Superstorm Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nice Euro hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: WAA (warm air advection) is tonight. Typically gets out ahead of main show. Then we wait for coastal transfer and the main show to start later tonight. Thanks, i just need to determine plow start time so my lots open at 630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Maybe...but I remember during last week's storm that my actual temp was significantly lower than what the GFS was showing. I really hope so and the GFS has a warm bias, so you definitely have some reason to think it a tick or 2 colder. March is just tough, and antecedent air mass is ok...not great. Dynamics are driving the snow bus for this one. 12k for comparisons sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Gfs could be right wth thermals but I would not use it. Snow coming down heavily we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, daxx said: Gfs could be right wth thermals but I would not use it. Snow coming down heavily we will be fine. yep. if we get decent rates it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m chasing this thing tomorrow. I may be in the area pending how bad it gets. Either way, watching radar will be fun tomorrow. I’m getting ready for work. I’ll try to look at things tonight and make a post. This could be a massive surprise for many in here. Rates will be crazy under the CCB. 2”/hr stuff likely. Crazy H7/H85 fronto over S and SEPA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS has beeen warm all season,, I’d throw out it’s thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Notice how Eric has the mix line way N&W of what most do...good to keep in mind going into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: Notice how Eric has the mix line way N&W of what most do...good to keep in mind going into this. I think a lot of that is at beginning, when we start getting heavy rates snow will be piling up. That map is a good map. Heavier totals northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That’s a good map and he’s usually conservative too. Have to like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 27 minutes ago, daxx said: Gfs could be right wth thermals but I would not use it. Snow coming down heavily we will be fine. yeah i agree that with great rates, we overcome. I'm surely not trying to debbie. But if dynamics dont pan out, it may be trouble for some. thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: yeah i agree that with great rates, we overcome. I'm surely not trying to debbie. But if dynamics dont pan out, it may be trouble for some. thats all. Oh I agree a lot could go wrong with this. I am not comfortable at all with this set up. I do think the way things are shaping up we have our best shot of the season. If it doesn't work out at least it kept us occupied for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Oh I agree a lot could go wrong with this. I am not comfortable at all with this set up. I do think the way things are shaping up we have our best shot of the season. If it doesn't work out at least it kept us occupied for awhile. agree 100%. This has been a fun one. Havent even looked at next weeks at all today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: agree 100%. This has been a fun one. Havent even looked at next weeks at all today. No need to, Ji said it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 agree 100%. This has been a fun one. Havent even looked at next weeks at all today. You’re not missing anything there. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: No need to, Ji said it's over. well there ya have it, put a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Sauss nws says you should drive across a bridge for this, you'll go from nothing to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Sauss nws says you should drive across a bridge for this, you'll go from nothing to a warning. i joked the other day and said the Susquehanna river is the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That is funny; Harrisburg is in a WSW, Enola/Lemoyne/Wormlysburg doesn't even have a WWA. Something's screwy. Enola has 2-5" snow in the grid, Harrisburg 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i joked the other day and said the Susquehanna river is the dividing line. All gonna stop right there my man...you'll be out hitting grounders with a brew, while canderson is doing snow angels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: That is funny; Harrisburg is in a WSW, Enola/Lemoyne/Wormlysburg doesn't even have a WWA. Something's screwy. Enola has 2-5" snow in the grid, Harrisburg 3-6". I'm sure CTP will be filling in the edges with advisories, they still have a little bit of lead time left to put those in.. probably later this afternoon. The gradient is going to be sharp but not THAT sharp. Plus a couple bands of snow associated with the parent system will also be traversing PA west to east as well. Most models today (other than the NAM) seem to consolidate the precip shield for a brief time over all of central PA. Models like the RGEM have a second snow max/heavy snow band in the central counties which would easily warrant advisories there if that came to fruition. Pretty good consensus on track being right on the coastline, which typically is good for a big event for all of us. But coastal's a bit of a late bloomer so intense snowfall won't reach back into PA as far as it probably could. Water has been plenty warm off the coast so there will be plenty of fuel to blow this coastal up pretty rapidly. I wouldn't worry about temps where those intense bands develop. I think CTP will add in 1-2 tiers of counties of advisories west of the warnings and probably install the Laurels and maybe Clearfield/Elk/Cameron/etc as well for the system plus the NW flow/upslope regime that will be present in the wake of the significant coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, canderson said: That is funny; Harrisburg is in a WSW, Enola/Lemoyne/Wormlysburg doesn't even have a WWA. Something's screwy. Enola has 2-5" snow in the grid, Harrisburg 3-6". 26 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: All gonna stop right there my man...you'll be out hitting grounders with a brew, while canderson is doing snow angels! I'll just be sunning myself in the driveway drink shots of Jim Beam and drinking beer and he'll be tossing snowballs over the susky at me no kidding, it looks serious outside right now. Its getting that its gone snow look. Salute Fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Uhh 18z 12k bomb incoming. O M G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nam 12k total @ss kicking for lsv. NICE! Others to the west do good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM throws the hammer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Uhh 18z 12k bomb incoming. O M G should i get out my snow blower that has been in my garage all year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: should i get out my snow blower that has been in my garage all year? No All of this shoveling will be much better exercise. And all of the sweat and dehydration will make the beer so much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nam 3k is big hit as well for the lsv. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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