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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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Yep after this system gets out of the way. We will go to look at Mondays storm and say....where did it go??

Nam had us hook, line and sinker with today's storm...Fish on!!   :lol::lol:

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

3.3” of heavy wet snow this morning from that band, which is starting to feel that March sun through the clouds as precipitation has let up for now. I can’t believe it... an overachiever. Near term models left me for dead when I went to back to bed this morning. 

 

 

That's crazy... we have zero on the ground in State College and nothing but a light rainy mix all day.

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2 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

That's crazy... we have zero on the ground in State College and nothing but a light rainy mix all day.

Well a good majority of it melted away this afternoon as sun came out and we got up to about 40ºF or so haha. There's only a couple patches left in the yard. I slept through the snowband responsible for this and woke up right after it ended haha.  Most of Altoona toward I-99 is back to nothing. I found out in my travels across town earlier that most of the city didn't see nearly as much as this end of town near the PSU Altoona campus, which is right at the foot of the Allegheny Front. 

Unbelieveable snow band setup near Philly to NYC. I-95 wins again. 

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29 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

CTP says nada for Sunday/Monday storm.
 

I didn't see that update to their long term last time I looked early today, they had previously said about the model spread and great uncertainty for that system. This current one suckered me back into having to talk about it since it looked like up til this time yesterday it was going to whack half the subforum when I was eyeing that next storm as a much better potential threat for us. This other threat is by no means dead and I did mention the other day that I expected the models to probably "do their thing" since it was still a long lead time. Though I didn't expect models to completely lose it. I will say if this thing comes all the way back to the big threat it was a few days ago it will be an exclamation point on the Euro's performance this winter... which I really haven't perceived to be superior to the GFS for the most part. 

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49 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

CTP says nada for Sunday/Monday storm.


.

They issued a WSW for me Monday morning for today. Forgive me if I’m not compassionate right now. 

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Latest CTP long term mentions storm

 

 Once this system moves to the north, the pattern becomes
more zonal. There is another storm system on the horizon, Sunday
night into Monday. However the latest ensembles for both the EC
and the GEFS have a wide range of solutions so have little
confidence in timing and strength of storm. So have left some
chance POPS.

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This is an example of modeling being fooled by the weather. I am certain that at 6pm the conditions were favorable for this to occur as we thought but something changed in the conditions. Psuhoffman in mid atl forum was bothered that late night rap and hrrr were showing an eastward movement but many thought those models were incorrect.

But nws and meteorologists have to make a call and pull the trigger to prevent school and business issues the next day. This only goes to show that models need more improvement and can have a hard time when there are many moving pieces. Even Horst thought the worst and he is very cautious about his forecasts and he is local to our area.

Perhaps next week can be the storm before winter ends.

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3 hours ago, snowalot said:

This is an example of modeling being fooled by the weather. I am certain that at 6pm the conditions were favorable for this to occur as we thought but something changed in the conditions. Psuhoffman in mid atl forum was bothered that late night rap and hrrr were showing an eastward movement but many thought those models were incorrect.

But nws and meteorologists have to make a call and pull the trigger to prevent school and business issues the next day. This only goes to show that models need more improvement and can have a hard time when there are many moving pieces. Even Horst thought the worst and he is very cautious about his forecasts and he is local to our area.

Perhaps next week can be the storm before winter ends.

Until we control the weather, the weather will control us. I was watching from afar, and thought it was a bit warm for the amounts called for in EPA. Everyone (just about) got this one wrong, it happens.I don't blame the mets or the models, we just don't know enough about the atmosphere to get it right all the time.

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9 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

NWS was awful on this storm.

Well when you have a pretty solid consensus on models all the way up to 18z on Tuesday when the storm's supposed to start in 12 hours or less, they were certainly well within reason for upgrading their headlines as this was supposed to be (and ended up as) a very high impact system.  It was a sudden shift in guidance really late in the game.. and with the tight gradient and compact nature of the nor'easter it made the shift even more notable. You can't knee jerk on one cycle of model guidance either and with the storm onset pretty much imminent you gotta at least ride things into the first part of the event. At least that's how I view it. But stuff happens, sometimes it happens in reverse too (see Jan 25, 2000). Have you seen some of the snow totals in the neighboring regions? There's widespread PNS reports of over 2 feet of snow from this storm in northern NJ and it clobbered Philly pretty good as well. Considering the fairly short length of the event those totals are pretty insane. The extremely intense snow bands could have easily been into the LSV. 

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Well when you have a pretty solid consensus on models all the way up to 18z on Tuesday when the storm's supposed to start in 12 hours or less, they were certainly well within reason for upgrading their headlines as this was supposed to be (and ended up as) a very high impact system.  It was a sudden shift in guidance really late in the game.. and with the tight gradient and compact nature of the nor'easter it made the shift even more notable. You can't knee jerk on one cycle of model guidance either and with the storm onset pretty much imminent you gotta at least ride things into the first part of the event. At least that's how I view it. But stuff happens, sometimes it happens in reverse too (see Jan 25, 2000). Have you seen some of the snow totals in the neighboring regions? There's widespread PNS reports of over 2 feet of snow from this storm in northern NJ and it clobbered Philly pretty good as well. Considering the fairly short length of the event those totals are pretty insane. The extremely intense snow bands could have easily been into the LSV. 


What happened Jan 25, 2000?


