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wxeyeNH

NNE Fall Thread

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Time to start a NNE Fall Thread.  

1pm Sept 8, 2018.   First really  cool day up here.   58/43F with high overcast makes it feel very cool with the low dews and filtered sunshine.  Closed windows to retain house heat.  Determined not to fire up the wood burning stove tonight.   

Frost advisories flying for NNE.  Here we go into the next season.

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The edge of the cloud shield has been over my head all afternoon. Off to my south and east it has been somewhat overcast, north and west, crystal clear blue skys. On the edge of the real rad cooling. I’m predicting 45 for a low at my house. 

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11 hours ago, mreaves said:

The edge of the cloud shield has been over my head all afternoon. Off to my south and east it has been somewhat overcast, north and west, crystal clear blue skys. On the edge of the real rad cooling. I’m predicting 45 for a low at my house. 

Whoops, cloud shield retreated and we got down to 38

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8 hours ago, alex said:

Down to 32.9 already. Grr

Sorry Alex.   I see you scored a 29.8F.   I was almost going to respond to your post last night that I didn't think you would get a killing frost/freeze.  The high cirrus have been pesky and I thought that might save you.  So what was your growing season?  Third week of June to Sept 8th?   Cold in my house this AM but not going to start the stove or heat.  Nice warm low of 43F for me.

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4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Sorry Alex.   I see you scored a 29.8F.   I was almost going to respond to your post last night that I didn't think you would get a killing frost/freeze.  The high cirrus have been pesky and I thought that might save you.  So what was your growing season?  Third week of June to Sept 8th?   Cold in my house this AM but not going to start the stove or heat.  Nice warm low of 43F for me.

Last freezing temp was 32 on June 22, followed by 36 on July 19 (probably light frost then? Seems so long ago, can't remember and  can't believe it got that cold in mid July lol)

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Nice to see a more synoptic system coming in finally that isn't pure convection.  Been a while since we've had just a nice stratiform rain. 

Some models like the GFS only have .5-1.0" up here and keep the heaviest rain south, while others like the NAM/GGEM have us with 2"+. 

Also finally some stronger wind dynamics with the SE low level jet adding some orographic maxes and mins.

By daybreak Monday, developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley
will shift northeast into the eastern Great Lakes and eventually
up the St. Lawrence Valley Monday night. Widespread stratiform
rain will develop from southwest to northeast from mid-morning
to early afternoon with PWATs surging to 1.5-2". A moderate
rainfall is expected through Monday night, with amounts
generally ranging from 1-1.25". Higher amounts remain possible
along orographically upslope favored areas in Adirondacks and
central/southern Greens, where isentropic lift will be enhanced
by a strong 35-50kt 925mb southeasterly jet. On the flip-side,
we`ll likely see a bit of orographic shadowing in the favored
downslope regions of the western slopes where surface wind gusts
may be moderately strong and gusty prior to arrival of rainfall.
Have indicated gusts in the 30-40 mph range along the western
slopes from about dawn through early afternoon, but once rain
commences, should see enough PBL stabilization to limit
stronger winds to the higher summits.

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Just to add from this morning...

MVL had a low of 31F and when I started my car this morning it said 33F pulling out of the driveway. 

This was one of the earlier frosts I can remember though I haven't really looked back too much.  Rooftops and the more open yards/fields had that white glow of frozen water.  The type of deal where there was no frost within 20-30 feet of woods/trees, houses, etc but if the area was open enough there was a heavy white frost glistening.

We usually fog out here, but as you can see in the photo there was no fog...and I think that helped a lot in getting the temps as low as they got.  I was thinking 37-38F, not lower 30s.  I didn't cover the garden but this afternoon it did look ok, a little tired but seemed like most of the stuff will be fine.

