy. Seriously you are the best at calling the frames I don’t know about that. But I’m in Colombia (South America, not Maryland or South Carolina. It’s spelled differently, but people still get it confused). Anyway, it’s 91 and disgustingly humid attm. I’m here until sunday, so I’m not vested at all in this. Good luck to y’all tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong. No crazy -NAO on the Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: No crazy -NAO on the Canadian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The +PNA looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Ha that Canadian map is basically a weenies dream. Textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Now I have a question...Is there anyway to tell from this point (or perhaps in a week or two) if something like this will be sustained feature (aside from relaxations in between, of course) this winter? (Like can we tell what sir NAO and AO have in mind for the winter? Lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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