Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 For what it’s worth, 21z SREF is also showing very little in the way of downstream convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 A couple of them must go REALLY far north, because they have me (northwest of Grand Rapids) getting more snow than GR...unless they are seeing some lake enhancement here. Then a whole bunch of them give my area just a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I can see this coming west more, once that weird kink in track is resolved in the south. That is when the convective feedback issue starts. I do find it interesting that the entire clown car does it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 It’s been a long time since Indianapolis has been in the crosshairs of a winter storm like this one could be. Hopefully it all comes together for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Any differences in the NAM through 48 don't seem material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Any differences in the NAM through 48 don't seem material. Maybe a slightly faster, shallower trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 I don't think this will be a good NAM run for anybody looking for a westward shift. Too much unfavorable northern stream influence imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Closed H5 circulation over the lower MS Valley at 54, which is stronger than the 18z run. Kicker looks weaker too. Might come west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't think this will be a good NAM run for anybody looking for a westward shift. Too much unfavorable northern stream influence imo. 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Closed H5 circulation over the lower MS Valley at 54, which is stronger than the 18z run. Kicker looks weaker too. Might come west some. Welp, one of us will be wrong, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Mix into Central Ohio by 63 is faster than 18z where it was still rain. So at least a bit colder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 It is going to be east a bit. Oh well it is the NAM beyond 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't think this will be a good NAM run for anybody looking for a westward shift. Too much unfavorable northern stream influence imo. I was thinking the same thing. The cold air seems to be charging south, and forcing it southeast. Hope I'm wrong...in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Welp, one of us will be wrong, lol Probably me. By 60 the differences don't seem so notable. I do see the greater influence of the northern stream but I'm not sure what impact that'll have. Sort of seems more phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This is a bad run. The low heads due east into S.C.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Great run for south/east Indiana and west/central Ohio... sucks for everyone else. Even Indy is pretty much whiffed. Moved much further east it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 It is much farther east. Instead of the Low being in NE Tennessee, it is now practically in North Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The rusts shows. Definitely a bit to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said: Great run for south/east Indiana and west/central Ohio... sucks for everyone else. Even Indy is pretty much whiffed. Moved much further east it looks like. As much as I like it, I have my doubts! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: This is a bad run. The low heads due east into S.C.?? Hardly believable, garbage model showing it is garbage still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: It is going to be east a bit. Oh well it is the NAM beyond 48 hr. Seems like some convective shenanigans again later in the run. What do you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z NAM looks roughly I-71 ish for Ohio for best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Seems like some convective shenanigans again later in the run. What do you say? I say we have a bingo I mean I would have to dive in a bit deeper but from what I was seeing in the 500mb pattern, no way the low goes that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM is way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Seems like some convective shenanigans again later in the run. What do you say? That's what I'm thinking. The convection appears to be tugging at the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 HOLY SMOKES-- if only we could lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: As much as I like it, I have my doubts! LOL The right-hand turn into SC is likely wrong, but if you follow it on a straighter path NE from northeast Georgia, it's about the same as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Holy hell, lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 wow the nam sucks really bad I just dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM gonna NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I say we have a bingo I mean I would have to dive in a bit deeper but from what I was seeing in the 500mb pattern, no way the low goes that far east. Colder air was moving in faster. I would think that would push it more east as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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