Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Morning all, Happy Frickin Hump Day! Looking at overnights and still looks like we have 2 warmish pulses to work through centered around Sat and next Thurs. From there we look to get the cold back in a more workable fashion, but buyer beware, as AO/PNA/EPO/MJO are looking better, NAO is still struggling to help, so while the storm factory may get brewing, we still may get cut by any strong storms. still a much better pattern than were we are (which isnt horrid, but not a snow lovers delight either) Sauss, I'll be getting the chainsaws out as well, as its time for me to start cutting for next season ( I typically cut/split 5qds/yr). Nut Yep. I think we'll still be in a progressive pattern and without blocking the chances of a big daddy are minimal. To get an all-snow, 6"+ event we'll need some luck with timing and spacing. Regardless, cold air will be available and their should be energy to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 hours ago, sauss06 said: woke up around 230 for a fire call, holy wind. My homemade Buoy bells were really clanging. We didn't drop in temp much either. i had 44 when i left the house at 515. And i thought the high was to only be 40? Cold air bled in more slowly than progged. We were supposed to drop to freezing overnight, I had 41 at 5:30am. Interestingly, it's 39 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 23 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Cold air bled in more slowly than progged. We were supposed to drop to freezing overnight, I had 41 at 5:30am. Interestingly, it's 39 now... I'm now at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Went to the 76ers game tonight. Snow flakes were in the air the entire way from south Philly until I got the 30/896 interchange. Even a bit of a cartopper down near Chadds Ford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 As we continue through what can be best described as being in the doldrums in terms of impactful winter weather in the latter part of January, we will have several pieces of the puzzle to address putting together when it comes to the arrival of February. Starting with the basics... I think the teleconnection forecasts of a return to a solid -EPO in the beginning of February will start us with the basic fundamental look we had in the last half of December if it comes to fruition, with nice Pac/AK ridging establishing and providing us with direct access to Arctic cold once again. The EPO has seemed to be the primary driver in our local weather pattern this winter, so it's def important to note that teleconnection being forecast to getting back into our favor. The lack of -NAO looks to continue although in the overnight runs of the GFS/Euro I did see some signs of ridging under Greenland towards D10 that coupled with the favorable Pac make a pretty cold look for our neck of the woods. The NAO hasn't helped this winter, but it really hasn't hurt it either. It would be nice to have to slow progression more and maybe wind up a bigger coastal or two, but we can still get bigger storms by other means or without the classic -NAO block. The next big thing is the MJO. I'm not sure how this teleconnection is going to play into all of this yet, but it could be more in play than it may have been earlier in the winter. We're running a pretty decent pulse that's currently traversing phases 4-6 (getting ready to enter phase 5 from 4). Those are the ugly phases, which typically has an almost assured correlation to significant sustained eastern warmth/southeast ridge/etc. However, that's not really we're seeing.. even in the past several days. Yes we have trended above average temp wise in the last half of this month but nothing extreme and certainly nothing to the degree we've seen from warm spells in the last two winters. I almost think climo is playing more into the + departures we've had as mid-late Jan is at the bottom of the curve in terms of climo temps. For example, having a couple days that crack 50 now is going to have a bigger + departure than the same thing happening in mid December or mid-late Feb. At any rate, a decent chunk of this week is going to be more average temp wise before we moderate ahead of the next system this weekend. And beyond that models imply the cold starting to try to establish towards Feb 1st as the Pac starts resetting back into a more favorable look for us. In that same 7-10 day timeframe, we have the MJO generally working phase 6 (towards 7 in faster models like Euro). Should be noted that the MJO has a lag period of several days as the tropical forcing associated with that teleconnection takes some time for any influence the mid-high latitude weather pattern. Either way, one would think we'd be working our way through a torch with that.. because it's a pretty strong MJO pulse. So that's rather intriguing to me. It lends a little bit more support that the Pac pattern and EPO are in the driver seat with influencing our weather. The frigid 14/15 winter had this happen, where we were in the freezer no matter what the MJO did (and it went through these phases that winter). Now eventually, the MJO is poised to run through 8-1-2, which runs the tropical forcing on our side of the globe and could help establish the southern jet and provide more storm opportunities. And I think that may ultimately be what this teleconnection has the biggest effect on with the dominant Pac pattern (which would appear to be persistent northern Pac/AK ridging). The question is how much magnitude. The MJO was forecast to run through 8-1-2 in December and the pulse fizzled and it stayed in the circle, which I feel played into not having as stormy of a pattern as we could've had. I think we have a much stronger pulse this time around that can do it, so we'll see. If we get it there, we're talking more like mid-Feb where it could have it's hand in things. It's a great time of the winter to line up a favorable Pacific alignment (providing cold) with a potential charged up southern jet so certainly the chance for a big storm(s) could be elevated in that timeframe. Lastly there has been some rumblings in the strat-warming department, with some disturbing of the stratospheric PV (although not a major disturbing or splitting of the PV). That's also something to consider with potential arctic intrusions going forward. There's a good site I occasionally look at that posts from time to time on this subject which is HERE. Some interesting points and opinions in here about a couple different other things as well (such as the persistent AK/Bering Sea ridging potentially being connected to record low sea ice extent in that particular region). To summarize overall, I'm fairly optimistic of a return to a consistent colder pattern and snow chances in February, and I think this Feb will certainly have more upside than last Feb did (solid stretch of record warmth aside from the first week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Thanks for the write up Mag. Last year was the worst February I ever remember. 75 degrees can wait until May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Thanks for the write up Mag. Last year was the worst February I ever remember. 