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Roger Smith

May 2018 temperature forecast contest, Regional Rumble, and annual max temp contest

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The usual monthly temperature forecast contest (and continuation of the now very close Regional Rumble) will be accompanied this month by the annual max contest. We have had this added bonus contest each of the past three years and most of our regulars have entered it -- see rules below.

For the temperature forecast contest, it's the usual challenge to predict the anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

For the annual maximum contest, it's simply based on the 2018 maximum for each of those same locations, with the season being all year rather than the summer months alone, as the max can happen in May or September. So add on those forecasts to your May anomaly predictions. 

Deadline for the main temperature contest is 06z May 1st with 1% penalties from then on every four hours to 18z May 2nd and 1% per hour late after that. 

There won't be a late penalty applied to the seasonal max portion, if you happen to forget and then edit them in before May 10th or so when I make up a table of entries for the seasonal max, that will be fine, and it gives me a few days to send reminders. And if anyone just wants to enter this seasonal max contest alone, that will be fine too. 

Good luck !!!

(April provisional scoring available, everything is tightening up in all contests ... and the snowfall contest is pretty much done now, as DEN is still way below even our minimum forecast and it's unlikely to snow (much) at the other locations -- that contest is updated when necessary back in the February thread but I will move the likely results to this thread around May 8th or so -- technically the contest runs to June 30th). 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     0.5     0.5         0.5      1.5     1.0       1.0      1.5     0.5

 

103    100    97        98        101     107       98       114    96

 

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DCA +2.2     

 

NYC +2.8

BOS +1.7

ORD +2.2

ATL +0.5

IAH 0.3

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.8

SEA -0.3

NYC

 

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 98°
ATL: 94°
IAH: 98°
DEN: 98°
PHX: 116
SEA: 91°

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.0    3.1      2.7         2.8      0.8     0.3        1.0      0.8     1.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 98°
BOS: 97°
ORD: 95°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 116°
SEA: 88°

NYC Metro subforum

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DCA +1.6 102

NYC +1.0 99

BOS +0.2 96

ORD +1.3 100

ATL +2.0 97

IAH +0.3 102

DEN -0.9 96

PHX -0.3 118

SEA -1.0 90

Mid Atlantic subforum 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.1      1.5       -0.3     0.0    0.7        2.0      2.4     2.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 97°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 94°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 117°
SEA: 89°

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DCA +2.1        98

NYC +2.3        99

BOS +1.1        97

ORD +1.9       97

ATL +2.3        99

IAH +0.9        98

DEN -0.4        97

PHX +0.7      121

SEA -0.3      93

TV

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DCA: +2.5 102

NYC: +2.1 99

BOS: +2.2  98

ORD: +1.1  101

ATL: +1.1 103

IAH: +0.8 103

DEN: +0.8 98

PHX: +0.9 119

SEA: -0.8  94

 

Philly

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Table of forecasts May 2018

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

afewUniverses bn __MA __________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.2 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _--0.5

Roger Smith ___ C + W___________+3.6 _+3.4 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________+3.0 _+3.1 _+2.7 ___ +2.8 _+0.8 _+0.3 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.6

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _--0.8

wxallannj _____ NYC _____________+2.2 _+2.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.2 _+0.5 _+0.3 ___ +0.8 _+0.8 _--0.3

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ +2.1 _+2.3 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+0.9 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _--0.3

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____+2.1 _+1.6 _+2.3 ___ +0.9 _+0.8 _+1.1 ___ +0.3 _--0.2 _--0.3

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___ +0.8 _+2.6 _+0.9 ___ --0.3 _+2.0 _+0.2

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ +1.0 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.3

 

___ Consensus __________________+2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.6 _+0.9 ___ +0.8 _+1.0 __0.0

 

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.5 _+2.2 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--1.1 _--2.0

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +1.8 _+1.7 _+2.2 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _--0.5

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________+1.6 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.9 _+2.1 _+0.1

mappy _________ MA ____________+1.6 _+1.0 _+0.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.9 _--0.3 _--1.0

RJay __________ NYC ____________+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 __0.0

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ +1.5 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ --0.3 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +2.0 _+2.4 _+2.6

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

________________________________________________________________________________________

** 17 forecasters, consensus is median (9th ranked forecast) **

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, where Normal is bold, it is colder than lowest forecast or tied.

