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Typhoon Tip

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

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Actually almost dead on SLP of 12z GFS at 72 hrs, pretty good consensus for moderate impact to eastern SNE... and ensembles signal an even closer track

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro in its famous small steps westward each run. This will continue here on out with a big event back to Berks 

If EPS continue to be well west, we can get cautiously excited. Also, Euro has been southeast with almost all nor'easters this season and has trended NW with time. 

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lol. I had to look that word up.   Whoops!

If your erection lasts more than four hours, please contact your doctor immediately

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so...I was just speculating on an NAO block working in tandem with a PNA ridge.

I figured the stall was BS on the other systems because we had a tough out west.

Scooter said it won’t stall until well to our NE

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2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

If your erection lasts more than four hours, please contact me immediately

FYP (all in fun)

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Oops didn't even know we had this thread yet, was posting in general March thread

12z Euro qpf > 0.5" roughly ORH east, >1" roughly south shore to Cape

12z Euro and GFS almost dead on with SLP at 72 hrs... and ensembles support an even closer track

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will you lend a hand?

 

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FYP (all in fun)

Both of you live closer to him than I do...rock paper scissors and take one for the team

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  • Haha 2

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The cure for that is almost worse than the disease.

A southeast ridge on steroids all winter?

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It's almost as if the northern stream started to dominate this run and pull the baroclinic zone back a bit. Def a good sign. I know Tip was discussing how the northern stream is the biggest driver here and this run really took it to another level. That's def what we want for a closer track. 

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

 

Both of you live closer to him than I do...rock paper scissors and take one for the team

One look at me can easily cure it....

  • Haha 2

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's almost as if the northern stream started to dominate this run and pull the baroclinic zone back a bit. Def a good sign. I know Tip was discussing how the northern stream is the biggest driver here and this run really took it to another level. That's def what we want for a closer track. 

There's a nice kink..a vort that extends from it, almost like a hand grabbing it in..lol.

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22 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Out to 60 and no commentary? Seems bad lol

Actually the opposite... several of us were doing pbp / commentary in wrong thread

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Just now, wxsniss said:

Actually the opposite... several of us were doing pbp / commentary in wrong thread

Well to be fair I didn’t comment but I had about 5 model windows open so couldn’t multi task fast enough...lol.  6+ for us the n the euro.

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not intending to toot horns here but, the hunch of an incoming Euro correction was just recognizing it was written on the wall... but, I don't believe this is done, either. 

We may actually get an over compensating run yet before settling into a compromise that I believe may be near or slightly E of the BM.  The interaction of the N/stream and giant cold lobe descending smartly and partially into the backside will aid in extending the verifiable QPF NW.

Also, ... the N/stream interaction is giant and dynamical.  It's going to persist (most likely) a lagged amount of instability and frankly that set up strikes me as a Norlun look...  Some may assert that's room for farther west corrections ... but, I get the feeling we're nearing a threshold where if this can only jog so far west before a pure subsume would have to transpire, and I still wonder if the streams are moving to fast to allow that to happen.  It almost seems a near miss/partial phase with potent impact is more likely.

Taking inventory (which is changing...) looks like a warning event up to PVD-BOS with advisory from HFD-EEN ... again not etched in position by any means.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's a nice kink..a vort that extends from it, almost like a hand grabbing it in..lol.

Laugh ... but that's the "partial" .. .and probably at the physical threshold where any more and it plunks in and N/stream collapses toward LI -

I know you know this but ...people need to appreciate how close that is.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Laugh ... but that's the "partial" .. .and probably at the physical threshold where any more and it plunks in and N/stream collapses toward LI -

I know you know this but ...people need to appreciate how close that is.

Oh I know,and agree with your thoughts.  I like srn stream energized lows with the nrn stream capturing type events. This is very close and 30-50 miles west (which is doable esp) would gave an immense impact given the frail grid and coast issues. 

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