IMG_0532.JPG

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On ‎9‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 10:43 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Sorry Alex.   I see you scored a 29.8F.   I was almost going to respond to your post last night that I didn't think you would get a killing frost/freeze.  The high cirrus have been pesky and I thought that might save you.  So what was your growing season?  Third week of June to Sept 8th?   Cold in my house this AM but not going to start the stove or heat.  Nice warm low of 43F for me.

Yesterday's 32 ended the growing season here at 112 days - May 19 had last 32 or below.  21-year mean is 115, median 113.  The May frost was 5 days ahead of average, Sept. 8 days ahead.  Last year 1st frost was Sept. 2 then we didn't get another until the 29th.  There's a chance that this morning might be the last one this month.

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6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Yesterday's 32 ended the growing season here at 112 days - May 19 had last 32 or below.  21-year mean is 115, median 113.  The May frost was 5 days ahead of average, Sept. 8 days ahead.  Last year 1st frost was Sept. 2 then we didn't get another until the 29th.  There's a chance that this morning might be the last one this month.

Don't know what my mean is but it would be 78 days for us. Those poor plant's gotta hurry

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8 minutes ago, alex said:

Don't know what my mean is but it would be 78 days for us. Those poor plant's gotta hurry

That's about what I had in Fort Kent.  1978 fouled up my system with a frost on July 31.  Was the growing season before then or after?  ('Before' gave me 44 days, 'after' only 27.)

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Driving around my area yesterday the streams have almost no water in them.  I'm running between a 9-12" rainfall deficit in the past 180 days  while areas just south of me have a surplus.  NNE needs rain.  Yet again it looks like a good slug of rain from the remains of Flo will pass just to the south of the areas that need it.  Still time to move it north but trends don't look good.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Driving around my area yesterday the streams have almost no water in them.  I'm running between a 9-12" rainfall deficit in the past 180 days  while areas just south of me have a surplus.  NNE needs rain.  Yet again it looks like a good slug of rain from the remains of Flo will pass just to the south of the areas that need it.  Still time to move it north but trends don't look good.

Keep it out of here! We can’t dry out. Mold, mushrooms, algae, root rot, etc max wind speed the past 3 days was 4mph. Everything is a soggy mess. If you’re going to pull it north you better pull it north all the way. ;)

on a side note, I planted my last chestnut tree last night. A few of them don’t look too well. I can tell they had root rot when I took them out of the pots. They’ll probably make a comeback with the cooler soils.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Keep it out of here! We can’t dry out. Mold, mushrooms, algae, root rot, etc max wind speed the past , days was 4mph. Everything is a soggy mess. If you’re going to pull it north you better pull it north all the way. ;)

on a side note, I planted my last chestnut tree last night. A few of them don’t look too well. I can tell they had root rot when I took them out of the pots. They’ll probably make a comeback with the cooler soils.

1

  Fields are again super dry.  Of the 4 chestnut saplings, the one in the shade is doing good.  The others are dropping leaves and ground is hard as rock.  I just can't keep watering deep enough.  Pond remains empty and the brook at the bottom of my hill is trickling.  NNE needs a good soak.  

Here's the new  12Z Euro.  NNE and me get the shaft yet again.  You'll get 2-3" and report about chickens floating around and I'll watch the hills south of me obscured in rain why I'll sit high and dry yet again.  Still time for adjustments 50 miles N/S

Untitled.jpg

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We'll probably get short end of stick too. Just in time to start next lawn project

  Fields are again super dry.  Of the 4 chestnut saplings, the one in the shade is doing good.  The others are dropping leaves and ground is hard as rock.  I just can't keep watering deep enough.  Pond remains empty and the brook at the bottom of my hill is trickling.  NNE needs a good soak.  

Here's the new  12Z Euro.  NNE and me get the shaft yet again.  You'll get 2-3" and report about chickens floating around and I'll watch the hills south of me obscured in rain why I'll sit high and dry yet again.  Still time for adjustments 50 miles N/S

Untitled.jpg.5f5a0f55b0a4f4630b7e88ea5f19b2e4.jpg

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

We'll probably get short end of stick too. Just in time to start next lawn project

 

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Quick, spread some loam and grass seed. that will guarantee epic rains in your hood

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Forgot to post these, but earlier this week we had several days of awesome valley fog and undercast each morning.

