Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

[JakkelWx]

Since storm mode thread was posted, i'm gonna just lurk. I've had some problems with posting too much yesterday. 

I acknowledge that storm mode is a very serious thread and involves tracking a dangerous/deadly hurricane which has to potential to cause significant loss of life and destruction of property. Therefore i'm gonna take it seriously.

I think it's better to just lurk when you're very new and have less than 500 posts and learn from other posters. 

[BlunderStorm]

Just last month, I vacationed with family at North Topsail Island a little further down the island in the condos. When I walked up the island to find the sandbags I remembered thinking to myself (any year now...) I find it shocking that North Topsail at one point had dunes 100ft high as now the land sits barely above sea level! The entire community seems like a testament to humanity's arrogance. With Florence now looming it has got me thinking. If the North Topsail is inevitably going to be inundated with storm surge and Florence's landfall on the east coast is inevitable as well... Perhaps it should make landfall directly at North Topsail. When it comes to a major hurricane, deaths are likely inevitable but those who meet their fate on the coast will have nobody to blame but themselves. With Florence we have had days of forewarning leaving ample time for evacuation.  Perhaps then, if the community is destroyed the landowners will rebuild more responsibly or better yet not at all! Am I crazy for thinking this way or am I not alone?

[Keelala]

2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Perhaps then, if the community is destroyed the landowners will rebuild more responsibly or better yet not at all! Am I crazy for thinking this way or am I not alone?

Right there with you. We should also definitely stop rebuilding cities below sea level. I'm looking at you, New Orleans.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Jakkel138 said:

There's a storm mode thread now. Some wonder if stormtracker looks like his profile picture in real life...

I do. I am a 200+ year old white, deaf, cranky mofo.  Watch it!

[drexelkathy]

14 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Just last month, I vacationed with family at North Topsail Island a little further down the island in the condos. When I walked up the island to find the sandbags I remembered thinking to myself (any year now...) I find it shocking that North Topsail at one point had dunes 100ft high as now the land sits barely above sea level! The entire community seems like a testament to humanity's arrogance. With Florence now looming it has got me thinking. If the North Topsail is inevitably going to be inundated with storm surge and Florence's landfall on the east coast is inevitable as well... Perhaps it should make landfall directly at North Topsail. When it comes to a major hurricane, deaths are likely inevitable but those who meet their fate on the coast will have nobody to blame but themselves. With Florence we have had days of forewarning leaving ample time for evacuation.  Perhaps then, if the community is destroyed the landowners will rebuild more responsibly or better yet not at all! Am I crazy for thinking this way or am I not alone?

It is a lot easier to make suppositions about what you would do then to make those decisions in real life.

personally?  I’m all about packing up and leaving at the mere sign of a landfall near me/us.  Property and things aren’t important to me.  

But it’s a hard sell to people that may have worked their entire lives for that little “slice” of their American dream. 

Anyone criticizing people that make tough choices has likely never faced it themselves.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I do. I am a 200+ year old white, deaf, cranky mofo.  Watch it!

248 to be exact.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

248 to be exact.

You mean he's your age?  

[jburns]

Just now, Hoosier said:

You mean he's your age?  

Give or take a year or two, yes.

[BlunderStorm]

19 minutes ago, drexelkathy said:

It is a lot easier to make suppositions about what you would do then to make those decisions in real life.

personally?  I’m all about packing up and leaving at the mere sign of a landfall near me/us.  Property and things aren’t important to me.  

But it’s a hard sell to people that may have worked their entire lives for that little “slice” of their American dream. 

Anyone criticizing people that make tough choices has likely never faced it themselves.

I understand but it is just so hard for me to feel sympathy for those who chose to own land there. The people who my heart really goes out to is the children who have no decision in where they live or if they even evacuate and the first responders who put their lives on the line to help others in these terrible natural disasters. When people choose to own property there I hope they go in with the expectation their beach homes destruction is but only a matter of time and evacuate when that time comes. There is no worse tragedy than the loss of a life.

