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tornadohunter

2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Might be a decent roll cloud with the line from the looks on radar.  :weenie:

Here is the leading edge of the line as it rolled into Huntington County. We were on this particular part of the line because it was the section that didn't look outflow dominated. Nothing severe, but pretty cool nonetheless.

IMG_0846.jpeg

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Looks like at least a modest severe threat around here on Wednesday. Instability, or lack of, is the biggest issue, with rather poor mid level lapse rates and lots of clouds expected.  If better heating can be realized, then it could get a little more interesting.  Surface low is progged to be deepening with respectable wind fields. 

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IA/MO upgraded to ENH risk for tor... 10% probs introduced

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST MO TO
   CENTRAL IA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes and isolated to scattered damaging winds are expected from
   parts of Texas to Iowa, mainly through about 9 PM CDT. The most
   likely area for multiple tornadoes is from northwest Missouri to
   central Iowa.

   ...TX to IA...
   Have upgraded to Enhanced Risk for tornadoes across parts from
   northwest MO to central IA. 

   Shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will move
   north-northeast into the central Great Plains through tonight.
   Attendant 1003-mb surface cyclone near the central OK/KS border
   should deepen slightly as it tracks toward the Omaha vicinity by
   evening. An extensive QLCS is ongoing in an arc from eastern OK into
   north-central TX and then through central TX. The surging portion of
   the line will generally track east towards the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
   regions with trailing portion more slowly progressing east across
   much of eastern/southern TX this afternoon. In addition, more
   discrete convection should develop from the Lower MO Valley towards
   the Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon.

   The swath of stronger low-level flow will shift northeast from KS/OK
   towards IA/MO in conjunction with the ejecting trough and surface
   cyclone. This should correspondingly result in enlarged low-level
   hodographs overspreading the western periphery of moderate
   boundary-layer heating underway across central/eastern MO into
   eastern IA. This scenario may result in multiple, discrete tornadic
   supercells developing from northwest MO across central IA around
   peak heating. 

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Meanwhile downgraded here in WI despite more sunshine than I thought this AM...nearly overcast now though. It smells like spring outside which feels very strange with the trees beginning to turn. HRRR is bouncing around like mad every hour with the location of potential discrete rotating cells in S. WI, but what it does tell me is I need to keep a close watch on radar trends later this afternoon.

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For what it's worth - the significant tornado parameter is up to 1.0 over the Kansas City region, and is expected to reach 1.0-2.0 values over Missouri/Iowa in 2 hrs (SPC mesoanalysis)

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth - the significant tornado parameter is up to 1.0 over the Kansas City region, and is expected to reach 1.0-2.0 values over Missouri/Iowa in 2 hrs (SPC mesoanalysis)

Even within that line itself the environment is pretty favorable for mesos. Any northward surging segment of that line would be a candidate.

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The local mets were all on tv for four hours this afternoon/evening due to the tornado warnings.  However, all they really did was follow wall clouds across the area.  One met, Terry Swails, seemed bored by evening and was clearly ready for a break.

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Although it pales in comparison to all the excitement with Michael, I went on a spur-of-the-moment chase yesterday afternoon and got on the little cell near Arena/Spring Green, WI just as it was tornado-warned. The updraft tower and striated base can be seen in this video from my dash-mounted GoPro. A few scans showed a bit of a couplet but there was nothing confirmed from it.

 

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