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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

Meh, conviction sometimes overrides evidence. I'm more interested to see how he backpedals if he's wrong.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

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