mappy Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 isolated stuff today maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 I'm definitely no expert but I would think that with some "okay" looking inverted-v profiles and fairly swift cloud layer motion any storms that do manage to pop may bring down some stronger wind gusts......Any storms that do manage to pop. The obvious limiting factor today is CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 The CAM signals for later today are inconsistent, but some do get some decent cells into our area. As noted above, the profiles may support some damaging wind threat. But wow, check out the shear profiles up in VT for later today - remarkable. If they had a little more instability, it would be a MDT risk day. When northern New England gets into the SVR threat before our area does, it's time to wave the white flag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Weak storms though. They always blow up humid airmasses severe wx threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 LWX AFD from this morning... probably a meh for Thursday afternoon, but still: Quote Surface dew points should rebound to near 60 F during the afternoon on southerly return flow, especially near and west of the Blue Ridge. This couple with modestly steepening mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km in association with the approaching 500 hPa shortwave yields CAPE values between 750-1500 J/kg (lower to the east where warm/moist return flow commences a few hours later). Modest shear for storm organization appears possible as well given 40-50 kts of mid-level flow. There may be at least a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds being the main threat, if the current forecast holds. Early morning stratus or patchy fog is indicated by some guidance, and that coupled with broken mid level clouds expected much of the day would hamper instability some, so especially given that this is a day 4 forecast, there remains considerable uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 From SPC Day 4- 8 OTLK For Saturday, the medium-range models develop an upper-level ridge in the central Plains and show zonal mid-level flow across the eastern third of the U.S. A severe threat would be possible with thunderstorms that can develop Saturday afternoon along a front. The front is forecast to be located from the mid Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. The ECMWF, GFS and FV3 move this front southward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday but show the upper-level ridge across the central states. If thunderstorms can develop further east along the front from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, then a severe threat would be possible. Overall, confidence in the models from Friday to Sunday concerning the exact location of the front and instability is too small to add a 15 percent contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 LWX morning disco re Thursday severe risk: Quote .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Mid-upper level ridging will build over the area Wed on backside of departing mid-upper level closed low while sfc ridging remains in place. This will support dry conditions Wed into Wed evening. Some lingering low level moisture could touch a stray shower over the highest terrain in the PM, but it should be very isolated. Southerly flow begins to strengthen late Wed night ahead of shortwave trough moving across the eastern Great Lks Thu. Showers are expected to overspread the area Thu morning well ahead of the front with nmrs-widespread showers and scattered t-storms expected Thu afternoon into early evening as cdfnt crosses the area. 0-6 km shear of 40 kt, moderate instability, and steep low-mid level lapse rates suggest a risk of some severe t-storms with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. SPC Day 3 Outlook has area along and west of the Blue Ridge under a marginal risk of severe wx. Cdfnt clears the area late in the afternoon or early in the evening with svr threat ending by 8PM Thu although showers could linger a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Not a bad sounding for 21z THUR from 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Oh come on... LWX afternoon AFD re Thursday potential: Thursday we continue to watch any severe weather threat. However, its notable that with the potential for weakening showers to limit insolation during the morning, and then dry air aloft becoming dominant later in the afternoon, plus dominant westerly flow aloft, its possible much of our CWA ends up missing out on significant convection. That said, CAPE and shear could both potentially be fairly signficant, and SPC has placed western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk. Warm advection ahead of the front should allow most spots to rise into the 80s on a gusty southwest breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 4 hours ago, yoda said: Oh come on... LWX afternoon AFD re Thursday potential: As long as they get my trees taken down (scheduled Thursday morn) it can storm all it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Actually...18z 3km NAM doesn't look too bad...sim radar even has stuff that looks more cellular than linear and decent looking soundings. I'm 1/4 in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 This sounding is from the 3km NAM in Central Maryland during the later afternoon (20z) on Thursday. I could draw up worse soundings. Lots of results in SARS too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This sounding is from the 3km NAM in Central Maryland during the later afternoon (20z) on Thursday. I could draw up worse soundings. Lots of results in SARS too. I like all the SIG in the Supercell portion of the SARS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 00z NAM is pretty nice lol... over 3000 SBCAPE, 40 knots 0-6km shear, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000, and ML Lapse Rates approaching 7.0 C/KM at KIAD at 21z THUR Even EHI is above 3 and supercell potential 72% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 NAM soundings for the 12z run still give us some southerly wind at the surface. I'm sort of in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM soundings for the 12z run still give us some southerly wind at the surface. I'm sort of in. weather.cod.edu has some nice supercell composite and fixed layer sig tor over the region around 21z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 12z NAM NEST sim radar decent... drives in some crappy showers around 15z... then blows up storms over us around 20z to 21z... has what looks to be maybe a sup in C MD at 22z... then drives one more small line or cell through DC around 02z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Decent as well... 12z NAM NEST UHI swaths through 02z FRI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Don't let Ian see you posting those swath maps Also...risky avatar around these parts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Thinking we get upgraded to SLGT risk on the Day 2 1730 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Thinking we get upgraded to SLGT risk on the Day 2 1730 OTLK The GFS wasn't particularly noteworthy at all. Doesn't look like southerly surface winds at quick glance on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The GFS wasn't particularly noteworthy at all. Doesn't look like southerly surface winds at quick glance on the GFS. I'd go with NAM/NAM NEST We'll see what the HRRR comes up with later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 12z GFS around DCA at 21z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 12z GFS likes Monday afternoon into the evening though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS likes Monday afternoon into the evening though lol Tuesday is even better - of course I'm getting on a flight Tue morning at 7am to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Tuesday is even better - of course I'm getting on a flight Tue morning at 7am to Florida. Incoming derecho that evening That's exactly how I missed the last derecho -- traveling to FL that morning for vacation with family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Incoming derecho that evening That's exactly how I missed the last derecho -- traveling to FL that morning for vacation with family The only way I'd be okay with that is if I got tropical action down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 woooo!!! slight!!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 We'll see if this line of storms can survive the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now