A table of entries for the Seasonal max contest will be posted around May 11th, you have until end of 10th to edit or post those.

Good luck (nice to see only very small late penalties all round this month)

April results are posted ... Regional Rumble is very close. 

______ ____ ___ __ _ *** *** _ __ ___ ____ ______

Snowfall contest results are probably final now since all entrants have at least 14" left for DEN before increasing errors, will be moving that table from the

February thread to this one soon. 

 

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Was that for changes or the max temps? Normally for intended edits I allow them if a moderator can verify and you're a moderator so ... I trust you (thanks for pinning the thread by the way).

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First report on May anomalies with projections ... 

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0

________________________________________________________________

There is little sign of any further snowfall at DEN so with all forecasters holding at least 14" in reserve there,

contest outcome is likely sealed. I will check the tables back in the February thread and move the final results

here in a day or two. DonSutherland.1 is leading with hudsonvalley21 in second place. 

A reminder, anyone who did not give seasonal max predictions has until end of 10th to edit them in or post, 

then a table of seasonal max forecasts will appear. 

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We are good to go with the seasonal max contest, I think all the regular contest entrants have placed their markers so here's a table of forecasts ... in order of DCA forecast then where tied, NYC etc until the ties are broken ... and consensus will be our average rather than the median. 

Note (15th) will be adding actual values as we get into June, but SEA has already hit 88 (our minimum forecast) as of May 14th. 

 

Seasonal Max 2018 contest

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

Scotty Lightning ____________103 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

 

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

 

Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107122 __ 93

Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Near-final report on snowfall contest

The following tables are moved over from the February thread where they have been updated. DEN seems unlikely to see much if any snow in the next two weeks and since all forecasters have plenty left to give in terms of DEN error, we can probably assume these results are final even if we have to add small amounts to DEN totals and remove similar amounts of error from each forecaster. I will maintain a watch on this to June 30th just in case. But for now, it is congrats to DonSutherland.1 and hudsonvalley21 for leading the way in our snowfall contest. Glad we added DTW, BUF and BTV to the locations although ATL and IAH actually had more snow this past winter than in any of the contest years when they were included. 

Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

... this will continue to be updated to end of contest in this location ...

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 122.2

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 129.1

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 128.2

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.070.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 112.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 148.3

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ____ 98.5

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ____ 81.7

H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 130.4

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___103.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 130.7

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0  ___340.3 ___ 203.5

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___511.0 ___ 117.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___536.0 ___ 113.4

Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 123.2

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 155.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 187.8

 

Table of departures (errors) 

Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases.

Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases.

 

Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ______ 07.3 _ 06.6 _ 06.5 __ 12.8 _ 06.8 _ 00.3 __ 30.1 _ 03.3 _ 08.0 ____ 81.7

 2 hudsonvalley21________07.7 _ 01.1 _ 02.9 __ 10.9 _ 10.0 _ 21.3 __ 38.3 _ 06.0 _ 00.3 ____ 98.5

( 3) __ Consensus _____06.6 _07.2 _06.5 __12.8 _10.0_16.5__30.1_06.0 _07.3 ___103.0

 3 dmillz25 _____________09.2 _ 00.1 _ 02.9 __ 30.9_ 09.0 07.3 __ 34.3 _ 11.0 _ 07.3 ___ 112.0

 4 RJay ________________02.2 _ 00.9 _ 10.1 __ 13.9 _ 06.0 _07.7 __ 54.3 _ 02.0 _ 16.3 ___ 113.4

 5 BKViking _____________03.2 _ 07.9 _ 10.1 __03.9 _ 11.0 _ 02.3 __ 51.3 _ 06.0 _ 21.3___ 117.0 

 6 so_whats_happening___14.2 02.9 _ 03.1 __ 05.1 _ 25.0 _ 27.3 __ 27.3 _ 10.0 _ 07.3 ___ 122.2

