• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    nyrangers1022
    Newest Member
    nyrangers1022
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

March 11-12 Potential Storm

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Through 72hrs on the 12z JMA it is way south. Gives most of Virginia a trace of precip. 

the JMA has never been close..like the euro

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cae said:

GEPS has been consistently getting better over the last several runs, and the MSLP off OBX has barely budged in the last 2 days.  First some caveats:  we're getting to the point at which the global ops start outperforming ensembles, and there's probably a lot of rain in here.  But today's GEPS run was the best of them all.  Almost certainly the best of the winter.  Only 3/21 members give me less than 1".  I can't figure out how to create a GEPS mean snowfall map, so... enjoy.

sk7lspW.gif

(The above are all through 12z on 03/13)

Gotta love the member 1 that gives the Winchester area 3-4 feet and the rest of the nw burbs 2-3 feet. lol. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol

@cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that?  Can I get the link for it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Can't post it since I'm on mobile, but the Canadian ensembles were pretty sweet.


.

probably the best two panels for us. 

081EC93D-99AC-4EE7-9EBA-5FADD4152B8F.jpeg.2a249d07c7435c07122836b4496fefb0.jpeg

E6BF93E5-51E9-4DEA-B2AB-60F022736D8D.jpeg.3c3a4032506f66f77139ad9b5567aaa9.jpeg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, yoda said:

I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol

@cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that?  Can I get the link for it?

he has been making them himself

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mappy said:

he has been making them himself

Ah, thank you for letting me know.  And thank you for posting the two images of the CMC ENS above

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, yoda said:

I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol

@cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that?  Can I get the link for it?

http://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/grib2/raw

1 minute ago, mappy said:

he has been making them himself

Right.  I've been using Panoply.  Not too hard once you get the hang of it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ah, thank you for letting me know.  And thank you for posting the two images of the CMC ENS above

welcome

1 minute ago, cae said:

http://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/grib2/raw

Right.  I've been using Panoply.  Not too hard once you get the hang of it.

oh, nice you do have a link to them. wasn't sure. but i knew you were making them :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ensembles have been sweet for this storm quite a bit on the GGEM but who cares.....i need to see it on the OP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gotta love the member 1 that gives the Winchester area 3-4 feet and the rest of the nw burbs 2-3 feet. lol. 

Yeah I don't know if it's the low resolution or if they're on to something, but the GEPS have consistently favored more western tracks with a risk of rain along I95 than most of the other models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro pops an LP near Houston @48hrs.  That's slightly better than the previous run, but doesn't provide much hope that anything would get near DC.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, eurojosh said:

Euro pops an LP near Houston @48hrs.  That's slightly better than the previous run, but doesn't provide much hope that anything would get near DC.

the NAM had a similar LP location and it got snow into DC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Southern stream is too far south for a quick phase, but Euro digging the NS faster in canada at 48rs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Euro pops an LP near Houston @48hrs.  That's slightly better than the previous run, but doesn't provide much hope that anything would get near DC.

Be careful of premature posting!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dont know how this happened it but hard to hate this...looks like NAM

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Be careful of premature posting!

You could be right - I'd be delighted to be corrected by the run.  Hr 72, LP in SC, let's see if it scoots out or turns the corner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the UKMET, NAM and  maybe the euro are trying to give us a storm with a different evolution

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:

dont know how this happened it but hard to hate this...looks like NAM

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png

here is the NAM at 72 that got heavy snow into DC

nam_z500_mslp_us_25.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It's an improvement at least.

It is. Need the northern wave to be west of the southern one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:

like normally, this would be exciting right?

ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png

yup, its an improvement, but in order for the phase we all need, that northern vort needs to get behind the southern one and grab it. right now its squashing it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Looks like a central Virginia crush job unless it heads north.

Then New England.   Snowhole wins again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we're actually getting to a point of model convergence on a low that slides through SC/NC giving a little snow to VA and rain to SC and NC.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.