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Kmlwx

2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

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Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. 

As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate ;) 

Ready? Go.

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11 hours ago, yoda said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few STWs Tuesday morning or even a TW looking at the 00z NAM soundings across the area 

 

10 hours ago, high risk said:

    agree with this.    strong deep-layer shear profile in place (limited low-level shear) with some heating ahead of a possible narrow midday squall line

 

From the Jan Disco thread on page 21

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And remember - these things like to be a bit earlier than expected...so timing probably isn't great for max threat. 

True, but there will already be DPs in  the 50s and southerly winds feeding in the warm air.  Its not a high threat, but we could still see a few isolated reports

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering it's Jan....fairly widespread reports of TL would be a win in my book. Won't really know how that's going to go until radar lights up (or doesn't). 

This 100%. I'm just happy to even get a mention in the SPC outlook in January (on day 2 no less). I haven't even started to look at potential analogs for our severe season yet. Hopefully Ian chimes in with some encouraging odds for out Mid-Atlantic wedge risk. 

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Afternoon AFD from LWX about tomorrow severe storms potential:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday. High
pressure then builds over the area Tuesday night through Friday
morning then shifts offshore this weekend as another frontal
system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...Heights will begin to fall
quickly tonight as mid-level closed low over the middle of the
country lifts newd into the Great Lks region. As a result,
strengthening warm and moisture advective pattern will result in
a sig increase in showers late tonight into Tue morning. Models
are showing strong forcing (200-meter/12 hr height falls) over
the area with PWATs rising to around to 1.5 inches or 250 to 400%
of normal. In addition, wind fields will also strengthen with
models showing 850 mb and 500 mb winds of 50kt and 80 kt
respectively. With the substantial increase in winds and
moisture, there will be potential for t-storms late tonight into
Tue morning (09Z-15Z time frame). Stability indices and the
SHRB (high shear/low cape parameter) suggest potential for
severe t-storms given up to 500 J/kg of CAPE and strong wind
fields just above the surface with a line of showers
accompanying sfc cdfnt. Biggest threat for severe t-storms is
east of the U.S. Route 15 corridor in the 09-15Z time frame.
Cdfnt will push east of the Ches Bay by 18Z with showers ending,
but over the Appalachians the showers will continue and turn
into snow showers.

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Updated afternoon HWO:

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers or thunderstorms through midday Tuesday may be capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an
isolated tornado. The best chance of severe weather appears to be
between 7 AM and 1 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

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48 minutes ago, George BM said:

Probably WAY overdone but lol hrrr for tomorrow afternoon.

 

2112018 1z HRRR.png

        There is little doubt that shear tomorrow afternoon will be fabulous;   it's a question of whether we can have any src-based instability.     Both the HRRR and NAM3 suggest small amounts of cape;    the chances of severe seem to be low, but they're likely non-zero.

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30 minutes ago, high risk said:

        There is little doubt that shear tomorrow afternoon will be fabulous;   it's a question of whether we can have any src-based instability.     Both the HRRR and NAM3 suggest small amounts of cape;    the chances of severe seem to be low, but they're likely non-zero.

Oh yeah definitely not an absolute 0%. A trend that I've been noticing through today with the models is for a few more of us to make it into the warm sector for tomorrow with sfc temps into the mid/upper 60's w/ dwepts 60+ owing to the surface low tracking a bit further to the west. Perhaps some enhanced wind gusts if something gets going tomorrow and we get more sfc-based cape like you said. Nothing big though...at least I don't think (not an expert).

We watch.

 

 

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On 3/3/2018 at 8:51 AM, Kmlwx said:

One thing to consider for us severe weenies...the wind event we are just getting through might be the biggest severe event of 2018 ;)

Sadly that's probably true. 

Heck this was the best event for me since a particular line of storms that came through this region around the end of June of (maybe) 2012?...... I'll look into that. One can still hope and dream and track and weenie though. You never know. ;)

 

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

With this travesty of a winter...I really can't wait until this becomes the dominant thread in a few months. Time is just ticking by. Until then, I'm just hoping for a late hard freeze or two to help cut down on the bugs. 

I think I’m gonna go hard chasing this summer. Love lightning and for whatever reason we get very little of it here in the Beltway. Will probably be making multiple trips south towards Richmond and north towards the MD Line.

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16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I think I’m gonna go hard chasing this summer. Love lightning and for whatever reason we get very little of it here in the Beltway. Will probably be making multiple trips south towards Richmond and north towards the MD Line.

North of I-70 and east of Rt. 15 in MD up to York and Lancaster, PA is the best for chasing to the north. I-81 corridor from Winchester, VA up to Harrisburg, PA is also decent, but hard to move east unless you're in the right spot. South of D.C. is hit or miss... generally want to be along and east of I-95, with the best area in there probably running between Emporia, VA (which has a Bojangles, BTW... mmmm) and Fayetteville, NC. Very tricky with the waterways once you start getting closer to the coast in VA/NC. Delmarva Peninsula is also a decent play... just mind the mosquito population if you end up near the coastal areas.

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1 hour ago, Ellinwood said:

North of I-70 and east of Rt. 15 in MD up to York and Lancaster, PA is the best for chasing to the north. I-81 corridor from Winchester, VA up to Harrisburg, PA is also decent, but hard to move east unless you're in the right spot. South of D.C. is hit or miss... generally want to be along and east of I-95, with the best area in there probably running between Emporia, VA (which has a Bojangles, BTW... mmmm) and Fayetteville, NC. Very tricky with the waterways once you start getting closer to the coast in VA/NC. Delmarva Peninsula is also a decent play... just mind the mosquito population if you end up near the coastal areas.

I’d figure up north you can get some nice elevated spots for seeing shelf clouds etc nicely as they come in. I struggle here in Rockville with no elevated areas; can’t see any lightning until it’s over me. Thanks for the tips.

I’d love to find some great places, preferably facing west, that are elevated and not too far off the beaten path.

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