 7 Scotty Lightning (SD) __ 02.2 _ 17.9 _ 14.9 __ 18.9 _ 06.0 _ 02.3 __ 59.300.0 _ 01.7 ___ 123.2

 8 Roger Smith _________ 11.7 _ 00.9 _ 00.1 __ 03.1 _ 16.0 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 13.5 _ 21.3___ 128.2

 9 Tom _______________ 11.8 _ 02.9 _ 03.2 __ 23.3 _ 07.6 _ 08.5 __ 45.8 _ 05.4 _ 20.6 ___ 129.1

10 H2OTown_WX ________06.6 _ 17.7 _ 18.7 __ 08.3 _ 22.3 _ 18.9 __ 14.9 _ 01.4 _ 21.6 ___ 130.4

11 Stebo _______________04.7 _ 07.2 _ 09.9 __ 13.9 _ 03.7 _ 47.3 __ 24.8 _ 03.0 _ 16.2 ___ 130.7

12 wxdude64____________08.5 _ 13.2 22.4 __ 18.7 _ 05.5 _ 10.1 __ 51.9 _ 07.2 _ 10.8 ___ 148.3

13 RodneyS ____________ 00.3 _ 15.9 24.1 __ 16.3 _ 15.3 _ 16.5 __ 26.4 _ 08.5 _ 31.7 ___ 155.0

14 SnoSki14 ____________05.8 35.9 _ 24.9 __ 03.9 _ 16.0 _ 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 26.0 _ 13.7 ___ 187.8

15 wxallannj ___________  04.5 _ 13.9 _ 26.9 __ 01.9 _ 18.0 _ 59.3 __ 32.3 _ 15.0 _ 31.7  ___203.5

 

Amounts to date _______ 7.8 _40.9 _59.9 __36.1 _61.0_112.3__25.7 _4.0 _ 88.7 __ 436.4

NOTE: Unless more than 15" more snow falls at DEN or any snow falls elsewhere, these standings can be considered final.

______________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.

Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red. 

______________________________________________________________________________

CLOSEST FORECASTS (to date) ___________ CLOSEST TOTAL SNOWFALL (current 436.4")

DCA _ RodneyS (+0.3) ___________________ 1. so_whats_happening _____ +1.6"

NYC _ dmillz25 (+0.1) ___________________ (2) Consensus ____________+22.6"

BOS _ Roger Smith (+0.1) ________________ 2. Roger Smith ___________ +23.6"

ORD _ wxallannj (+1.9) __________________ 3. hudsonvalley21 _________+30.1"

DTW _ Stebo (-3.7) ______________________4.  Stebo ________________--37.9"

BUF _ DonSutherland.1 (+0.3) _____________5. DonSutherland.1 ________+41.9"

DEN _ H2OTown_Wx (+14.9) _____________ 6. wxdude64 ______________+45.9"

SEA _ Scotty Lightning (0.0) ______________ 7. Scotty Lightning__________+49.6"

BTV _ Scotty Lightning (-1.7) ______________8. RodneyS _______________--52.0"

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Update on the anomaly tracker ... seasonal max contest table of entries posted so the first edition of this is back in the thread, will be adding the presumed final report on snowfall contest to that post next (later today) so check back if it isn't there when you read this.

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ notes 

 

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

15th ______ (14 d) ______ +7.9_ +5.9 _ +4.8 ___ +6.6 _+5.5_ +3.0 ___ +4.5_ +2.6 _+6.8 ___ ** compares to ** below

22nd ______ (21 d) ______ +6.7_ +4.3 _ +4.2 ___ +4.1 _+5.1_ +3.3 ___ +3.1_ +2.1 _+5.9 ___ ## compares to ## below

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0 ___ ** actuals above at **

15th _____( p21st NWS) __+6.6_ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.2 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _ +2.5 _+5.7 ___ ## actuals above at ##

22nd_____( p28th NWS) __+6.0_ +4.4 _ +4.0 ___ +4.5 _+4.5_ +3.7 ___ +3.5 _ +1.8 _+4.7

