Wmsptwx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Its over...even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Its over...even up here. Define over. You're in a pretty good spot to see more snow. Probably multiple times. I won't re-post this quote so long as you come on here after it snows and tell us how much you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Horst just updated his weather discussion disco...don't read it if you're like me and hoping for more snow. In a nutshell: Rain later this week. Rain later next week. Blocking breaks down, spring potentially arrives the following week. (this is for the Lanco area, you guys up in the far interior/mountain areas could quite likely flip to snow during both storms...but unlikely to happen down this way) I will be excited for a snowstorm or nice warm (dry) spring days..So either way is fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, 2001kx said: I will be excited for a snowstorm or nice warm (dry) spring days..So either way is fine for me. Yep. I'm ready for something other than rain...but at least for me, that's one looks to be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 31 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yep. I'm ready for something other than rain...but at least for me, that's one looks to be coming. Yeah im tired of it...Its a complete swamp here..My car is actually stuck in the driveway right now (dirt drive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Still think the late week storm (next week) could be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Still think the late week storm (next week) could be good. . Let's hope, it probably is the last hurrah. It's not been a terrible/horrible winter, MDT is right around 18" for the year but it's not a complete shutout really. Lack of cold air has hurt us, precip clearly has been ample. Just no arctic air. Damn you, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 59 minutes ago, canderson said: Let's hope, it probably is the last hurrah. It's not been a terrible/horrible winter, MDT is right around 18" for the year but it's not a complete shutout really. Lack of cold air has hurt us, precip clearly has been ample. Just no arctic air. Damn you, Canada. The bitter cold of early January seems so long ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Bitter cold ended up in Europe. Rome had snow and it's snowing in England. Maybe if some pieces move around properly it could get cold here and still get precipitation. By pieces I mean the nao block and the pna. Hopefully we have one last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 hours ago, canderson said: Let's hope, it probably is the last hurrah. It's not been a terrible/horrible winter, MDT is right around 18" for the year but it's not a complete shutout really. Lack of cold air has hurt us, precip clearly has been ample. Just no arctic air. Damn you, Canada. I usually say "damn you, Canada" too, but it's for totally opposite reasons that you did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, snowalot said: Bitter cold ended up in Europe. Rome had snow and it's snowing in England. Maybe if some pieces move around properly it could get cold here and still get precipitation. By pieces I mean the nao block and the pna. Hopefully we have one last hurrah. When the PV split I thought we’d be sharing the cold. It’s still a few days away but it’s going to take a deep storm to get dynamic cooling if we cant get a good track under us. Nao should help but trough out west was my worry last week. Pna rules the show imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 hours ago, Superstorm said: Still think the late week storm (next week) could be good. . Absolutely! It is so somber in here for no reason. Winter is far from over for us! The blocking pattern that is setting up could still deliver us a good snowstorm in the next 10 days. The Euro today at 12z showed what could be a blockbuster of a snowstorm that crawls up the coast next Wednesday. Before we get to next week, the EPS today, as it has the last few runs, says that most of us could get a couple of inches of snow on Friday with the developing coastal storm. If this storm develops & deepens off the Delmarva, this should flip to snow for most of us if we have good precip rates. The EPS is also showing some fantastic ensemble members for the next Wednesday storm. Overall, the EPS has a 5 inch snow average by the end of the run for the LSV, with more to the north & west in CTP. The GEFS also has had similar amounts the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Absolutely! It is so somber in here for no reason. Winter is far from over for us! The blocking pattern that is setting up could still deliver us a good snowstorm in the next 10 days. The Euro today at 12z showed what could be a blockbuster of a snowstorm that crawls up the coast next Wednesday. Before we get to next week, the EPS today, as it has the last few runs, says that most of us could get a couple of inches of snow on Friday with the developing coastal storm. If this storm develops & deepens off the Delmarva, this should flip to snow for most of us if we have good precip rates. The EPS is also showing some fantastic ensemble members for the next Wednesday storm. Overall, the EPS has a 5 inch snow average by the end of the run for the LSV, with more to the north & west in CTP. The GEFS also has had similar amounts the last few days. Although its been a long and rough sled ride this year...I'm right with you. I see the "its over crowd" gathering and just scratch my head. While things arent looking as "epic" as they were, we still are heading into a period that can most definately deliver (yesterday 12z Euro/18z GFS for example), and has been advertised for some time now. Verbatim they both showed a major snow event for many of us for mid next week, and while I'm sure we'll here "its only an op run....blah blah blah....it shows the potential that has long been advertised, and that period may deliver, as there are a couple others waiting in the wings. Right around green beer day, it looks like green grass may start to pop through the snowpiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Although its been a long and rough sled ride this year...I'm right with you. I see the "its over crowd" gathering and just scratch my head. While things arent looking as "epic" as they were, we still are heading into a period that can most definately deliver (yesterday 12z Euro/18z GFS for example), and has been advertised for some time now. Verbatim they both showed a major snow event for many of us for mid next week, and while I'm sure we'll here "its only an op run....blah blah blah....it shows the potential that has long been advertised, and that period may deliver, as there are a couple others waiting in the wings. Right around green beer day, it looks like green grass may start to pop through the snowpiles. I agree with you...that said, Eric had been trumping the major snow/noreaster drum for the past several weeks, and yesterday he virtually eliminated much talk of snow down our way. Hence my discouragement. I