Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Our HM really likes tomorrow per his Twitter account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Our HM really likes tomorrow per his Twitter account. widespread wind damage, tornado stuff seems better further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Thanks @mappy for those maps 30 percent risk of winds but 5 percent hail... ML Lapse rates look fine to me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 from the SPC outlook the air mass will remain favorably unstable/buoyant to support damaging-wind-producing thunderstorms riding the frontal baroclinic/instability gradient, potentially all the way to the Chesapeake Bay region. can any one guess what that could mean? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, mappy said: from the SPC outlook the air mass will remain favorably unstable/buoyant to support damaging-wind-producing thunderstorms riding the frontal baroclinic/instability gradient, potentially all the way to the Chesapeake Bay region. can any one guess what that could mean? Calling for a derecho A long track MCS would be fun to watch... warm front needs to move north of us though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 the storms (or should i say rainshowers) have been mostly spotty in my neck of the woods the last week. still haven't had a good storm here this season. also think we could use that forecasted deluge later in the week. streams are running low. this area could really use a widespread line of strong storms or moderate rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: that would work too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR True... but HRRR did do well I believe on the early morning rain and storms (remnant MCS?) from range for Sunday morning... was good for about at least 8-10 hour lead time. But yes, HRRR does find a nut once in a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR SPC all but said the word derecho in their outlook. I wouldn't rule it out, at least a long lived squall dropping south out of the PA/Ohio area. Pitt WFO is doing a special sounding today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Lets do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 I hope today performs well IMBY. Flying out at 7am tomorrow so whatever happens tomorrow I will miss out on. Also hoping the engine doesn't fall off my plane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 12z NAM says what storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 12z NAM at 00z TUES near DCA 12z NAM at 00z TUES near FDK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: 12z NAM says what storms? Yeah it's night and day with the HRRR. And the differences on sim radar show up by like 4-6 hours out. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Yeah it's night and day with the HRRR. And the differences on sim radar show up by like 4-6 hours out. Wow. 06z HRDPS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Of note - the HRRRx is pretty much a snoozer except for a few cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 need to watch tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Tomorrow has me giddy. It's got the best potential so far this year, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Alrighty then 12z NAM... volatile atmosphere for 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 14z HRRR continues the beat of having a good MCS complex rolling through the region 21z-23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 14z HRRR continues the beat of having a good MCS complex rolling through the region 21z-23z yeah the HRRR would be area-wide raking this evening. Wonder if it has to do with capping on the NAM not being broken. Pretty stark difference. HRRR has been quite consistent...so one of them will bust pretty large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The the HRRR line of doom is to be believed, then we need some sun within the next hour and a half...we are cool and stable as all get out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Updated morning AFD from LWX is taking a bit longer than I expected... its not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The the HRRR line of doom is to be believed, then we need some sun within the next hour and a half...we are cool and stable as all get out right now. Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. HRRR runs warm us into the mid to upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today. Give it an hour or so and we should be clearing nicely IMO... and I'm not liking tomorrow with 0-6km shear looking abysmal of 20-25 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today. Like I said before - all my eggs are in today since I won't be around tomorrow So I'm hoping for a regionwide event. I'll be looking at GOES a lot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Give it an hour or so and we should be clearing nicely IMO... and I'm not liking tomorrow with 0-6km shear looking abysmal of 20-25 kts That would seem to indicate pulse storms mostly/multicell unless you get a nice cold pool to propagate a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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