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0

15th _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _+4.0

22nd _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+4.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _+4.0

_____________________

15th _ The past week forecasts proved a little warm for parts of the northeast and Great Lakes as it actually turned very cool for two days, while for SEA the opposite occurred, warmth was predicted but record heat developed in the past two days, and combined that likely accounts for the larger errors but overall the accuracy of NWS estimates was fairly good at other locations, the overall average error was 1.34 deg. (0.5 for the best five). My longer term estimates (bottom row) take the p21d NWS values and assume half-strength continued warming at most locations since the patterns don't appear to change very much, continued similar for southeast to Gulf, so I feel that these end of month estimates are more likely to err on the conservative side. As all nine are still warmer than almost all forecasts, could be a green light for early provisional scoring.  

22nd _ This past week, NWS forecasts averaged an excellent 0.43 deg average error. The end of month projections all remain the same except for ATL which now appears closer to our forecast range so that gives all forecasters a boost of about 20 points.

________________________________________________________________

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Provisional scoring for May 2018

Most stations are running at or above our highest forecasts so if that trend is not reversed, the following order of scoring would be likely to persist, even if the totals go up or down for all forecasters. Scores are based on the latest provisionals posted above (previous post) and the scoring table is adjusted whenever those change. Scores in red at this point are for those very few forecasts higher than provisional values (to make it faster for editing later). High scores are in bold type. Since late penalties are small (1-2 pts) I have just incorporated them directly into the scoring for now. The station scores are pre-penalty and the various subtotals and grand totals from those subtotals are post-penalty (this is why the scores for various late entrants don't quite add up).

I will probably have to wait until early June to make decisions about two issues, high scores and boosted scores for ATL possibly. The old policy was to award high scores to both occasional and regular contest entrants but with this being May it's possible that afewU-bn will become a regular. His score is also blocking a boost of ATL scores to minimum progression, same issue in previous cases later into the forecast season. So you may see higher scores appearing for ATL even if the anomaly there exceeds 5.0. 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA___west___ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ___ C + W___________72 _ 88 _ 80 ___ 240 ___ 70 _ 70 _ 86 ___ 226 __ 466 __80 _ 94 _ 48 __ 222 ___ 688

afewUniverses bn __MA __________80 _ 90 _ 96 ___266 ___ 60 _ 80 _ 80 ___ 220 __486 __80 _100_ 10 __ 190 ___ 676

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________60 _ 82 _ 94 ___ 236 ___ 76 _ 36 _ 36 ___ 148 __ 384 __60 _ 76 _ 52 __ 188 ___ 572

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_36 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 169 ___ 56 _ 54 _ 74 ___ 181 __ 350 __68 _ 94 _ 10 __ 169 ___ 519

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ 40 _ 64 _ 76 ___ 180 ___ 40 _ 64 _ 50 ___ 154 __ 334 __60 _ 76 _ 46 __ 182 ___ 516

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________32 _ 56 _ 64 ___ 152 ___ 42 _ 52 _ 68 ___ 162 __ 314 __58 _ 98 _ 22 __ 178 ___ 492

wxallannj _______ NYC ___________44 _ 76 _ 74 ___ 194 ___ 64 _ 30 _ 36 ___ 130 __ 324 __56 _ 76 _ 14 __ 146 ___ 470

___ Consensus __________________40 _ 56 _ 70 ___ 166 ___ 46 _ 52 _ 48 ___ 146 __ 312 __56 _ 80 _ 20 __ 156 ___ 468

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ 30 _ 42 _ 70 ___ 142 ___ 14 _ 20 _ 44 ___ 078 __ 220 __80 92 _72__ 244 ___ 464 

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ 42 _ 66 _ 62 ___ 170 ___ 58 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 172 __ 342 __32 _ 74 _ 14 __ 120 ___ 462

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____42 _ 50 _ 66 ___ 154 ___ 36 _ 72 _ 48 ___ 152 __ 306 __34 _100_24 __ 153 ___ 459

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____50 _ 62 _ 84 ___ 192 ___ 42 _ 42 _ 46 ___ 127 __ 319 __56 _ 78 _ 04 __ 135 ___ 454

