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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn Canadians.

This hobby sucks.  Not bailing yet, but man..all these kicks to the nuts are starting to have an affect.  

there is always something new that pops up that screws us.....we have -NAO.. kinda .50/50 low and it still a northern storm

gfs_z500a_namer_18.png

 

 

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Followed the 06z lead and then some. Getting more aggressive with bringing the energy/closed low in eastern Canada farther southeast to play havoc on our CONUS closed low. Looks as if the pattern is evolving at 500 mb so I wouldn't write anything off just quite yet. If fact I can see how this can still work out if we see further movement southeastward of that Canadian energy in future runs.

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm thinking if that southern Canada energy comes further sw and dives in it might cutoff our coastal low and pull everything southwest.  Just a thought.  ..implications..not sure 

Always a crap shoot trying to figure where the models are going in future runs especially when the 500's are so convoluted. I can see a couple of ways this could work, potentially even better, if we see a continuation of the trend to bring that E Canadian energy Swward. Whether having that energy absorbed by our CONUS closed low for the storm we are following. Or having that swing around our CONUS 500 low giving us a shot a day or two later. Or maybe even that energy just ups and goes poof and disappears. But then again I can see this very well being another fail of a long series of fails we have had this year. At this point, ignoring the other models, we are still very much in the game as far as the GFS is concerned.

eta: Still kind of mystified why we are seeing that Canadian 500 low end up being the dominate low as it absorbs the CONUS low. I am sure the models and the mathematics behind them are accurate but looking a things I would think he southern would be the dominant and we would see a reversal.

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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm thinking if that southern Canada energy comes even further sw and dives in it might help cutoff our coastal low and pull everything southwest.  Just a thought.  ..implications in our yards ..not sure .Definitely too early to write any scenario off.

 

52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Followed the 06z lead and then some. Getting more aggressive with bringing the energy/closed low in eastern Canada farther southeast to play havoc on our CONUS closed low. Looks as if the pattern is evolving at 500 mb so I wouldn't write anything off just quite yet. If fact I can see how this can still work out if we see further movement southeastward of that Canadian energy in future runs.

One way it could work is if the initial wave we thought was the threat is weak and whole h5 pinwheels and then something else "could" dive in behind and bomb. Even just a clipper this time of year can be something.  And then it's on to the day 10 threat. Not bailing based on one gfs op run. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They all do around that time, every time, right?

I'm pessimistic too but the pattern isn't hostile. It can snow in march in a Nina with nao help. It's happened before. Something could work with one of these waves in the next 12 days or so before it breaks down. The day 5 thing is being messed up by a weird badly timed system rotating around out of Canada and tugging on our h5 low at the wrong time. Bad luck. Not a seasonal problem. Not Nina. That's just bad luck. So while I think we're likely going to fail I'm not dismissing everything just on persistence. This pattern is vastly different then anything else we had all year. Probably just a new way to fail but not necessarily. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

One way it could work is if the initial wave we thought was the threat is weak and whole h5 pinwheels and then something else "could" dive in behind and bomb. Even just a clipper this time of year can be something.  And then it's on to the day 10 threat. Not bailing based on one gfs op run. 

That's pretty much what I'm thinking. The ULL is far from resolved. Looks like the track is going to be too far north for the lead wave but something can easily rotate around. That's med-short range kind of stuff but certainly on the table. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm pessimistic too but the pattern isn't hostile. It can snow in march in a Nina with nao help. It's happened before. Something could work with one of these waves in the next 12 days or so before it breaks down. The day 5 thing is being messed up by a weird badly timed system rotating around out of Canada and tugging on our h5 low at the wrong time. Bad luck. Not a seasonal problem. Not Nina. That's just bad luck. So while I think we're likely going to fail I'm not dismissing everything just on persistence. This pattern is vastly different then anything else we had all year. Probably just a new way to fail but not necessarily. 

I feel like the GFS ensembles were better than the OP tho no? Has the low originate around Raleigh and trek up to Cape Cod by hr 132. Precip looks uber wet as well? I haven't looked at thermals but I guess that may be the problem. Regardless, it's a great track.

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58 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

DT on twitter showing upper air panels comparing last night's Euro March 12 map with the superstorm of '93...

