NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Even the crappy CRAS is on board. Wave 1 Wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I say for my location 7-10 inches, locally 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Second look, red area is greatest potential, light blue area is lowest potential for > 6" of snow for both events combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GEFS has over an inch of LE for the city with 850s and boundary temps below zero for 90% of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: GEFS has over an inch of LE for the city with 850s and boundary temps below zero for 90% of it. Just a heads up, ensembles are even worse at forecasting temps than global models. I would stick with the higher resolution, NAM, RGEM and ECMWF for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Second look, red area is greatest potential, light blue area is lowest potential for > 6" of snow for both events combined That red should be dragged almost to the shore. Almost every model shows greater than 6 inches for the shore. Even Mt. Holly is saying at least a 40% chance of greater than 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: That red should be dragged almost to the shore. Almost every model shows greater than 6 inches for the shore If I wanted to use one of those clown maps, I would have just posted that instead of drawing a map. The immediate NJ coast is going to have BL issues with the second storm, and I'm not confident that they won't have issues with wave 1 either. Remember this is late March, not January or even February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z HRDPS basically gets nothing North of Southern Monmouth County for wave 1 and hefty amounts are from Seaside and Points South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just a heads up, ensembles are even worse at forecasting temps than global models. I would stick with the higher resolution, NAM, RGEM and ECMWF for temps. OK, thanks. Still nice to see a healthy QPF number from the average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: OK, thanks. Still nice to see a healthy QPF number from the average though. The QPF is certainly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z HRDPS basically gets nothing North of Southern Monmouth County for wave 1 and hefty amounts are from Seaside and Points South. That's where I am. Just about 5 minutes inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: That red should be dragged almost to the shore. Almost every model shows greater than 6 inches for the shore. Even Mt. Holly is saying at least a 40% chance of greater than 5" If you’re talking about this area right on the shore, I’m not sold on a significant event. Storm 2 will really have to produce since storm 1 will probably be a near miss. It’ll be a couple of degrees colder than the prior events but we will still need good rates and avoiding dry slot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z Euro is south with the first wave, however second wave is a tremendous hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Bombs away on the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Could be considered conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looking forward to seeing the next frames between 21Z Wed and 6Z Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: That's where I am. Just about 5 minutes inland If you live five minutes inland you could be teetering right on the edge. I would say it really depends on how far South you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Picture Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you live five minutes inland you could be teetering right on the edge. I would say it really depends on how far South you live. West of Seaside Heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Picture Perfect Legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Can't ask for better from the Euro for a late March storm, relatively slow mover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Classic, confluence from that ULL is way up in the Canadian Maritimes with a dome of fresh high pressure building Southward from Quebec and a perfect feed of moisture into the area on the 500mb jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: West of Seaside Heights It's going to be very, very close for you. I could see you fighting off sleet for most of the event or getting buried. Really depends on exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is looking like a 1-2 feet snowstorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sometimes sleet can be a good thing. Last years March storm have me a good amount of sleet in Coastal CT. Result was 9.5 inches of snow and sleet mixed. The sleet kept the snow pack linger due to density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 degrees at EWR, 30 at NYC during the heaviest precip, massive snowstorm all the way to the coast. The only place you have to watch is East of the GSP in Central and SNJ where 925mb temps briefly go above freezing. These events can also have a sneaky warm tongue somewhere, but on paper this looks about as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Deepest panel, 980mb. Storm begins to weaken as it pulls East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z JMA came North too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Heaviest snow on the Euro is after nightfall, which should help with accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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