Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

[hickory]

The recorded time on this earth that we have is small. The level of Katrina is considered great in current thinking. if you wanna see a serious event go here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Molokai_Volcano

 

[PressureDrop2017]

3 hours ago, hickory said:

In the bible of our lord. It rained 40 days and 40 nights. Maybe what SE NC got like 2-3 days. It's a flood but nothing like our lord did. Low end event.

There wasn't a global flood within the timeframe of Christianity (or Mesopotamian civilization for that matter). The 'Noah' myth can be traced back to Sumerian mythology, and the most likely origin of that was: the simple observation of geological strata ... ancient people could find seashells in eroded inland locations, and infer correctly that those regions must once have been underwater. Natural fact in search of an explanation, in pre-scientific times... and the 'flood' as a traditional teaching eventually made it into writing in Mesopotamian clay tablets  

[BombsAway1288]

5 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

it's disappointing to see people looting during this disaster

 

Shocking 

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

it's disappointing to see people looting during this disaster

 

It happens all the time  during hurricanes , snowstorms , blackouts, etc.

[oldnorthstate]

9 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah. Stealing all those luxury items from family dollar. 

seriously...black people in wilmington have been dealing with white folks looting for centuries.  hell, the white folks even overthrew the government when they didn't like how it was going.       that doesn't even mention how the government's last tax bill was essentially even more looting of the coffers of the poor.    instead of saying gosh, what a shame, we might want to see why these people who are poor beyond your belief might think looting some diapers out of a family dollar is the thing to do.

 

 

[oldnorthstate]

4 hours ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

There wasn't a global flood within the timeframe of Christianity (or Mesopotamian civilization for that matter). The 'Noah' myth can be traced back to Sumerian mythology, and the most likely origin of that was: the simple observation of geological strata ... ancient people could find seashells in eroded inland locations, and infer correctly that those regions must once have been underwater. Natural fact in search of an explanation, in pre-scientific times... and the 'flood' as a traditional teaching eventually made it into writing in Mesopotamian clay tablets  

but Jesus. 

[All Wet]

Reading some of the comments of this thread makes me wonder if inventing the Internet was such a good idea after all...

[rescuedpup68]

8 hours ago, hickory said:

In the bible of our lord. It rained 40 days and 40 nights. Maybe what SE NC got like 2-3 days. It's a flood but nothing like our lord did. Low end event.

I am hoping I am not the only one here that finds this post to be uncomfortably strange, ill placed, and almost offensive. 

Back to the storm at hand...

After living through Harvey, Ike, (truly any storm in the last 40 years that has effected the Gulf Coast/ Houston ) recovery from Flo is going to be a long journey. My heart goes out to all of those in her path.

[Whineminster]

I would loot family Dollar too who cares. Pick up some new tees and jeans. Looting something like a small mom and pop antique shop where they spent half their lives collecting rare items would be bad. 

[RevWarReenactor]

9 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

My God 40 inches of rain...mehhh. For some reason only wind= strong cane to so many.

I guess I just don't understand why people can't bring themselves to admit where there was screw ups.

Its a fact that this didn't hit the strength that it was forecasted to hit. Thats all. And thats huge. It is something we should have learned from last year with Irma.

In most professions, when there are screwups, people get fired. The least that could be offered is , here is what went wrong, here is how we plan to learn from that in the future.

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I guess I just don't understand why people can't bring themselves to admit where there was screw ups.

Its a fact that this didn't hit the strength that it was forecasted to hit. Thats all. And thats huge. It is something we should have learned from last year with Irma.

In most professions, when there are screwups, people get fired. The least that could be offered is , here is what went wrong, here is how we plan to learn from that in the future.

What if it hit as cat 3 or 4 but the surge and rainfall wasn't as bad as predicted? You're focusing too much on the wind and ignoring the fact that the rain and flooding is going to be devastating as predicted. There was nothing to indicate it would weaken as much as it did from a wind perspective.

There's less than a 20 mph difference between a cat 1 and cat 3

[Stormlover74]

Lol

[rclab]

5 hours ago, rescuedpup68 said:

I am hoping I am not the only one here that finds this post to be uncomfortably strange, ill placed, and almost offensive. 

Back to the storm at hand...

After living through Harvey, Ike, (truly any storm in the last 40 years that has effected the Gulf Coast/ Houston ) recovery from Flo is going to be a long journey. My heart goes out to all of those in her path.

The response by Hazwoper, 14 hours ago, shows your not alone. He gave us two choices, to perhaps vote on, regarding Hickory’s post. I, however, see it as a strained attempt at sarcasm that does manage to make some uncomfortable, offend others and definitely communicate “ strange”. So is it trolling or stupid, probably both, sadly well done Hickory. As always....

[weaponxreject]

I guess I just don't understand why people can't bring themselves to admit where there was screw ups.
Its a fact that this didn't hit the strength that it was forecasted to hit. Thats all. And thats huge. It is something we should have learned from last year with Irma.
In most professions, when there are screwups, people get fired. The least that could be offered is , here is what went wrong, here is how we plan to learn from that in the future.

