March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who cares, enough of this cranky....he’s a nobody who all of the sudden is getting noticed. 

We all bust...but just own it.

People respect that.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

03z RPM is def slower than 00z too...prob a good 2 hours slower.

Yeah, Lets slow this down and unload.

[TalcottWx]

12:30am 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here’s the 0z hrdps which keeps ticking west. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

And the sporting club...............

[TalcottWx]

12:30am OKX

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

There is no Van Buren lake.  You mean Long lake?  

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There is no Van Buren lake.  You mean Long lake?  

Eagle Lake possibly.

[RikC]

when does the EURO start appearing???

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

when does the EURO start appearing???
 

50 minutes

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RikC said:

when does the EURO start appearing???

 

About an hour...I'm prob not staying up for it...I'm sure a few here will though.

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

Maybe... but I don't think it's simply extrapolation of current radar... the entire system retrogrades northwest with northern stream pull later Tuesday morning, and that is gonna be critical for the bigger totals.

That critical aspect can't be extrapolated from radar, and that's what I'm trying to see if we can nowcast.

Gonna be a thrill of a morning. You staying up all night? I'm thinking of recharging for a few hours.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Eagle Lake possibly.

Im staying on Long lake.  Rode across Eagle Lake today.   There is no Van Buren Lake that I know of??  And I’m very familiar with the area. Van Buren cove on Long lake..but no Van Buren lake.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Maybe... but I don't think it's simply extrapolation of current radar... the entire system retrogrades northwest with northern stream pull later Tuesday morning, and that is gonna be critical for the bigger totals.

That critical aspect can't be extrapolated from radar, and that's what I'm trying to see if we can nowcast.

Gonna be a thrill of a morning. You staying up all night? I'm thinking of recharging for a few hours.

Yea, I didn't mean to imply extrapolation tells the whole story....but it at least gives you an idea of the haves and have nots in a worst case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll crash after euro.

[78Blizzard]

Uncle?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Uncle?

Slightly east.

[MarkO]

22 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

lol, are there Dionne's left in Van Buren? I thought we all moved to out?

[rnaude241]

04z HRRR is a tad slower than 03z

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Man this whole storm is ending up slower than modeled

[NYCGreg]

Well, the NYC thread is dead, so I'm following with you guys.  Not looking too good for us at this point, though I suppose there is still some hope left if the storm is slower and can get captured earlier. Where is the guy who kept touting that there would be a full phase?  Even if he is wrong I'd like to read more of that stuff.  Hope is a good thing, even if Red in Shawshank Redemption disagrees.

I should say Hoboken (just west of NYC).  Obviously parts of LI will do fine.

[TalcottWx]

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We all bust...but just own it.

People respect that.

Speaking of which, im back and radar is looking good

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Satellite shows the storm center wrapping up on the west envelope of guidance

[Roger Smith]

I don't think it's slow, it's pivoting with an elongated center now, leading portion is around 38N 71W and trailing back at 36.5N 73W. It looks like it's trying to hook up with the inland ULL while the one chasing it is pushing it northeast, therefore some elements on radar and satellite imagery are moving more or less due north (across LI into s NE). 

This will explode in next 3h, can already see the pressure falling faster now at buoy 44066 north of the center. Should be S+ over the Cape by daybreak. 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

Yea, I'm seeing the same thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if the north shore can get some cj action this time...interesting returns flying in from the ne off of the ocean...in advance of the main precip shield.

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if the north shore can get some cj action this time...interesting returns flying in from the ne off of the ocean...in advance of the main precip shield.

Ya was just looking at BOX radar and noticed that....what is that?  OES?

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

HRDPS supports that, the band just sits and pivots over us into southeast MA for hours

[ice1972]

She's comin in hot.......really really love WV loops.....

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-96&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100