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________20 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 100 ___ 50 _ 50 _ 80 ___ 180 __ 280 __20 _ 80 _ 40 __ 140 ___ 420

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____42 _ 52 _ 86 ___ 178 ___ 38 _ 36 _ 52 ___ 125 __ 303 __46 _ 56 _ 14 __ 115 ___ 418

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________20 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 100 ___ 30 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 130 __ 230 __60 _ 90 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 410

RJay __________ NYC ____________30 _ 50 _ 60 ___ 140 ___ 30 _ 30 _ 30 ___ 090 __ 230 __30 _ 90 _ 20 __ 140 ___ 370

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________40 _ 50 _ 54 ___ 144 ___ 50 _ 64 _ 40 ___ 154 __ 298 __18 _ 38 _ 00 __ 056 ___ 354

mappy _________ MA ____________32 _ 40 _ 44 ___ 116 ___ 46 _ 60 _ 36 ___ 142 __ 258 __22 _ 54 _ 00 __ 076 ___ 334

Normal ________________________ 00 _ 20 _ 40 ___ 060 ___ 20 _ 20 _ 30 ___ 070 __ 130 __40 _ 60 _ 20 __ 120 ___ 250

 

 

Regional Rumble Provisional Scoring

Region _________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTALS

Mid-Atlantic ________ 266 ________ 220 ________ 244 ________ 730

Central + Western ___240 ________ 226 ________ 222 ________ 688

New York City ______ 236 ________ 180 ________ 188 ________ 604

PA/NY ____________169 _________ 181 ________ 169 ________ 519

Philadelphia _______ 192 _________ 130 ________ 180 ________ 502

___ Consensus _____166 _________ 146 ________ 156 ________ 468

TN Valley _________ 170 _________ 172 ________ 120 ________ 462

Southeast _________ 154 _________152 ________ 153 ________ 459

Great Lakes / OV ___ 144 _________ 154 ________ 056 ________ 354

Normal ___________ 060 _________ 070 ________ 120 ________ 250

________________________________________________________________________________________

(without the help of afewU-bn, MA scored 564)

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May 20 _ I have just checked the latest forecasts and guidance to end of month, the provisionals in use for the table above appear to be on track in general, so here's how the annual races are now shaping up ...

 

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - May 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

MAY based on provisional scoring ... best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year.

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

... the same applies to monthly award as shown, and to eastern subtotal best score as shown.

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________316 _304 _296 ____916 ____ 257 _330 _132 ____ 719 ___ 1635 __2*2*1 03*1 .2*.1 __ MAY*

so_whats_happening _178 _229 _311 ____ 718 ____ 263 _290 _220 ____ 773___ 1491 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

hudsonvalley21 _____ 243 _260 _272 ____ 775 ____ 163 _283 _263 ____ 709 ___ 1484 ___

wxdude64 _________ 282 _270 _330 ____ 882 ____ 206 _247 _142 ____ 595 ___ 1477 ___ 110 000 .1.0

DonSutherland.1 ___  250 _252 _292 ____ 794 ____ 205 _282 _179 ____ 666 ___ 1460 ___ 001*.100 .0.0

jaxjagman _________ 234 _220 _306 ____ 760 ____ 182 _284 _196 ____ 662 ___ 1422 ___ 001 000 .0.0

___Normal _________234 _227 _309 ____ 770 ____ 262 _235 _107 ____ 604 ___ 1374 ___ 000 101 .0.0

Scotty Lightning (SD) _227 _217 _316 ____ 760 ____ 247 _217 _137 ____ 601 ___ 1361 ___ 000 100 .0.1

___Consensus ______ 221 _227 _286 ____ 734 ____ 183 _262 _175 ____ 620 ___ 1354 ___

RJay ______________196 _252 _291 ____ 739 ____ 137 _266 _209 ____ 612 ___ 1351 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR

BKViking ___________231 _255 _294 ____ 780 ____ 147 _235 _183 ____ 565 ___ 1345 ___