. Pro

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Well when you have a pretty solid consensus on models all the way up to 18z on Tuesday when the storm's supposed to start in 12 hours or less, they were certainly well within reason for upgrading their headlines as this was supposed to be (and ended up as) a very high impact system.  It was a sudden shift in guidance really late in the game.. and with the tight gradient and compact nature of the nor'easter it made the shift even more notable. You can't knee jerk on one cycle of model guidance either and with the storm onset pretty much imminent you gotta at least ride things into the first part of the event. At least that's how I view it. But stuff happens, sometimes it happens in reverse too (see Jan 25, 2000). Have you seen some of the snow totals in the neighboring regions? There's widespread PNS reports of over 2 feet of snow from this storm in northern NJ and it clobbered Philly pretty good as well. Considering the fairly short length of the event those totals are pretty insane. The extremely intense snow bands could have easily been into the LSV. 

Yeah, I have to say I dont "blame" anyone for this one.  Consensus was pretty tight going in, and there wasnt an Eastern outlier in the mix until almost GO time.  This storm just shows that no matter how we follow models, there are always subtle shifts that can make/break us.  And to the point I made earlier this week, anyone that says anything in a tone of absolutism, is at some time going to get burnt.  

Philly and points N went from almost 0 to hero in a 2 run shift in the models.  We went the opposite way.

hoping Sunday/Monday starts its trek North on the models today.    

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58 minutes ago, canderson said:

It needs to move like 450 miles north ... not sure that'll happen lol.

Yet it did over half of that in 1 model run yesterday (mind you the wrong way).

keep wishing...its worked well for you all year ;) .  Plese let all of us know what's going to happen since you've got it figured out.  The drama is killin me.

12z yesterday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

18z 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

i'd rather it have to move north to get us, then move East or West :P

right with ya.  It just appears that the LP off NS is just going to bully this one due East off the MA coastline.  Boy do i hope I'm wrong.

FWIW, the 12z NAM shows at least a 250 mile shift NE with the LP now sitting on top of Myrtle Beach.

oh....that was one run movement from 6z which had it North of Savannah GA

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and I know that extrapolating the NAM at range is a fools errand, but I'm on a weather board discussing weather models.....so bear with me here.

I'm runnin out of straws to grasp for....so dont worry...I'll be gone soon.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and I know that extrapolating the NAM at range is a fools errand, but I'm on a weather board discussing weather models.....so bear with me here.

I'm runnin out of straws to grasp for....so dont worry...I'll be gone soon.

 

 

oh no, keep trying to work some Voo doo. Drink up

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4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

oh no, keep trying to work some Voo doo. Drink up

hehe.  I'm starting to think i lost what little mojo i may have had.

I need to find that [email protected] doll.  I think its back in Cali right now.

I'll have one tomorrow night....Promise ;)

 

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27 minutes ago, snowalot said:

We need the previous storm to move further ne to allow room for the our sunday storm to gain latitude.

just said that in the MA forum.  No matter how well storm forms, if it cant climb the coast....were toast.

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I'd like to comment on this past storm - in my county alone accumulations ranged from 0" - 10". If the storm would have been 25-50 miles west a lot of us would have spent the evening shoveling. To say that the NWS or anyone else was horrible might as well state that mets need to be perfect. If anyone can consistently pinpoint the development and movement of a low pressure system to less than 25 miles than weather is no longer a science or part of a prediction. Every freaking model that I saw from 12z and 18z on Tuesday had me getting near or above double digit amounts. And while meteorology is much more than model readings...how in the world do you go against that? You'd be almost foolish to do so. The fact is, there are subtle shifts with every storm and it's track. It just so happens that yesterday that shift took us from in the game to JUST being on the outside. That happens all the time. Yesterday it happened to us. It sucks, hurts, stinks, and everything else but it's the weather and even with the newest technology and every other advancement in weather prediction...these things will continue to happen. 

A lot of people looked really bad yesterday, but let's not call them horrible. To me that's a bit unfair. 

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35 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I'd like to comment on this past storm - in my county alone accumulations ranged from 0" - 10". If the storm would have been 25-50 miles west a lot of us would have spent the evening shoveling. To say that the NWS or anyone else was horrible might as well state that mets need to be perfect. If anyone can consistently pinpoint the development and movement of a low pressure system to less than 25 miles than weather is no longer a science or part of a prediction. Every freaking model that I saw from 12z and 18z on Tuesday had me getting near or above double digit amounts. And while meteorology is much more than model readings...how in the world do you go against that? You'd be almost foolish to do so. The fact is, there are subtle shifts with every storm and it's track. It just so happens that yesterday that shift took us from in the game to JUST being on the outside. That happens all the time. Yesterday it happened to us. It sucks, hurts, stinks, and everything else but it's the weather and even with the newest technology and every other advancement in weather prediction...these things will continue to happen. 

A lot of people looked really bad yesterday, but let's not call them horrible. To me that's a bit unfair. 

Normally Im not afraid to go after ctp a bit but can agree more with you on yesterday (non) event. We come here to discuss weather and models but in the end it’s still a best guess.  There was plenty of continuity in models for many hobbyist and pros well into short term to believe it was happening.  While it stings, that’s also the fun/challenge of this..especially if you were 25-75 miles east of forecasts going in.

Broad brush statements without some reasoning is bad for this sport. It’s hard enough so as it is. Let’s hooe a last minute surprise is in the works for Monday. Right now.... we need it, but it won’t take much for this to trend notably better for some. 

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