 

That's more than a little misleading by DT.  That's not last night's Euro compared to the '93 superstorm.  It's last night's Euro H5 compared to last night's Euro H5 + MSLP. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm pessimistic too but the pattern isn't hostile. It can snow in march in a Nina with nao help. It's happened before. Something could work with one of these waves in the next 12 days or so before it breaks down. The day 5 thing is being messed up by a weird badly timed system rotating around out of Canada and tugging on our h5 low at the wrong time. Bad luck. Not a seasonal problem. Not Nina. That's just bad luck. So while I think we're likely going to fail I'm not dismissing everything just on persistence. This pattern is vastly different then anything else we had all year. Probably just a new way to fail but not necessarily. 

Watching these runs has literally given me a tension headache this morning...just not our year. These "tough luck" scenarios the last two years have been gut wrentching...alright, I'll freeze my meltdown now...lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Watching these runs has literally given me a tension headache this morning...just not our year. These "tough luck" scenarios the last two years have been gut wrentching...alright, I'll freeze my meltdown now...lol

It's ok to be frustrated it's been harsh.  We had a run of epic good luck from 2014-2016. Luck ran out. 

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8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I feel like the GFS ensembles were better than the OP tho no? Has the low originate around Raleigh and trek up to Cape Cod by hr 132. Precip looks uber wet as well? I haven't looked at thermals but I guess that may be the problem. Regardless, it's a great track.

Gefs wasn't good. The mean slp is decieving. Low is weak and because of where the upper low is will be dry on the west side until it bombs and captures.  That's too late for us. The precip here is from the front and a few big rainers.  Only a few members even give me snow. The 2" mean up here is from one 20" member. And even that one is 0 at D.C.  Tight gradient. Not a single member shows a significant snow for D.C. area. It's stuck between ideas again. Either need that h5 low to dig more or get out of the way and let something pinwheel in behind. Having it linger just to our north is the worst case scenario. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's ok to be frustrated it's been harsh.  We had a run of epic good luck from 2014-2016. Luck ran out. 

I guess it's kinda like when we paid for 2009-10 from 2011-2013? Lol Well then I would like to think our 14'-16' debt has been paid...unless we gotta go one MORE bad year (please no!!)

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FWIW, the 12z GEPS doesn't look too bad compared to its previous runs.  One member has rediscovered the day-5 storm and gives DC about 2" qpf as snow.  There are also a number of hits showing up later in the run, generally favoring the northern tier.  I'll have a little more when the high-res maps come out.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs wasn't good. The mean slp is decieving. Low is weak and because of where the upper low is will be dry on the west side until it bombs and captures.  That's too late for us. The precip here is from the front and a few big rainers.  Only a few members even give me snow. The 2" mean up here is from one 20" member. And even that one is 0 at D.C.  Tight gradient. Not a single member shows a significant snow for D.C. area. It's stuck between ideas again. Either need that h5 low to dig more or get out of the way and let something pinwheel in behind. Having it linger just to our north is the worst case scenario. 

Gotcha man. Thanks for the clarification. Didn't mean to excite anyone lol. I am very interested in this storm, just for the fact that I will be in CT from wed-sun, so I am a little worried about travel and what not.

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GEPS snowfall mean imby is highest it's been in 3 days, and about 1/2 the members get me at least 1" of snow in the next 16 days.  I know that doesn't sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction compared to recent runs.

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess it's kinda like when we paid for 2009-10 from 2011-2013? Lol Well then I would like to think our 14'-16' debt has been paid...unless we gotta go one MORE bad year (please no!!)

Our snow climo is hostile 90% of the time. It's just a fact of where we're located. The thing that can be hard to grapple with is that we can get monster storms but the vast majority of days of every single winter don't include snow on the ground. The only reliable long lead signal for above normal chances of good snowfall is a moderate Nino (west based is optimal). Other than that, winters prone to underwhelm. Sometimes we go on heaters when we shouldn't. Other times we waste optimal patterns. More often than not we're right on a razor thin edge of having something work out or totally fail. I personally don't get stressed or emotional about any of it. I just fully enjoy when it works out but otherwise I just shrug my shoulders when it doesn't.

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10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I guess it's on to the next threat...lol

A lot of members get the slp south of us on the 12th. 

This may be our last chance on this frustrating winter.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_40.png

There are several hits with that. 

I'll take e15. That's the one that drops 20" up here from day 5 then another 24" from day 10 lol.

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