Stebo _____________ 196 _202 _268 ____ 666 ____ 195 _262 _210 ____ 667 ___ 1333 ___ 000 001 .0.0

wxallannj __________ 216 _252 _276 ____ 744 ____ 184 _218 _185 ____ 587 ___ 1331 ___ 000 001

mappy ____________ 184 _195 _279 ____ 658 ____ 175 _244 _204 ____ 623 ___ 1281 ___ 001 000 .0.0

RodneyS __________ 226 _216 _254 ____ 696 ____ 185 _244 _154 ____ 583 ___ 1279 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR

Tom ______________ 207 _223 _282 ____ 712 ____ 144 _261 _123 ____ 528 ___ 1240 ___

dmillz25 ___________ 187 _157 _204 ____ 548 ____ 202 _238 _192 ____ 632 ___ 1180 ___ 000 010 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(4/5)_101 _157 _206 ____ 464 ____ 124 _092 _151 ____ 367 ____ 831 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

Mercurial (2/5) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/5)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (1)_080 _090 _096 ____ 266 ____ 060 _080 _080 ____ 220 ____ 486 ___ 111 010 .1.0 __ MAY 

nrgJeff _ (2/5) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/5) missed March to May, Orangeburgwx (4/5) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/5) missed April, May.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 282 _ 318 _ 340 _____ 940 __________ 0 0 2 __ Apr ______ 2301 (= 2)

BKViking _______________244 _ 292 _ 310 _____ 846 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2191 (= 6)

RodneyS_______________ 256 _ 344 _ 240 _____ 840 __________ 1 1 1 __May _______2119 (= 8) __ MAR, APR

so_whats_happening _____249 _ 319 _ 237 _____ 805 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2296 (= 3) __ FEB

DonSutherland.1 ________ 272 _ 260 _ 272 _____ 804 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______2264 (= 5)

Roger Smith ____________260 _ 280 _ 260 _____ 800 __________ 1 0 0 __ Jan _______ 2435 (= 1) __ MAY

Tom __________________ 273 _ 268 _ 246 _____ 787 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2027 (=12)

hudsonvalley21 _________ 246 _ 263 _ 275 _____ 784 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2268 (= 4)

 

__Normal ______________256 _ 238 _ 290 _____ 784 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2158 (= 8) __ FEB

__ Consensus __________ 242 _ 278 _ 262 _____ 782 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2136 (= 8)

 

wxallannj ______________ 234 _ 296 _ 238 _____ 768 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2099 (=10)

RJay __________________198 _ 248 _ 268 _____ 714 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2065 (=11)

Orangeburgwx (4/5)______232 _ 259 _ 220 _____ 711 __________ 1 2 1 __ Feb _______1542 (=16)

wxdude64 _____________ 240 _ 226 _ 235 _____ 701 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2178 (= 7)

jaxjagman _____________ 192 _ 248 _ 250 _____ 690 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2112 (= 9)

dmillz25 _______________ 181 _ 257 _ 222 _____ 660 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1840 (=14)

Stebo _________________ 138 _ 202 _ 192 _____ 532 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1865 (=13)

mappy _________________140 _ 196 _ 175 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1792 (=15)

H2OTown__WX (3/5) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18)

Mercurial __ (2/5) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN

afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 080 _ 100 _ 010 _____ 190 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 676 (=20)

nrgJeff ____ _(2/5) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/5) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-May) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

Mid Atlantic _______________1084 _____ 877 _____ 917 ________2878

Central + Western _________ 1070 _____ 858 _____ 846 ________2774

NYC ______________________961 _____ 820 _____ 984 ________2765

PHL ______________________972 _____ 657 _____ 964 ________2593

PA / NY ___________________718 _____ 773 _____ 805 ________2296

TN Valley _________________ 808 _____ 662 _____ 700 ________2170

___Normal ________________ 770 _____ 604 _____ 784 ________2158

___ Consensus _____________734 _____ 620 _____ 782 ________2136

Southeast _________________ 628 _____ 513 _____ 828 ________1969

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 666 _____ 667 _____ 532 ________1865

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

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