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WeatherFeen2000

March 2018 Model Discussion

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most models have a strong block for us beginning this March, and there will be a low pressure coming from the Texas panhandle/eastern Rockies and will depend on the block but most models have it ride up the eastern coast and kinda stall there for a day or two and drop buckets of precipitation. It’s still light years away weather time wise but this has the most potential probably this whole year to be a very destructive storm and possibly a downright blizzard. Post your future model discussions here

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pulled from the mt holly morning discussion

potentially more significant rain storm could move in later Thursday and Friday as low pressure develops near the mid-Atlantic coast. Some light snow is even possible on Friday in the far north with a northwest flow as the system moves NE away from the area.

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3 hours ago, Animal said:

pulled from the mt holly morning discussion

potentially more significant rain storm could move in later Thursday and Friday as low pressure develops near the mid-Atlantic coast. Some light snow is even possible on Friday in the far north with a northwest flow as the system moves NE away from the area.

The storm initially moves away but then retrogrades and eventually heads towards Bermuda.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The storm initially moves away but then retrogrades and eventually heads towards Bermuda.

Still far out, but I see people talking a weekend storm next week. Upton & Mt Holly both indicate rain is likely Thursday Friday next week.

same storm or different.

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42 minutes ago, Animal said:

Still far out, but I see people talking a weekend storm next week. Upton & Mt Holly both indicate rain is likely Thursday Friday next week.

same storm or different.

It’s a complicated setup and unknown at this time, but theoretically could all be the same system.

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The major lack of cold air problem I cited yesterday for the 3/2 storm is well apparent, unanimously so far on all 12z model runs; GFS, CMC, ICON, UKIE. We’ll see what the new Euro does, but so far the only model that showed a major snowstorm for the metro area was the operational Euro last night

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The major lack of cold air problem I cited yesterday for the 3/2 storm is well apparent, unanimously so far on all 12z model runs; GFS, CMC, ICON, UKIE. We’ll see what the new Euro does, but so far the only model that showed a major snowstorm for the metro area was the operational Euro last night

We know that everything has to go perfectly to get a snowstorm on March 2nd due to cold air not being established yet. EURO showed that it's possible, but it's a longshot. However there will not be a lack of cold air for the week of March 5th. That's when we have our best chance of seeing a snowstorm. When you combine a strong blocking pattern and the stormy month of March, odds are pretty high that we'll see a snowstorm at some point before the pattern breaks down.

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We know that everything has to go perfectly to get a snowstorm on March 2nd due to cold air not being established yet. EURO showed that it's possible, but it's a longshot. However there will not be a lack of cold air for the week of March 5th. That's when we have our best chance of seeing a snowstorm. When you combine a strong blocking pattern and the stormy month of March, odds are pretty high that we'll see a snowstorm at some point before the pattern breaks down.

Agreed. The PNA rises and EPO falls and the blocking relaxes but remains negative.

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18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The major lack of cold air problem I cited yesterday for the 3/2 storm is well apparent, unanimously so far on all 12z model runs; GFS, CMC, ICON, UKIE. We’ll see what the new Euro does, but so far the only model that showed a major snowstorm for the metro area was the operational Euro last night

We will be fine if the storm bombs out near us. The only problem is the PNA.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We will be fine if the storm bombs out near us. The only problem is the PNA.

PNA goes neutral to positive past day 10. Our best timeframe is March 10 to 20. And yes NYC can snow till April easily

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Big snowstorm on the gfs for the area for storm 2

Textbook March Miller A snow bomb. Too bad it's the LR gfs though that's the timeframe most favorable for one more snow event as the AO/NAO sharply rebounds. 

 

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Textbook March Miller A snow bomb. Too bad it's the LR gfs though that's the timeframe most favorable for one more snow event as the AO/NAO sharply rebounds. 

 

Euro continues to show a big snowstorm next week

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All the teleconnections, save the PNA which is trending towards neutral, show this time period as above average POTENTIAL for a major snowstorm. EPO will be negative as well. 6z GFS was close.

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to 12Z GFS and CMC guidance sends a front through the area next mid week with colder air but any storm develops too far east - waiting  to see if EURO does the same at 12Z

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Extremely frustrating if we get shut out the remainder of the year (snowfall). Especially since most areas are very close to seasonal average AND we have blocking in place as well as an improving PAC.

Would only be the 5th below average season for my area this century, but 2.5 inches away! Jeeze.

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winters when the ao hit its lowest -sd of the season in March...either there was a snowstorm around the date or a few days later and or the coldest temps of the month...

...

season.......ao min.....date.....
1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...

1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...
1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...
1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6...1.5" of snow in Brooklyn...
1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29...

1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5...

1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9...
1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...
1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7...

1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......3/12 24 degrees  coldest for the month...
1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...
1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month....
1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month...

2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold...

2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th...

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wednesday storm into Tuesday looks nice on the gfs and cmc. Cmc is warmer so it's good for interior areas.

CMC trending west is not a good sign obviously. Hopefully the blocking works again like it did this last storm.

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27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

CMC trending west is not a good sign obviously. Hopefully the blocking works again like it did this last storm.

CMC is usually too warm in this range.

Gefs looks great

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JB was beating his chest like Mighty Joe Young at his very good call of yesterday's event, made 3 weeks ago.   I think he likes the one near March 12 (seems too warm then, right now)more than Mar. 7-8.   This time dredging up the specter of March 1993, on its 25th. anniversary.

Meanwhile GFS is a foot by Mar. 7 PM.  What I do not like here is that this is a daytime event to boot.

Plenty of action and speculations to come before any walk along the beach in a bathing suit and short sleeved shirt can be attempted.   He is also predicting at this time, a hot summer centered on Texas, but expanding to EC later.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h&rh=2018030312&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=

Next run looks similar:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h&rh=2018030318&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=

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RJ is this supposed to a much slower moving Miller A kind of storm?  Something that could possibly be a 24 hr event or even more?

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's coming.   (A big storm that is)

I'm big on that storm because when you go back at our historical records, it seems that our biggest storms seem to recur around similar dates- and March 12-13 is one of those dates.

 

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