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Hoosier

January 11-13 Winter Storm

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Figure we are close enough for a thread as confidence is growing in a significant/major storm for some part of the region.

It all gets started on Thursday as an initial wave ejects out from the Plains, bringing wintry precipitation to western areas. This eventually minors out in favor of a strong southern stream system, which looks to track somewhere into the Ohio Valley. How exactly this plays out and where it tracks is of course up for debate.  In any case, potential is there for a copious precipitation producer and a prolonged one in some areas as there may not be much of a break between the 2 systems.

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I've got a strong hunch that the main heavy snow axis ends up from Chambana through South Bend and up to Lansing with a pretty sharp cutoff to the NW of that. Regardless it appears pretty likely that this is gonna be a pretty darn moist system. Definitely jealous of MI this season, they've just been reeling them all in. I wish that we could have systems like them, but sadly it just doesn't happen out here.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Oh no, now there's a thread. I guess we can kiss this opportunity goodbye :P

I quit models if this one vanishes.  Less than 5 days so it should be relatively safe.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I quit models if this one vanishes.  Less than 5 days so it should be relatively safe.

No it's gonna run all the way to Iowa in a fascinating turn of events. Calling it now! :weenie:

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12z GFS comes in a little less impressive than the 0z. Swath of +SN from central OH up through TOL and parts of SeMI. Still a solid hit for those who score its path. 

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Seems this will also become dependent on how quickly that high pressure ejects out of the NE.  With low pressure in the N in Canada, wouldn't be surprised to see this shift west and slow a bit.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

meanwhile ukmet raises the other flag of worry...  weak and progressive.   Takes a weakening low from southeastern TN off the midatlantic coast just south of DC.

This pattern scream cutter. I call BS on crazy Uncle, which is generally sound regardless of the pattern.

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21 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Seems this will also become dependent on how quickly that high pressure ejects out of the NE.  With low pressure in the N in Canada, wouldn't be surprised to see this shift west and slow a bit.

Not sure it could go anymore west. Someone yesterday mentioned how there's another system that enters the NW US and moves through the plains at the time this storm starts moving northeast. That plains energy helps kick this system more eastward keeping it from going any farther west. See the visual in Baums post.

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

meanwhile ukmet raises the other flag of worry...  weak and progressive.   Takes a weakening low from southeastern TN off the midatlantic coast just south of DC.

You getting it on wxbell?  The site I use hasn't updated with today's 12z.

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Cool thing about this one is the very real possibility of it being in the 50s/60s in some of the places that could get a lot of snow shortly after.  We aren't talking a March/April system when it's easier to pull that off.  Though I can think of notorious winter storm(s) that had this kind of warmth preceding.

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The fact that Toronto gets smoked with 1.5 feet of snow with the GEM and GDPS runs lately means that we are almost certainly going to get rained on or miffed to the south :) 

Although it is fun to track... always sad when the Euro isn't on your side, but it's still very early days... very early days.

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GEM takes a bit of an erratic path but it is cross between Euro/GFS, though I do think it transfers/shifts east weirdly quick especially looking at the 500mb pattern with the negatively tilted shortwave in the mean trough.

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Although it is worth mentioning that the Euro has had a really poor handle on the Pacific... it has flip flopped dramatically over its last few runs. Doesn't seem to have a good handle upstream, which gives the GFS/GEM some credence... well, as much credence as 5 days out can provide.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Already some non-trivial differences between the 12z GFS and Euro by 72 hours. My guess is the Euro will be more toward the western idea.

Agreed, it doesn't look like it will budge significantly this run, maybe narrow consensus a touch but that is about it.

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Watching this one closely. Please weather gods, give me a good 6-10” storm it’s been 3 years now. Not to mention I start vacation this Friday and I’m off for 9 days. Nothing better than sipping a rum n coke model watching all night. 

 

These specific setups make me nervous. 

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