I wanna ask you this, with no disrespect intended...

What would you have done, if you were at the NHC or any of our NWS offices (RAH, ILM, etc) if coming into Wed/Thurs last week all/majority guidance indicated the intensity projected? iirc nothing was showing the potential for southerly wind shear, series of EWRC, and the dry air. How would you have worded AFDs, and how would you have communicated that guidance to the media and the public?

I genuinely want to know, not to prove a point or attack you for your posts. I hope to, within the next 5-10 years, be working at the NHC or in the private sector wrt tropical systems. Communication of threats and dangers related to these storms is crucial to ensuring preparation and protection of life and property. Intensity forecasting confidence definitely lags behind track forecast confidence, and after reading discussions by those like DT and Cranky and Allan, it's been interesting to the the debates between those who focus on models and those who focus on synoptic/observational for forecasting.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[hickory]

 Did the best I could. Took 45 minutes to make it less than 1.95mb. Approaching 5 inches here NE of Greensboro

 

[MattPetrulli]

Category 1 or 3 at landfall, we got a death toll of 16 which is probably gonna rise and multiple FFEs ongoing. What the strength it came in at doesn't matter much currently. NHC did great and couldn't have handled it any better. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, DPeterson said:

Reading some of the comments of this thread makes me wonder if inventing the Internet was such a good idea after all...

I couldn’t agree more. This thread made me cringe then puke in my mouth. 

Anyone we thinks this storm did not live up to the hype has no understand of meteorology and really should read more and post less. Almost doubling a states previous record for rainfall in a single tropical cyclone. Easily a 1000 year event. 

[BlunderStorm]

This thread just seems to get worse every time I visit it. Why did we have to pull religion into this? WHY!? I'm sure politics is next...

[the ghost of leroy]

its definitely a HOF worthy thread

[weaponxreject]

I couldn’t agree more. This thread made me cringe then puke in my mouth. 
Anyone we thinks this storm did not live up to the hype has no understand of meteorology and really should read more and post less. Almost doubling a states previous record for rainfall in a single tropical cyclone. Easily a 1000 year event. 

Check out @NWSWilmingtonNC’s Tweet:

This one tweet says it all...

I've read a lot/posted little with a rudimentary understanding of the general mechanics of tropical systems and for the last week have been pushing my friends/family in the area to pay attention to the surge and flooding potential.

I don't understand the vitriol. I really don't. Why are people being so damn negative? For real, I wish someone would explain their position rationally.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[hickory]

Ok so they broke the record in 1877. I would say more than likely this is easily a 300 year event. So there is a .33% chance of this hapenning every year for the next 300 years. Me winning the lottery or a mega tusnami wiping out the eastern seaboard in the next 300 years is like .00001%. Am sorry, but it's all about numbers bro. A minor event in the large scale of time.

[the ghost of leroy]

4 minutes ago, hickory said:

Ok so they broke the record in 1877. I would say more than likely this is easily a 300 year event. So there is a .33% chance of this hapenning every year for the next 300 years. Me winning the lottery or a mega tusnami wiping out the eastern seaboard in the next 300 years is like .00001%. Am sorry, but it's all about numbers bro. A minor event in the large scale of time.

bro you should go into finance with that sort of math wizardry in your brain

[MattPetrulli]

37 minutes ago, hickory said:

Ok so they broke the record in 1877. I would say more than likely this is easily a 300 year event. So there is a .33% chance of this hapenning every year for the next 300 years. Me winning the lottery or a mega tusnami wiping out the eastern seaboard in the next 300 years is like .00001%. Am sorry, but it's all about numbers bro. A minor event in the large scale of time.

i gotta say, this is a top notch troll

[weaponxreject]

Ok so they broke the record in 1877. I would say more than likely this is easily a 300 year event. So there is a .33% chance of this hapenning every year for the next 300 years. Me winning the lottery or a mega tusnami wiping out the eastern seaboard in the next 300 years is like .00001%. Am sorry, but it's all about numbers bro. A minor event in the large scale of time.

I completely understand that, on a timeline that large, small impact. Cool.

How does that factor into the average life span for the country/region? People who have migrated into the state from regions that don't have storms like this regularly, if ever? Isn't it a bit too objective to look at this situation from that much of a macro? The numbers and data meteorologists and weenies focus on are all fine and good, that's more or less why I'm as interested as I am. I constantly struggle with remembering that that data often has very real life-changing and life-threatening impacts downstream.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, weaponxreject said:

I wanna ask you this, with no disrespect intended...

What would you have done, if you were at the NHC or any of our NWS offices (RAH, ILM, etc) if coming into Wed/Thurs last week all/majority guidance indicated the intensity projected? iirc nothing was showing the potential for southerly wind shear, series of EWRC, and the dry air. How would you have worded AFDs, and how would you have communicated that guidance to the media and the public?