This was from Thursday morning while preparing for a zipline photoshoot.  We are standing at 3,600ft at the top of the Gondola, with the summit ridge behind us at 4,000-4,395ft.  Out in the distance in front of us is the Worcester Range with the ridge elevations generally 2,800-3,600ft.

JX3O1qV.jpg

UymXp2f.jpg

qivB5Fx.jpg

IQJ2Ggb.jpg

 

 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Forgot to post these, but earlier this week we had several days of awesome valley fog and undercast each morning.

This was from Thursday morning while preparing for a zipline photoshoot.  We are standing at 3,600ft at the top of the Gondola, with the summit ridge behind us at 4,000-4,395ft.  Out in the distance in front of us is the Worcester Range with the ridge elevations generally 2,800-3,600ft.

JX3O1qV.jpg

UymXp2f.jpg

qivB5Fx.jpg

IQJ2Ggb.jpg

 

 

Spectacular shots PF, we’ve had some amazing days as of late – lucky we live here.

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20 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

  Fields are again super dry.  Of the 4 chestnut saplings, the one in the shade is doing good.  The others are dropping leaves and ground is hard as rock.  I just can't keep watering deep enough.  Pond remains empty and the brook at the bottom of my hill is trickling.  NNE needs a good soak.  

Here's the new  12Z Euro.  NNE and me get the shaft yet again.  You'll get 2-3" and report about chickens floating around and I'll watch the hills south of me obscured in rain why I'll sit high and dry yet again.  Still time for adjustments 50 miles N/S

Untitled.jpg

06z gfs gives my area a whopping 0.05-0.10".  Sandy River flow should drop below 25th percentile by tomorrow, and nothing significant (barring a northward yank of ex-Flo) before Friday at the earliest.  That run offers very little thru the end of the month.  Met summer precip was a bit AN but that was countered by significantly AN temps, increasing the water deficit created by my driest of 21 Mays here.

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From GYX this afternoon:

.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually increasing humidity will continue into tonight as
moisture from the remnants of Florence approach New England.
Eventually rainfall will move in from the southwest after
midnight and continue into Tuesday for the southern parts of the
forecast area. Near the Massachusetts border rain may be heavy
at times, while in the foothills it may struggle to rain at all.
So the distance between haves and have nots may not be that
large.

We got 2/3" from Gordon's remains, while points south and east got 2-4 times that amount.  Ratio might be infinite for this one.

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Yeah, was hoping for a northward trend.

From GYX this afternoon:
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually increasing humidity will continue into tonight as
moisture from the remnants of Florence approach New England.
Eventually rainfall will move in from the southwest after
midnight and continue into Tuesday for the southern parts of the
forecast area. Near the Massachusetts border rain may be heavy
at times, while in the foothills it may struggle to rain at all.
So the distance between haves and have nots may not be that
large.

We got 2/3" from Gordon's remains, while points south and east got 2-4 times that amount.  Ratio might be infinite for this one.


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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It's going to be interesting to see what model is most correct with the northern edge of the Florence precip.  18Z came north enough so that I'm forecasted to get near 2" while previous runs gave me near nothing.  Sharp northern edge storms have huge bust potentials.  Will be interesting to watch although NNE is out of this one and the wait continues.

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4 hours ago, alex said:

Just got a new house into our rental program. This is the view. So stunning!

07F7DD15-D1E1-4879-AA61-C462CD08AA55.jpeg

What a great view for a weather weenie.  Being able to watch snow lines etc. on the cone of Mt Washington.  Nice to be able to advertise such views.  Of course, could rent the property and end up seeing nothing at all.

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