NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Heaviest snow on the Euro is after nightfall, which should help with accumulation. It's plenty cold enough. Surface temps are in the 20's for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 When is the start on the EURO, nothing through tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's plenty cold enough. Surface temps are in the 20's for most locations. I know, I'm just scarred from the last 3 white rain slizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 temps will be cold enough that was the difference last 3 storms in nyc from all snow to snow rain mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: I know, I'm just scarred from the last 3 white rain slizzards. Euro and Ukmet never showed the last 3 events with below 32 degrees at the surface. This time both models are and so is the GFS. I am still cautious, but this looks great for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 since the first storm, ive been hearing "this one is going to be colder so its all snow" how did that turn out? lol ill believe it when i see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, triniiphone said: since the first storm, ive been hearing "this one is going to be colder so its all snow" how did that turn out? lol ill believe it when i see it! There's a HUGE difference between a temp profile that supports snow but still has surface temps above freezing and a temp profile that's below freezing to the surface. Should the globals' temp profile prove correct, we'd have no problem accumulating. It's just a matter of them vs. the NAM, which shows some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Is wind and coastal flooding possible with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Could be considered conservative 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is looking like a 1-2 feet snowstorm for everyone. Is the above frame before the storm's completed? Wondering if someone can reconcile these two posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Thanks for the reassuring replies. This is my first winter in NYC; I grew up in Allentown and went to school in upstate NY so I'm not super familiar with local climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: Thanks for the reassuring replies. This is my first winter in NYC; I grew up in Allentown and went to school in upstate NY so I'm not super familiar with local climo. Welcome to the city. Speaking for myself, having grown up west of Baltimore, there are a ton more snow chances than I was used to growing up, but the heat island can definitely be frustrating in borderline setups. Looking forward to a storm that doesn't have temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Is the above frame before the storm's completed? Wondering if someone can reconcile these two posts... The models have a classic noreaster signature snowstorm with the 500 mb low closing and stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Can this rival January 4th of this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12Z Euro indicates the possibility of >1" per hour rates on Wednesday afternoon, ratios will be better for this event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Can this rival January 4th of this year? This is going to be more snow because it'll cover more area in my opinion if you take the Euro run verbatim. Dc to Boston 1-2 feet plenty of cold. I'm hyped now The king has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Can this rival January 4th of this year? Doubtful. I had incredibly low visibilites for quite sometime that day. Awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I love how the NAM is the new midrange king. It’s literally sniffed out almost every storm this year before the other models. Kind of hilarious. Recent upgrades have been tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 January 4th was only great from the city East. This storm will impact everyone. If things come together perfectly, it could be a weaker version of January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Welcome to the city. Speaking for myself, having grown up west of Baltimore, there are a ton more snow chances than I was used to growing up, but the heat island can definitely be frustrating in borderline setups. Looking forward to a storm that doesn't have temp issues. Yeah, pre-2009-10 was dismal being in EPA. Few storms and the ones that did come up smacked the coast or the Poconos, leaving me fringed or raining. Between Jan. 1996 and Feb. 2010 I think KABE only had one double-digit snowfall (PDII; Feb. 2006 might have gotten there at the airport but not at my house). Things have definitely been more exciting recently. E: Sorry for the off-topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: January 4th was only great from the city East. This storm will impact everyone. If things come together perfectly, it could be similar to March 18, 2017. I think you mean March 14th, 2017 and LI did not fare as well against NJ, and lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I love how the NAM is the new midrange king. It’s literally sniffed out almost every storm this year before the other models. Kind of hilarious. Recent upgrades have been tremendous. it's amazing-this model used to be a laughingstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: I think you mean March 14th, 2017 and LI did not fare as well against NJ, and lower Hudson Valley. I was actually way off, I meant January 2016, see my edited post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro actually showed this coastal storm first last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's amazing-this model used to be a laughingstock. They’ve struck gold with it. Outperforming globals in the 48-84 hour range is quite astonishing considering the purpose of the model. Hell at this rate they could look to extend it and make a DGEX 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it's amazing-this model used to be a laughingstock. The Euro hasn't been the same since some of the recent upgrades. The GFS always seems to be the first model to latch onto a threat, but almost always loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The NAM before 60hrs is an excellent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just for a laugh, what are the models showing for this weekend? Anything significant snow wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: While the surface is plenty cold, the Euro did have a sneaky warm layer between 800-850 mb closer to the coast. Hopefully, later runs will trend away from this. Long Island almost always battles sleet in these setups until the CCB gets cranking. Once that takes over, I believe this is all snow right to Riverhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Doubtful. I had incredibly low visibilites for quite sometime that day. Awesome stuff. Yeah, that storm was a whiteout for a couple of hours. Had there been more blocking, Jan 4th would have been an all time great. In any event, the Euro has my attention but a lot can still go wrong so I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Anticipating Upton's thinking with their new forecast within the hour as well as if to see if any WSW go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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