I genuinely want to know, not to prove a point or attack you for your posts. I hope to, within the next 5-10 years, be working at the NHC or in the private sector wrt tropical systems. Communication of threats and dangers related to these storms is crucial to ensuring preparation and protection of life and property. Intensity forecasting confidence definitely lags behind track forecast confidence, and after reading discussions by those like DT and Cranky and Allan, it's been interesting to the the debates between those who focus on models and those who focus on synoptic/observational for forecasting.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

I would have toned it down.

Yes, preparation is great, but leading the governor in NC to say its the storm of a lifetime is a problem. Why? because people who weren't that effected will stay next time.

I think the NHC should know by now that model intensities are terrible. Need to tread lightly. The stall and crawl and just climo in general argued heavily against a CAT 4 or even a CAT 3 coming in.  I'd even say a CAT 2 was a stretch. But people on here even started whispers of a CAT 5. THE NHC put out that people should expect winds of up to 120MPH. They forecasted a CAT 4 moving in at one point. That was overkill IMO.

Again, there needs to be a balance. People need to take it seriously, but they get too carried away with the hype and ignore climo.

[weaponxreject]

I would have toned it down.
Yes, preparation is great, but leading the governor in NC to say its the storm of a lifetime is a problem. Why? because people who weren't that effected will stay next time.
I think the NHC should know by now that model intensities are terrible. Need to tread lightly. The stall and crawl and just climo in general argued heavily against a CAT 4 or even a CAT 3 coming in.  I'd even say a CAT 2 was a stretch. But people on here even started whispers of a CAT 5. THE NHC put out that people should expect winds of up to 120MPH. They forecasted a CAT 4 moving in at one point. That was overkill IMO.
Again, there needs to be a balance. People need to take it seriously, but they get too carried away with the hype and ignore climo.

Per the "up to 120mph", definitely didn't happen sustained wise, and gusts were mostly in the ~100mph range, so the guidance wasn't off much for those on the coast imho. Agreed, the Cat5 talk needed to be toned down. Especially when, per the SS scale and keeping in mind the general public's knowledge, there isn't really a huge difference between a 4 and 5 wind wise, and one could potentially argue that after a TC reaches a 3 the Cat is irrelevant.

I understand keeping a balance. Idk, maybe I didn't hear/see any of the fear-mongering you're referring to because I was mentally balls deep in the meteorological side versus public side.

Per the climo though... I've seen it referenced over and over by experienced Mets and by weenies on forums like these that this wasn't a storm one could really compare to climo because of the stack of statistical anomalies involved. Were they all wrong? Were they all focusing too much on those outliers versus the larger synoptic picture, so to speak? I want all input and perspectives because it could very well be me one day writing a FD for dissemination by the NHC... Conversations like these matter, but the hyperbole from both sides damages the goal, I feel, of properly conveying threat to life and property.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, weaponxreject said:

 

 

Per the "up to 120mph", definitely didn't happen sustained wise, and gusts were mostly in the ~100mph range, so the guidance wasn't off much for those on the coast imho. Agreed, the Cat5 talk needed to be toned down. Especially when, per the SS scale and keeping in mind the general public's knowledge, there isn't really a huge difference between a 4 and 5 wind wise, and one could potentially argue that after a TC reaches a 3 the Cat is irrelevant.

I understand keeping a balance. Idk, maybe I didn't hear/see any of the fear-mongering you're referring to because I was mentally balls deep in the meteorological side versus public side.

Per the climo though... I've seen it referenced over and over by experienced Mets and by weenies on forums like these that this wasn't a storm one could really compare to climo because of the stack of statistical anomalies involved. Were they all wrong? Were they all focusing too much on those outliers versus the larger synoptic picture, so to speak? I want all input and perspectives because it could very well be me one day writing a FD for dissemination by the NHC... Conversations like these matter, but the hyperbole from both sides damages the goal, I feel, of properly conveying threat to life and property.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Climo wasn't a help with this storm.

Underforecast and underanalyzed shear in a shallow region under the outflow layer on the SW side of the storm about 2 days out from landfall helped disrupt the inner core just enough to bring it down a notch.

A cat 3/4 landfall was the best call at the time, given the data available. I'm not sure the surge or flooding problems would've been any less even without the weakening period though.

[rescuedpup68]

Well, this is gross!

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-flood-hog-manure-pits-coal-ash-dumps-north-carolina/

[the ghost of leroy]

22 minutes ago, rescuedpup68 said:

Well, this is gross!

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-flood-hog-manure-pits-coal-ash-dumps-north-carolina/

You get the environment that you vote for. This will happen as long as they keep electing people who think god put us here to pile hog **** in open lagoons and blow apart mountaintops. 

[hickory]

Ok the story behind this pic is. I saw my 1992 cub scout trophy floating away. I jumped into the river and saved it. You can call me a hero if you want too. #hero 

(The shirt is ripped because of the raging flood waters)