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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Also, upper level temps are fine.  It is just surface temps that haven't cooled below freezing for many.  The points people have made the past couple days is it wont be too warm to snow.  NOT you will get a foot of snow.  

925 and 850 are well east.  So there is no need for them to cool.  Just your surface temps will cool.  Unfortunately there is a low forming off the coast fighting with the ULL for surface temps creating a sharp cutoff of accumulations.

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...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow is occurring or will begin shortly. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions, including during the evening
  commute. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina, including the
  eastern Piedmont, along and east of Highway 1, and the
  northwestern Coastal Plain.
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4 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

The coastal?

Yea.  It will form down near the SC coast and go north east pulling the precip away from you goes.  It will be too weak and too far out to sea to help you out.

It might help enhance the current moisture in the meantime, but it wont throw moisture that far back.

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15 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Starting to see the makings of a low off of Cape Fear. This may end up enhancing totals across eastern NC if temperatures can crash enough.

image.thumb.png.59375de1369960788fe9d6423f1f15a3.png

 

Myrtle beach is forecast for light snow and possibly a dusting at best atm.  Would a low forming there make it more difficult for the cold to come in?

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10 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Any chance the low throws precip back to wake co? Or is the low forming too far north?

That would be a big stretch. The low is not strong enough nor is it showing signs of deepening rapidly enough for that. East of 95 could end up with some enhancement though. 

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5 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Myrtle beach is forecast for light snow and possibly a dusting at best atm.  Would a low forming there make it more difficult for the cold to come in?

MB will likely be too far south to see any impacts as the low gets a bit better organized later tonight. Should the low become better organized than forecast, it is possible to see a meso-band develop to the northwest of its track.

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1 minute ago, thunderwolf said:

MB will likely be too far south to see any impacts as the low gets a bit better organized later tonight. Should the low become better organized than forecast, it is possible to see a meso-band develop to the northwest of its track.

While you are answering questions: that band associated with the ULL, will it affect Triangle? Models aren't clear.

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We really need the see the coastal low bombing a bit to get us in the game for more than a 1-2" type event down here.....basically the 12K NAM and RGEM need to be right, the I went to bed this morning ( working nights this week ) with no model showing more than 1" for MBY, I wake up and the 12K has 6-8" and the RGEM probably had 3-5", HRRR 3-4" for MBY. Kinda surprised to see that.....hope it works out that way.

 

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1 hour ago, DopplerWx said:

ouch. what happened to the 8-10" totals? my old house got 2.1" i would have been PISSED.

Granted, that was as of 1:00 PM. Many areas, especially in Orange/Chatham/Durham/Wake have added since then. I just measured about 9.5" in my front yard and heard a report on the radio that Carrboro had 8".

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