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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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1 minute ago, SimeonNC said:

Sorry for the imby question, but how bad do you think it will get in our area? 

Right now, it's hard to tell man.  A landfall closer towards Myrtle has more effect on our weather than one further north around Jacksonville.  Some rain and wind, especially the further east you are in the area, is almost a certainty though unless best case scenario of the ridge breaking down enough for this thing to graze the coast somehow materializes.

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With-in 24 hours, We'll know about, 24 hours into landfall I'll try to get 'safely" as close as I can, record video.. (with-in reason & police).. 

I don't have a Wind aeromonitor , or barometric pressure gauge..

but I'll try to get good obs..

Are there "apps" for a smart phone,, android?  

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I posted this in the main thread as well but from the mw pass a couple hours ago it does look like some definitely core reorganization going on. I don't know if I'd call it a full eyewall replacement but there's a secondary maxima on at least half of the storm.

 

florencemw1.jpg

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Pretty clustered now just need them to shift east the next 6 runs...really though NHC has TS force winds onshore already at 8 am Thursday morning so that what 55 hrs out.....not much time for big dramatic changes......

06L_tracks_00z.thumb.png.10ea213979272ada3ff3c0b64fff2e76.png

 

 

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Just saw that Carteret County NC is under Mandatory evacuation for all cities and towns in the county. This starts tomorrow morning

Pamlico county is under Mandatory evacuation beginning tomorrow at 3pm.

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11 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Just saw that Carteret County NC is under Mandatory evacuation for all cities and towns in the county.

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

SC is already closing schools tomorrow. I guess better safe than sorry, but that seems a bit extreme.

They are closing many of the schools in counties in the central part of the state to use the facilities for evacuation centers.  They also need the school buses to help move people on the coast with no access to transportation.  They are doing this because Governor McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for the entire coast of SC.  They have approximately 1 million people in the low country to evacuate.  He is being proactive like Nikki Haley was.  I hope that clears up the reason.

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I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

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3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

According to WCTI it is for the entire county. For some reason I cannot attach the link.

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12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

I bought one off of Amazon and expect it Wednesday.

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1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Thought this was an interesting read. Would be great if the stall could happen soon enough and keep this thing to our east. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

I just finished reading all of that it it was so informative. Brad P went live a bit ago and he said too that nobody really knows how that disturbance coming from the gulf will interact with Florence. I'm anxious to see what things look like tomorrow afternoon. 

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The odds of steering currents breaking down is real, it’s just a matter of where at this point, it could be western NC, central VA or offshore (still very much on the table, climo supports).  The Euro gives pause but the trend over the past 24 hours is east, no doubt.

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This is just anecdotal, but I have seen a lot more 3-4 day model forecasts for stalls (leading to major flooding and disaster) than I have actually seen stalls happen. Really doesn’t tell us much about this situation...just an observation.

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10 minutes ago, sctvman said:

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is just anecdotal, but I have seen a lot more 3-4 day model forecasts for stalls (leading to major flooding and disaster) than I have actually seen stalls happen. Really doesn’t tell us much about this situation...just an observation.

GEFS would indicate a stall.  I agree, it should not happen, same as us not feeling direct impacts from a storm given the current position.  We are just clearing Bermuda to the south, still need to be real at this early stage.

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12 minutes ago, MaryB said:

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

If the Waffle House closes I hope you are on your way out of town. 

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24 minutes ago, sctvman said:

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

 

12 minutes ago, MaryB said:

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

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1 minute ago, yotaman said:

 

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

Governor ordered mandatory evac effective noon tomorrow.

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6 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

GEFS would indicate a stall.  I agree, it should not happen, same as us not feeling direct impacts from a storm given the current position.  We are just clearing Bermuda to the south, still need to be real at this early stage.

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

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53 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

Sheetz truck just pulled into the firetower location if you're having trouble finding gas.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

Harvey is more of the exception than the rule. Most hurricanes once they get in the 35 to 40N latitude area, inevitably get caught up in the mid-latitude troughs/westerlies. It's therefore harder for them to stall. I think we'll see Florence slow down after landfall but meander NW and eventually get caught up in the westerlies and swept out by an incoming wave. Some of the models looping it through NC and back out into the southern Atlantic seem far fetched. It's possible though, I've seen crazier things.

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