yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC043-107-WVC037-102045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180510T2045Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Jefferson WV- 412 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN...EAST CENTRAL CLARKE AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 412 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Round Hill, or 9 miles southeast of Charles Town, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Hillsboro and Lincoln. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. && LAT...LON 3910 7785 3916 7788 3921 7771 3909 7769 TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 250DEG 30KT 3915 7778 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Heavy hail core with the NW Loudoun cell... white pixels showing up on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Looks like a sup split in Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 418 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 418 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Purcellville, or 9 miles northwest of Leesburg, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, New Market, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Doubs, Park Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville and Tuscarora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 I’ll believe tennis ball-sized hail around here when someone gets a picture of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Looks like activity is splitting towards Frederick County and NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Looks like I'll be watering tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Just heard thunder, but looks like the storm will stay to the NW of me while also efficiently robbing the area of CAPE so the next line skips over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, mattie g said: I’ll believe tennis ball-sized hail around here when someone gets a picture of it. There's been baseball sized hail around here before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Woo sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Nice storm will pass just to my north and maybe skirt my area. Just like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Looks like DC region gets one more shot with the warned storms off in Fauquier/Culpepper/NW Prince William Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Woo sprinkles. 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: Nice storm will pass just to my north and maybe skirt my area. Just like last week. Some of that storm went through here. 20 minutes of decent thunder and heavy rain. .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Guess there must be weak rotation in the Northern Harford county storm as the Severe Weather Statement states "remain alert for a possible tornado" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 I don't even care about severe. I just want rain. Doesn't look like it's going to happen today. I guess I'll pull the garden hose out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Not a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 More rain and severe threats Monday and Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Some of that storm went through here. 20 minutes of decent thunder and heavy rain. .25" Wow nice. My area was basically caught between two cells. Another storm just passed to my north just now. They’ve been cleaning up in the past week. I’m not a whiner but I’m starting to feel a bit like EastCoastNPZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 lol Loudoun County sounding from 06z NAM NEST at 19z SAT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 12z NAM NEST showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM... suggests to me remnant EML and possibly a chance of some large hail bigger than quarters... esp with SHIP over 2.0. Best chance would be in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 12z GFS likes Saturday... Sunday... and Monday This is a sounding just north of EZF at 21z on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 I'm intrigued about the hail risk across the WV panhandle and Maryland tomorrow. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm intrigued about the hail risk across the WV panhandle and Maryland tomorrow. Could be fun. I think you will like the 1730 SPC disco for Day 2... enhanced risk for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Calling @Eskimo Joe and @Kmlwx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I think you will like the 1730 SPC disco for Day 2... enhanced risk for you Yup. Looks good I agree with it. We do best on days with good mid level lapse rates around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and some hail will be possible through Saturday night near and south of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley and portions of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region. ...Synopsis... Models remain consistent with the evolution of the mid/upper level flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. for the Day 2 forecast period. A large upper low will encompass much of the Intermountain West and adjacent portions of the Rockies and Pacific Coast states. At the same time, seasonably strong northwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to persist across much of Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States. A series of midlevel perturbations translating through the base of the western upper low will track from the upper Mississippi Valley through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region Saturday and Saturday night. At the surface, a front is expected to advance south through the Ohio Valley into western/central PA, while the eastern extent of this boundary shifts north from MD into southeast PA, and extend into NJ. Farther west, this front is expected to remain nearly stationary from central IL to far northern MO, and southwest through KS, intersecting a dryline in the eastern OK Panhandle and adjacent southern KS. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States... Severe probabilities and categorical risk have been upgraded across the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region. Boundary layer moistening is expected in advance of the southward advancing surface boundary, while strong diabatic heating and the eastern extent of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume contribute to moderate instability across the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Mainly elevated storms are expected to be ongoing north of the surface front at the start of Day 2, with activity becoming surface based as the boundary advances south into the destabilizing environment. Moderately strong deep-layer west-northwesterlies suggest line segments/bowing structures will be the primary storm mode, though effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt indicates embedded supercells will also be possible. There is increasing concern and confidence for several swaths of damaging winds across the upper Ohio Valley to the northern Mid Atlantic region, as suggested by several CAMs. A midlevel perturbation is expected to move through these areas during peak heating increasing the likelihood for thunderstorm development. A tornado threat will be possible across northern MD into southeast PA and adjacent NJ and DE, as low-level shear increases to the east and northeast of a surface low tracking into MD and along the warm front. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Peters.. 05/11/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 11, 2018 Author Share Posted May 11, 2018 I'm not in the enhanced. Sooo I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 i missed out yesterday both to the north and south. but had some really good views of the storms in PA as they went by. Enhanced for me tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm not in the enhanced. Sooo I'm out MoOc is on the southern end of the ENH and the front is sagging south not north. You're in a good spot. Wouldn't surprise me to see the ENH expanded south a bit. Tomorrow AM will tell a lot when we get the first few shots of the visible satellite. If there are healthy breaks then I'm probably "in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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