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BullCityWx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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5 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

WPC looks interesting and close to my thoughts so far, I do expect more changes closer to the event:

40-50% chance 1" snow or greater from Wilkesboro to Asheboro and points north-east. mountains included. (Winter Weather Advisory)

Cut off lines near Greenville, SC, Charlotte,NC and Raleigh,NC as usual with every storm. (Edge of advisory/special weather statement)

Less moisture central/southern foothills into south-west NC including Asheville. (special weather statement, advisory bordering northern foothills and in the higher elevations)

4" or more warning criteria reserved for the mountains, western Wilkes and just north of Surry into Virginia. (Winter Storm Warning Chances, Slim albeit possible)

 

 

Here’s the photo

AA0E52FD-2870-400C-816E-3258710704B4.jpeg

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5a5c0258a450c_ScreenShot2018-01-14at8_21_52PM.thumb.png.cf2519d8bf1af54b00f9157e9ed936a8.png

21z SREF plumes for RDU - mean about the same but obviously there's an outlier. I'm guessing ARN6 is spinning up a coastal low or something.

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21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this run

As far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced

1a0ed8e7c4a356af990b075c3519a68f.jpg

43ecf93ecfb9f26db9db3d486250e1dd.jpg

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this run

As far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced

1a0ed8e7c4a356af990b075c3519a68f.jpg

43ecf93ecfb9f26db9db3d486250e1dd.jpg

.15 here, close to the German and Euro

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this run

As far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced

1a0ed8e7c4a356af990b075c3519a68f.jpg

43ecf93ecfb9f26db9db3d486250e1dd.jpg

During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR 

Remember the rule Mack; go with the model showing the best goods...

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR 

I'm not a fan of how the SREF is constructed, at all (normally it has widely varying results from its members)...but I'm looking at the SREF mean for general QPF trends. It held fine this run...and my comment about the precip type stands

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

This NAM run is gonna be better! More digging, about to be a boom over NC!

Is there a difference between a BOOM and a boom?

TW

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