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Cobalt

March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not throwing the towel. That said things are bleeding the wrong way and we can see it. Pretty much all other guidance was bad already. And now the gfs is leaky. A bad op run. Slight trends the wrong way each run at h5. This is likely heading to fail. But it's close enough that a reversal of that trend is "possible" and wouldn't take much to get it right. 

We've been around long enough to know that things can and do go south on us quite often. So this very well could be a fail. That said I will keep tracking it until such time.

Looking at the overnight EPS and it still has a bad look but it did look as if it made a slight move towards the GEFS. Could be nothing more then noise or just a movement towards a solution in between the GEFS and the EPS but you never know.

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I found it interesting that some were baling after seeing the 06z op run. It looks as if could potentially be getting very interesting shortly. Fingers crossed. :) 

I don't blame anyone. It's been a long sucky year. Bailing is fine.  I don't care what others do. It's the people that come in here to call us stupid and tracking a waste of time that irritate me. I find watching cars drive in circles a waste of time but I don't go into NASCAR message boards and tell people that. They like it. Good for them. Who am I to take a dump on their hobby. 

ETA:  I respect the skill and knowledge it takes but racing just isn't my thing. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We've been around long enough to know that things can and do go south on us quite often. So this very well could be a fail. That said I will keep tracking it until such time.

Looking at the overnight EPS and it still has a bad look but it did look as if it made a slight move towards the GEFS. Could be nothing more then noise or just a movement towards a solution in between the GEFS and the EPS but you never know.

That's my guess how this ends and that probably won't work. But a compromise could be close enough that some late favorable breaks go our way. 

I'm also interested in what happens after. Even with a fail scenario a clipper could dive down the back side behind the march 7th storm and those can amplify this time of year. 

Beyond that march 12 still holds my attention as a setup with potential. The gfs and ggem are very close to a big storm there. Both just slightly north. But that's a west to east thing not a miller b. That could trend south some. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's my guess how this ends and that probably won't work. But a compromise could be close enough that some late favorable breaks go our way. 

I'm also interested in what happens after. Even with a fail scenario a clipper could dive down the back side behind the march 7th storm and those can amplify this time of year. 

Beyond that march 12 still holds my attention as a setup with potential. The gfs and ggem are very close to a big storm there. Both just slightly north. But that's a west to east thing not a miller b. That could trend south some. 

Granted I haven't looked to hard beyond our day 5/6 storm but from what I have seen it looks to be very active with systems in the ball park for possible snow. The next couple of weeks could get interesting. Or not. 

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6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C.   Not so much south and east of DCA.  It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. 

There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. 

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23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Nice chair other than the PBR stains.

those aren't PBR stains.

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To PSU, CAPE, Bob Chill and those that make this wx forum come to life thank you! I read the remarks and learn a bit more. I’m a lifelong DC resident about to hit 50 yrs of age and think my first wx memory was Hurricane Agnes. I’m a snow lover first and foremost ever since I was 7  or 8. PSU thanks for keeping this winter wx hope on life support. Each winter seems to have a personality of it’s own, this winter is sure strange....the discussions explain why it’s so hard for snow to fall here this year. A 4” snow really would be wild if it occurred this March. Will end as I started and say thanks and will keep the faith 

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C.   Not so much south and east of DCA.  It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. 

There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. 

I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. :lol: 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. :lol: 

I'm pretty much expecting this to continue to deteriorate. Looking at all the overnight guidance everything else handles the h5 progression the way the euro does. Taking that northeast into the lakes not digging it. The gfs is on its own. And it's starting to waver with bad runs and slow trends north. That's a pretty clear sign where it's heading. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm pretty much expecting this to continue to deteriorate. Looking at all the overnight guidance everything else handles the h5 progression the way the euro does. Taking that northeast into the lakes not digging it. The gfs is on its own. And it's starting to waver with bad runs and slow trends north. That's a pretty clear sign where it's heading. 

You could very well be right. But over the years I have found that quite often just when you think you know what the models are going to do they throw you a curve ball. So I won't give up, at least until I give up.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. :lol: 

oh? I haven't paid a lot of attention to the threat(s)

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C.   Not so much south and east of DCA.  It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. 

There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. 

With the tucked track it's showing it would be a divider. That track is usually awesome for us out here. Not so much to the east. But with the trends over the past 2 years I am not believing anything tucked to the coast. 

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Our quixotic pursuit continues to the bemusement of the outside world:

00 UT EPS gives most of the forum approximately a 10% chance of >6" of snow centered on Monday March 12th - save your snow days? 

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53 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Our quixotic pursuit continues to the bemusement of the outside world:

00 UT EPS gives most of the forum approximately a 10% chance of >6" of snow centered on Monday March 12th - save your snow days? 

Amazing to think that we have a 4 SD drop in the AO and a 2 SD drop in the NAO but nothing in terms of snowfall, storms and rainfall yes, but not what we desire. 

I had thought for our area the combo of - AO and - NAO was a trump card but beginning to think that the Pac rules, If not  for the big time - EPO in December snowfall would have been even lower.

Another realization is that even SSWE  like the one we just had are as mentioned by some are over-rated for our area, seems that the effects are more so the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. I have witnessed numerous images of snowfall in Ireland, the UK, Rome and amazing the general impact area. 

Maybe the effect the AO and NAO are better in a EL Nnino background state. Longe range forecasting is fun but there is still so much to learn.  

 

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

Our quixotic pursuit continues to the bemusement of the outside world:

00 UT EPS gives most of the forum approximately a 10% chance of >6" of snow centered on Monday March 12th - save your snow days? 

thats unusally high right?

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Even the SSWE followers cautioned that they had no idea which hemisphere would be affected.  May just be luck there. 

I think the Pacific is more important too as it is upstream from us.  Hopefully, our next -NAO will be accompanied by a 50-50 low. 

The NWS as opposed to snow-lovers seem to put more weight on the El Nino background state in 2-3 week forecasts as opposed to model produced indices

.

Yes 10% is pretty high for a small time window 10 days out.  

 

 

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I know the 7th has been moving the wrong way on the GFS, however, 12z shows a little more confluence and lower heights in front of the SW at 54

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know the 7th has been moving the wrong way on the GFS, however, 12z shows a little more confluence and lower heights in front of the SW at 54

Looking at h5 I’m going to say it won’t be good.  The better runs had the trough digging further south.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Looking at h5 I’m going to say it won’t be good.  The better runs had the trough digging further south.  

Agreed, just noticing heights out in front were a little better, also has it a little weaker in the plains, but its probably all negligible at this point.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Agreed, just noticing heights out in front were a little better, also has it a little weaker in the plains, but its probably all negligible at this point.

It’s uncanny how we just can’t get a snow threat to hold inside 5 days.  No matter what set up is thrown out it’s jusr never right.  

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Looking at h5 I’m going to say it won’t be good.  The better runs had the trough digging further south.  

Yeah, h5 is north of 6z..this won’t be good.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah, h5 is north of 6z..this won’t be good.

Looks pretty though.  Looks like something good at h5. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, h5 is north of 6z..this won’t be good.

by 5 miles. Lets let it play out

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Wouldn't give on it quite yet. Flattening the ridge out front giving a flatter flow. Let's see how it plays out.

Up top looks better too.  A little stronger -NAO and that 50/50 is trying to improve.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Wouldn't give on it quite yet. Flattening the ridge out front giving a flatter flow. Let's see how it plays out.

thats the biggest diffrence i see...ULL Is practically in same place

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