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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hmm... It's certainly entertaining :)   however...I don't honestly know where you are getting the melted equivalent QPF in interior N/central purple region for 30"  

Even at 12::1 that's pushing the tin a bit.  I suppose we could flat out over perform QPF ...and one would be right by meso banding.  I mean, if we have a general layout for say 1.8" liq equiv, and then a band with thunder sends two level yellow stationary for 3.5 hours, you're going to over achieve in that band.  

I won't say it can't happen, ...I am just not sure it is "likely" enough to support 30.   I don't have problem with 18 or 20" as the upper bounds.  That all said, ... yeah, at some point if we wanna be 'greats' in this prognostic antics ...we have to take chances and put out the fringe calls, and seeing as there is enough variables at least within reach... it's unclear how 'fringed' 24 to 30" really is. 

Personally, I'd go 16" for the girth of the interior, and put the hills of Worcester and the plateau region out near Barre ... up through the Monads for 22" or so...  but would literally say to the public, some of the latest guidance suggests these numbers could even be higher - I think that ending statement 'tints' enough to rescue one's efforts if people wake up to a GFS blue dawn cryo wonderland

Thank you for the feedback Tip.

Yea, I'm thinking the jackpot zone will have that perfect combo of higher ratios/duration/meso banding/elevation. Obviously not a slam dunk by any stretch but I felt chances higher than 50% so I went with it. Also, some storms you --as a forecaster-- have a good handle on for days, whereas others leave you scratching your head even as they happen. This one was the former for me, so I felt higher confidence with it.

A separate point is consensus weather forecasts these days are cheap; really cheap. Never going to succeed in this space by being with the consensus. Back in the day I far exceeded consensus --on average-- on wxchallenge by going against the grain when I had the confidence to do so. There's an irony to this of sorts -- you want no one to agree with you in the present; and everyone to agree with you in the future...

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thank you for the feedback Tip.

Yea, I'm thinking the jackpot zone will have that perfect combo of higher ratios/duration/meso banding/elevation. Obviously not a slam dunk by any stretch but I felt chances higher than 50% so I went with it. Also, some storms you --as a forecaster-- have a good handle on for days, whereas others leave you scratching your head even as they happen. This one was the former for me, so I felt higher confidence with it.

A separate point is consensus weather forecasts these days are cheap; really cheap. Never going to succeed in this space by being with the consensus. Back in the day I far exceeded consensus --on average-- on wxchallenge by going against the grain when I had the confidence to do so. There's an irony to this of sorts -- you want no one to agree with you in the present; and everyone to agree with you in the future...

 Good ol' days in WxChallenge. I won 5 trophies and finished inside top 25 by doing this approach. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thank you for the feedback Tip.

Yea, I'm thinking the jackpot zone will have that perfect combo of higher ratios/duration/meso banding/elevation. Obviously not a slam dunk by any stretch but I felt chances higher than 50% so I went with it. Also, some storms you --as a forecaster-- have a good handle on for days, whereas others leave you scratching your head even as they happen. This one was the former for me, so I felt higher confidence with it.

A separate point is consensus weather forecasts these days are cheap; really cheap. Never going to succeed in this space by being with the consensus. Back in the day I far exceeded consensus --on average-- on wxchallenge by going against the grain when I had the confidence to do so. There's an irony to this of sorts -- you want no one to agree with you in the present; and everyone to agree with you in the future...

Couldn't agree more...but you also have to be ready to eat it sometimes....happened to me last Friday.

Obviously doesn't have the same implications as when you do it professionally, but still sucks.

Thankfully that has been happening with  less frequency over the course of the past couple of years.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

 Good ol' days in WxChallenge. I won 5 trophies and finished inside top 25 by doing this approach. 

Sometimes consensus is right. You have to pick and choose your battles. You can't be balls to the wall every single time.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
Just now, WxBlue said:

 Good ol' days in WxChallenge. I won 5 trophies and finished inside top 25 by doing this approach. 

That's impressive. I can't claim anything like that. You should forecast more on here! I only played one term in undergrad but I finished top 10% overall out of ~1400 forecasters. 

That said, I was most satisfied with crushing NWS forecasts and model guidance....

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

Sometimes consensus is right. You have to pick and choose your battles. You can't be balls to the wall every single time.

Exactly. Usually I stay close to consensus 75% of time and forecast outside the box only when I'm confident models are off (radiational cooling, mixing on clear day, picking up on model bias, etc.) It's a marathon, not a sprint.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

SPC Meso comparison to 12z NAM: surface low at 17z is slightly east of where it was on 12z NAM

Will be interesting to see how much these HRRR ticks east continue...

Maybe a few more ticks as we get closer in? I think it’s less about the ticks now, and more about dynamics. I think it’s gone far enough east that even down here as long as the rates are good we will get some good snow.

Some of these hrrr runs really want to bury down towards the canal area... which would be interesting because the forecast has been all rain there for days

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

We should add up the total number of wxchallenge trophies and championships in this subforum. :lol::weenie:

I've been doing pretty bad. I'm ranked 580th through the entire contest this year. Granted I have had a couple days (all this semester) where I climo'd. PArt of it is not having the time to really look into details. I also really suck at forecasting lows. I think the method I use for highs works much better in the warm season too than the cold season

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That's impressive. I can't claim anything like that. You should forecast more on here! I only played one term in undergrad but I finished top 10% overall out of ~1400 forecasters. 

That said, I was most satisfied with crushing NWS forecasts and model guidance....

That's my hope for next winter. Right now, I'm just chilling and watching y'all talk it out to educate myself on the art of winter storm forecasting. That and learning the geography of New England.

Funny thing is I called for 12-20" in southern NH right before Ray posted his final call having the same thing.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been doing pretty bad. I'm ranked 580th through the entire contest this year. Granted I have had a couple days (all this semester) where I climo'd. PArt of it is not having the time to really look into details. I also really suck at forecasting lows. I think the method I use for highs works much better in the warm season too than the cold season

MSN and FLG were BRUTAL. I went from inside Top 15 to 40th. Freaking consensus doing well these days...

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
Just now, WxBlue said:

That's my hope for next winter. Right now, I'm just chilling and watching y'all talk it out to educate myself on the art of winter storm forecasting. That and learning the geography of New England.

Funny thing is I called for 12-20" in southern NH right before Ray posted his final call having the same thing.

Yea i gotcha. Don't want to half-ass it. And I've had egg on my face a handful of times due to not understanding the climate here well enough. I moved here 2.5 years ago from LI, and still learning a lot in this regard.

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