[drexelkathy]

5 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I understand but it is just so hard for me to feel sympathy for those who chose to own land there. The people who my heart really goes out to is the children who have no decision in where they live or if they even evacuate and the first responders who put their lives on the line to help others in these terrible natural disasters. When people choose to own property there I hope they go in with the expectation their beach homes destruction is but only a matter of time and evacuate when that time comes.

I’m sorry you find it hard to have sympathy for people facing natural disasters.

[WeatherNC]

6 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

give me 110kt at landfall

id gamble and ride it out if I was on the coast as well.

All depends on where you are at with respect to the right front, I studied that area north off ILM through Lookout, Topsail in particular, one of the most active sandbars on the east coast, I would be inland.

[BlunderStorm]

11 minutes ago, drexelkathy said:

I’m sorry you find it hard to have sympathy for people facing natural disasters.

It's not so much a lack of sympathy for their immediate situation but rather their loss of property when they knew the risks. I questioned how and why I felt this way myself and knew some would agree and others disagree. North Topsail is an exceptional example of this sentiment I have expressed. Most beach front property is certainly much safer than there. What gets to me is when these weather weenies wishcast for hurricanes to hit major metropolitan areas without any thought as to what the consequences of that would be if it were to actually occur. Looking at the NHC cone and the spaghetti models I would have never even entertained the thought of it hitting there if it were not for it appearing nearly inevitable. 

[yoda]

Yes... let's talk about the 00z NAM in the storm mode Florence thread

[Tibet]

Can anyone explain the reduction in banding that seems to be occurring on IR?

[mempho]

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[BlunderStorm]

3 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Can anyone explain the reduction in banding that seems to be occurring on IR?

I'm not really qualified to answer this but if I had to guess it's probably the result of an eye wall replacement. Florence could very possibly transform into an annular hurricane. (EDIT) Got me there mempho! 

[mempho]

Can anyone explain the reduction in banding that seems to be occurring on IR?

EWRC, bud. However, if this thing completes the cycle in time to take advantage of the warm SSTs and low shear, she could become annular.

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[Tibet]

And can anyone describe what is occurring just south of the eye?

[mempho]

I'm not really qualified to answer this but if I had to guess it's probably the result of an eye wall replacement. Florence could very possibly transform into an annular hurricane. (EDIT) Got me there mempho! 

Perfect timing!

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[ChineseFood4Snow]

1 minute ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




And if you prefer to get drunk faster, drink every time someone uses the word "trend."
 

 

[Random Chaos]

Since the other thread has a ton of NAM watchers right now... just to prove that NAM is not the worst model out there for hurricanes.... there is always CRAS. And wow is it bad! It already has the storm falling apart into an open wave in something like 24 hours, and the track is equally bad

 

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming of waiting for the next useful hurricane model

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

[Dunkman]

1 hour ago, Jakkel138 said:

Since storm mode thread was posted, i'm gonna just lurk. I've had some problems with posting too much yesterday. 

 I acknowledge that storm mode is a very serious thread and involves tracking a dangerous/deadly hurricane which has to potential to cause significant loss of life and destruction of property. Therefore i'm gonna take it seriously.

I think it's better to just lurk when you're very new and have less than 500 posts and learn from other posters. 

I've been here since the site launched and tracking hurricanes for 30 years and I mostly just lurk the main thread at this point. Sometimes I'll post some images I think would add to the discussion but when there are a dozen or more actual meteorologists in the thread my analysis is pretty worthless.

[fourseasons]

17 minutes ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Perhaps an enterprising soul around here could create a special cocktail for this purpose.

[Dunkman]

18 minutes ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

DO NOT do this in the comments section of Dr. Masters blog. You will die.

[BlunderStorm]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

Well, I mean what's wrong with mentioning annular hurricanes? This is a weather forum. People here like weather that is cool. Hurricanes look cool. ANNULAR hurricanes look even cooler. xD 

[mempho]

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

I think it took me 5 minutes of "catch-up" reading just from this evening to get to at least 5!

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[hickory]

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

[BlunderStorm]

15 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this and even then I would be far from certain.

[AU74]

3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this.

It was moved here from the Storm Mode thread, lol.