dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good for them. I'd like to see more definitive signs of it. Again, not betting against it....but not yet buying it. Understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 I just don't think its clear cut like last March...that is all. I don't mean that the possibility of it is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not disregarding anything. I don't take modeled stratospheric changes as gospel because they are often rushed and/or greatly exaggerated. Its akin to seeing a days 10 HECS modeled without teleconnector convergence. Why trust it? Same crap last January when so many folks were smoking the blocking pipe, which had no basis. Poof it went...then I heard the same crowd criticize me for not budging on the epic March idea. #damagedone Props to you for sticking to your guns. I was just curious about your thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Berg is shook... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I saw the Scandinavian ridge on weeklies too. If I’m not mistaken, I thought that was a decent precursor to winter blocking, but I may have pulled that out of me bum. Haven’t looked at any strat stuff other than it was cold a couple of weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw the Scandinavian ridge on weeklies too. If I’m not mistaken, I thought that was a decent precursor to winter blocking, but I may have pulled that out of me bum. Haven’t looked at any strat stuff other than it was cold a couple of weeks ago. Definitely showing up on ensembles as well, both GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 8 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Props to you for sticking to your guns. I was just curious about your thinking! Its all good. A lot of times I come off a lot more confrontational on here than I intend. All I mean is that I don't have a lot of confidence in an early disturbed vortex, but not discounting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 15 hours ago, weathafella said: Berg is shook... I’ve been prepping the snowmobile since the summer duldrums....but if we have to wait until MLK day to start the engine, me preocupa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 21 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said: yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1 Interesting findings I thought. This was also posted in the mid Atlantic winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I noted that the CP Nino events had more AK/Western Canada ridging as the north PAC low is further west. This would help out the northeast for storm threats, I believe. The "fake" -NAO in EP Nino with Canada baking from PAC flow doesn't really help things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: I noted that the CP Nino events had more AK/Western Canada ridging as the north PAC low is further west. This would help out the northeast for storm threats, I believe. The "fake" -NAO in EP Nino with Canada baking from PAC flow doesn't really help things. Exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot. This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot. This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it. Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think? I'm not sure if the east is required to be actually below normal for it to qualify as a modoki...I always thought it was just where the maximum SSTAs were located. If they were stayed central/west, then it was a modoki. But I admittedly haven't come across an overly technical definition. Just read some papers on Modoki in the past and they all seemed to focus on where the SSTA peak was and not how low or high the tails where on each side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot. This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it. I agree 100%. I just posted the same, exact thing in the main ENSO thread like an hour ago. I guess its "hybrid" since its not the most west-based event on record? Okay- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Ridge bridge us from mid Novie on. Liking 02 03 more and more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Ridge bridge us from mid Novie on. Liking 02 03 more and more Strongly agree on analog year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Strongly agree on analog year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Ridge bridge us from mid Novie on. Liking 02 03 more and more Could be even better for New England with a weaker ENSO...more Miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Not sure how good the canSIPS is, but has a nice look for winter in the recently updated run. Looks really great for Feb and Mar, with a stout -NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Not sure how good the canSIPS is, but has a nice look for winter in the recently updated run. Looks really great for Feb and Mar, with a stout -NAO block. I totally buy the NAO for February. What a difference a year will make- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 I say understand that we pretty much in a new mini ice age, snowfall 50 miles south or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I totally buy the NAO for February. What a difference a year will make- Would be huge. Last season was one month too late even though you tickled 30” in that one wet snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Would be huge. Last season was one month too late even though you tickled 30” in that one wet snow event. That was blower powder he almost got 30" in. The storm before that on Mar 7-8 was the birch bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was blower powder he almost got 30" in. The storm before that on Mar 7-8 was the birch bender. His 30” was wet I thought. Where the local mets ridiculed his measuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Well, I defer to your memory regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 It was fluffy...over 30". 24.5" max deph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: His 30” was wet I thought. Where the local mets ridiculed his measuring. Hey we did pretty good ourselves down our way. Tree even fell on my house. Easton had 28 from March 1st through the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey we did pretty good ourselves down our way. Tree even fell on my house. Easton had 28 from March 1st through the end of the season. Did well, could have been epic if a couple events were a tick cooler in the mid levels. There was the one bust where 12-18” forecast produced 0.0”. At least my office closed that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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