know he's not perfect and the pattern is volatile and subject to change, but it seems like we lost a really good met in our snow arsenal yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I agree with you...that said, Eric had been trumping the major snow/noreaster drum for the past several weeks, and yesterday he virtually eliminated much talk of snow down our way. Hence my discouragement. I know he's not perfect and the pattern is volatile and subject to change, but it seems like we lost a really good met in our snow arsenal yesterday. I get ya. Truth told, I was sorta looking like when I read Horsts its over post yesterday. It obviously isn't easy to snow round here of late, but indicies/pattern suggests this upcoming period is still definately one that has the ability to produce. Unless he knows something we dont (and he likely does ) I was surprised. If i need to be a nelly to show my unbiased side, I'd say that trough in the SW that keeps popping up (largely due to the -PNA is really nutzin up this period. I know some disagree, and thats fine, but if we had a +PNA, i'd think we'd be giddy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 we could hit 60 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Yeah, wouldn't surprise me if some places do. It's a nice cooldown from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 The Euro's trying to hang backlash precip over a good portion of PA as we switch to the coastal system and it slowly moves away out into the Atlantic east and then actually southeastward in response to the NAO block. The track of the initial primary is just a bit too far north, running east into western PA before transferring. Otherwise we might be talking about more of a fighting chance of seeing the more notable precip shield coming with the primary low as snow. Euro paints a solid stripe of 6"+ across the NY border PA counties as well as the southern tier NY region and actually bends it down into NE PA into northern NJ to NYC as the coastal low fires up. This axis is further south than the 12z GFS had. 850 temps are below 0 by the 72hr frame over most of PA with backlash remaining but the 925mb-surface layer remains an issue (outside of PA northern tier). As I noted the other day, system just doesn't have any decent cold to work with. I do think it will eventually get cold enough to snow on the backside of this system, but probably not til it's too late for good precip rates. The Laurel's and esp Pocono's elevations will stand a better chance. I suppose we could still see the primary low track shift south in the next couple days, but as of right now things still look mostly wet for the central and LSV. Here's a perfect example of the lack of surface cold air present this week preceding this storm. 1000-500 thicknesses are still below 540 over most of the eastern two thirds of the commonwealth this afternoon, while we have widespread mid to upper 50's surface temps currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 MDT has had 5.44" of rain in February. 5th wettest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z NAM just provided a little white love for Friday, especially east of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 12z NAM just provided a little white love for Friday, especially east of the river. GFS looks quite similar actually. It's going to be windy as hell alogn the ridgetops in the western side of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Look at the incredible difference between the 12K and the 3K NAM's. 3K is amazing for nearly all of us LSV with 8" at MDT by 7PM Friday evening whereas 12K is clearly a huge event mainly east of LSV and especially into NJ with a raging snowstorm during the middle of the day Friday into Friday evening and almost a foot of snow there. The secondary starts out near Boston and retrogrades southwestward towards coastal NJ bringing the snowstorm to PA/NJ (in from the northeast moving southwest). While 3K gives PA the most snow it gives north Jersey only a few inches primarily well west of NYC. I was in the middle of planning a short trip to visit my sister in north Jersey on Friday, but now I don't know where to go for the snowstorm. Stay here (3K), or go to Jersey (12K) ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Look at this!!! 12K NAM (12Z today) 1st image, 3K second image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Look at the incredible difference between the 12K and the 3K NAM's. 3K is amazing for nearly all of us LSV with 8" at MDT by 7PM Friday evening whereas 12K is clearly a huge event mainly east of LSV and especially into NJ with a raging snowstorm during the middle of the day Friday into Friday evening and almost a foot of snow there. The secondary starts out near Boston and retrogrades southwestward towards coastal NJ bringing the snowstorm to PA/NJ (in from the northeast moving southwest). While 3K gives PA the most snow it gives north Jersey only a few inches primarily well west of NYC. I was in the middle of planning a short trip to visit my sister in north Jersey on Friday, but now I don't know where to go for the snowstorm. Stay here (3K), or go to Jersey (12K) ????? its been trending this way for a couple days now. To the credit of the LR modeling, it picked up on the retrograding deal last week, as I remember commenting on the evolution saying how that "aint gonna happen" or something along those lines. I'll take my crow "Blackened"...with a side of brussel sprouts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 12z NAM just provided a little white love for Friday, especially east of the river. the way the wind field looks we may need the flakes to fall out of the clouds well to our north and west for what reaches the surface around here lol the 12z 3km NAM run shows potential for some serious wind gusts around here Friday afternoon which would not be ideal given how saturated the soil is currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 and furthermore....this is why those of use that were denying the "its over voices"....this is exactly why. We are just heading into the new regime, and while digital/real snow has been hard to come by, early calls of anything for the next couple weeks is highly premature (if you follow the tellies/indies) and not your heart. hearts can be broken in many ways though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Supposed to fly back to LGA from Montreal around 1:30 on Friday. May have to look at getting out of dodge sooner.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 49 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Supposed to fly back to LGA from Montreal around 1:30 on Friday. May have to look at getting out of dodge sooner. . Montreal is a great place - stay there an extra day if need-be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Montreal is a great place - stay there an extra day if need-be! Or rent a car and drive to the fingerlakes grab a bottle of your fav and enjoy the snow. I’d highly recommend Sparky’s. Great hooch. Fantastic view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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