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wxeyeNH

NNE Fall Thread

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13 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Yeah, was hoping for a northward trend.

 

 


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

 

Got an unexpected consolation prize about 4:30 yesterday afternoon, 0.29" in a localized but apparently short-but-heavy shower - no one at home when it rained.  That shower also kicked the TD to near 70; getting kinda late in the season for that stuff (though last year we had similar dews a week later.)

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Pretty meh here...just  .68"  Enough to soak in the fall fert app and keep grass happy. 

Contrary to what some opine on here, most people I know are ready for the dews to break.  Looking forward to some normal late Sept temps, going to feel great. It will actually feel like fall this weekend for some of the local festival stuff.

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Nice warm low of 40F up here on the hill.  It will probably be a couple more weeks up here before I get a killing frost.  Seems like the lowlands have to score mid 20's and then I'll eek out a 32F.

Definate change in the leaves begining.   

Alex, what was your low?  Im getting an error message when I check into your station.

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9 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Nice warm low of 40F up here on the hill.  It will probably be a couple more weeks up here before I get a killing frost.  Seems like the lowlands have to score mid 20's and then I'll eek out a 32F.

Definate change in the leaves begining.   

Alex, what was your low?  Im getting an error message when I check into your station.

27.9F. Not much lower than the previous freeze which was 28 and change. Not sure what’s going on with wunderground, it gives on and off error messages. Seems to be working now!

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16 hours ago, alex said:

27.9F. Not much lower than the previous freeze which was 28 and change. Not sure what’s going on with wunderground, it gives on and off error messages. Seems to be working now!

TWC is what's wrong with wunderground.  From quick and easy access it's become exceedingly frustrating to use.

Clouds/breeze spiked the decouple here last night (low near 40), except for the NW half of the state - well down the 20s in places, perhaps u-teens at Estcourt Station?

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29 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You're not living up here anymore?

I had to move back to NC in June for my fiancee.  I am not thrilled about having to have left but I am happy to have her. I will miss snow.

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21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I had to move back to NC in June for my fiancee.  I am not thrilled about having to have left but I am happy to have her. I will miss snow.

Record snow year incoming!  Good luck.  NC has some great areas. I love the mountains and the OBX, in between, meh.   My paternal grandmother was from Cherokee and my Grandfather was from Durham.  

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3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Record snow year incoming!  Good luck.  NC has some great areas. I love the mountains and the OBX, in between, meh.   My paternal grandmother was from Cherokee and my Grandfather was from Durham.  

Yeah you guys will get hammered but hey I did get a 30 inch storm before leaving :) I plan on making a Feb ski trip as well.

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Jeremy,   I was thinking of you the past week as we now turn the seasons and wondered where you had gone.  Good luck down there in NC.  Thanks for your drone advice over the past couple of years and for your great pictures.  Hopefully  there will be a couple of good southern snowstorms for you!

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On 9/26/2018 at 4:35 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Jeremy,   I was thinking of you the past week as we now turn the seasons and wondered where you had gone.  Good luck down there in NC.  Thanks for your drone advice over the past couple of years and for your great pictures.  Hopefully  there will be a couple of good southern snowstorms for you!

I hope so. On a side note I went over to the ADK's yesterday and the color is quite a bit further along there. There were some pockets in the high peaks region outside of Lake Placid at Moderate to High Color just below the evergreens. 

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The best color was farther up the road from where I shot this but I couldn't pass up the lighting due to the cloud movements. This is straight from the camera without edits:

 

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September rainfall for our location came in at 2.90”, which is ~0.80” below average, but well within ± 1 S.D.  So, it was a little on the dry side but much closer to average than the midsummer months were this year.

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Straight out of the camera drone clip from North Elba in the ADK's on 10.1.2018 as I detoured on my back to NC:

 

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On 9/26/2018 at 2:38 PM, eyewall said:

I had to move back to NC in June for my fiancee.  I am not thrilled about having to have left but I am happy to have her. I will miss snow.

I'm fully expecting an epic winter now, Check in often!

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We headed over the App Gap today and the foliage was fantastic, although there are already some spots that are past peak.  Contrast that to when we dropped down into Addison County in the Champlain Valley – there was so much green that it felt as if we were back to summer.  There are definitely some pockets of great color down in the valley as well, but it’s most definitely still pre-peak.

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Well, the calendar has been saying it’s time, multiple runs of various models have been suggesting it, and now the BTV NWS forecast discussion is starting to mention it:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 401 AM EDT Tuesday...Over the weekend the big "highlight" is that we`ll be cooler on Friday into Saturday. The cooler temps should be cold enough that higher elevation locations should see a dusting of snow as an upper level trough brings a chance of showers/flurries depending on elevation both Saturday and Sunday.

Actually, modeling suggests multiple chance for snow in the next couple of weeks, at least as it stands now.  Checking on last October, my records show three rounds of snow, one on the 16th, a second on the 27th, and then one more on the 31st.  We're definitely coming up fast now on that part of the season.

Snow.jpg

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LOL, well, as the forecast suggests that we teeter on the verge of the holy season, you know this discussion has to be passed along.

Here’s to a season full of many, many snowy PF pics!

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1035 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 347 PM EDT Thursday...Days 4 thru 7 will feature a mid/upper level trof across the ne conus with a series of fronts in the progressive northwest flow aloft. These front will contain limited moisture as the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business, but periods of below normal temps are likely. Have continued to mention high chc pops on Monday/Monday Night as GFS/ECMWF are advertising short wave energy/mid level moisture and sfc cold front crossing our fa. Still some timing differences, but expect a 2 to 4 hour window of mainly rain showers, before ending as a period of mtn snow showers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning. Once again, still some uncertainty on timing of low level caa and amount of leftover moisture to produce a light accumulating snowfall in the mountains. A light dusting is possible near summits and I look forward to pics from the picnic tables on Mt Mansfield from PF.

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Ha that's awesome!  They love throwing that in there.  

Time for snow now.  Foliage is completely done.  Just gone after the heavy rain.  In 24 hours the foliage has disappeared. 

 

IMG_0852.JPG.a2e587ee92cd5eeefe9412166f5aa24b.JPG

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pics of snow?

Very dense fog and light precip rates of -SN, grains, pellets....no way to capture it.  

Will wait for something on the ground to see it but ground too warm obviously at 34-35F up there.  Maybe tomorrow morning.

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Received some snowflakes up here in Waterville. Cold front sneaking up, GFS and Canadian Indicating cold winter.  My own barometric pressure system pointing us towards an ICER of a winter.

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Per PF’s comment about some elevation snow in the area, I popped out for a walk in our neighborhood to check out the views.  The cloud ceiling in the 2,000’ peaks to our south is in 2,000’ to 2,500’ range, and I didn’t see anything there, and Camel’s Hump is well socked in with a ceiling around 2,000’, so no accumulations to report below that point.  A shower came through while I was out, which I’m sure is flakes up high based on the temperatures.  There’s some potential clearing later today, so hopefully some views will open up.

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