75 degrees can wait until May ...and legitimate severe weather as well. I never expected to send my family to our basement due to a tornado warning in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: ...and legitimate severe weather as well. I never expected to send my family to our basement due to a tornado warning in February. I forgot about that. Yuk. My optimism for Feb has been quietly growing that we should see nothing of the sorts this year. Not saying wall to wall snow and cold, but much more chat about winter fun than torches. I sure hope so, cause I've not thought much about cave life for a while, and am really enjoying a normalish winter. Also, I'm sure after Voyager is done with it, I wll have alot of redecorating to do to get rid of the grass hut/tiki torch/ and sand..... Man i hate sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 TGIF. Just another reason why I LOVE Friday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Storm above at 6z takes on a qpf distribution similar to the rain to snow event 2 weeks back. at 0z i was more in the game as the distribution was more generous to most of PA. I'm mostly on the sidelines at 6z but its a week away and has been consistently showing up. Gradient pattern showning up favors Northern locals so I may ride the line down here, but it will be fun to watch as it appears to be a fun period of tracking coming up. Yeessssssss!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 27 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Storm above at 6z takes on a qpf distribution similar to the rain to snow event 2 weeks back. at 0z i was more in the game as the distribution was more generous to most of PA. I'm mostly on the sidelines at 6z but its a week away and has been consistently showing up. Gradient pattern showning up favors Northern locals so I may ride the line down here, but it will be fun to watch as it appears to be a fun period of tracking coming up. Yeessssssss!!! Love it. Let us hope we can receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I'll take this for $1000, Alex: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: I'll take this for $1000, Alex: I'll take a repeat of the 2000 Super Bowl Sunday, please and thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 When I saw the CMC earlier I wanted to post but didn’t want to b the only one doing so. A compromise of it and the GFS would put the smack down one the entire lot of us. Only 27 more model runs to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Had my attention a second then saw 204 hrs. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Had my attention a second then saw 204 hrs. lol. Huh?? Storm is from 156 to 192. CMC Map posted was storm total. Happy hour starts in an hour buddy.....not an hour ago....and if so, wait for us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Huh?? Storm is from 156 to 192. CMC Map posted was storm total. Happy hour starts in an hour buddy.....not an hour ago....and if so, wait for us!! Thats not much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 ok, so now that I'm a couple beers in... 18z shifted notably SE, and its enough to make a grown man cry....for true Central, tears of joy....for me its just a spectator sport, but this one aint done yet. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The GEFS & EPS were absolutely beautiful at 12z for multiple snow chances for CTP over the next 2 weeks. The snow amounts on them have been ramping up over the last couple of days, but today, they really took the next step toward the promised land. Just for fun, check out the EPS control run from 12z today. It truly buried all of CTP in snow in epic fashion! The bottom line, regardless of the snow maps, is that we are beginning a good window for multiple snow chances over the next 2 weeks. If the MJO continues the tour through phase 8,1, & 2, then this February could be a fantastic snow month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GEFS & EPS were absolutely beautiful at 12z for multiple snow chances for CTP over the next 2 weeks. The snow amounts on them have been ramping up over the last couple of days, but today, they really took the next step toward the promised land. Just for fun, check out the EPS control run from 12z today. It truly buried all of CTP in snow in epic fashion! The bottom line, regardless of the snow maps, is that we are beginning a good window for multiple snow chances over the next 2 weeks. If the MJO continues the tour through phase 8,1, & 2, then this February could be a fantastic snow month! Of course it would. I start a new driving job next week, and I'll be in orientation Monday and Tuesday in Camp Hill and then back to work driving. It almost always snows when I have to start a new job in trucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GEFS & EPS were absolutely beautiful at 12z for multiple snow chances for CTP over the next 2 weeks. The snow amounts on them have been ramping up over the last couple of days, but today, they really took the next step toward the promised land. Just for fun, check out the EPS control run from 12z today. It truly buried all of CTP in snow in epic fashion! The bottom line, regardless of the snow maps, is that we are beginning a good window for multiple snow chances over the next 2 weeks. If the MJO continues the tour through phase 8,1, & 2, then this February could be a fantastic snow month! Yeah the control run was pure weenie porn. It looks like a very active period and it looks to get better towards mid Feb. let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I’m predicting a Presidents Day/weekend snowstorm. 6+” for the majority of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m predicting a Presidents Day/weekend snowstorm. 6+” for the majority of this subforum. That would be fantastic. Been a long time since we’ve had a region wide warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 10 hours ago, pasnownut said: That would be fantastic. Been a long time since we’ve had a region wide warning event. The overnight model runs say that we won’t need to wait until President’s day. We might only have to wait until this Friday if the overnight Euro is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I love snow as much as any weenie, but it is nice being able to enjoy outdoor activities without throwing on a billion layers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 And sooner yet we may have to watch for a more minor event in the Mon Night/Tuesday timeframe. Models have been developing a swath of snow with varying results via a digging shortwave/ somewhat inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 44 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: And sooner yet we may have to watch for a more minor event in the Mon Night/Tuesday timeframe. Models have been developing a swath of snow with varying results via a digging shortwave/ somewhat inverted trough feature. Yeah been seeing that showing up. GEM has a basic 1-2" across the majority of the state. Its also been on and off w/ the GFS but happy hour delivers true Central the appetizer before the late week main course :). Longer range GEFS looks ripe w/ opps every couple days. QPF for the period looks pretty impressive as well. Euro is on board for Friday as well. Fun times ahead, and we expect to hear from you frequently pal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Good God...I wish there was an emoji of this guy with the gun facing the other way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Man, today was spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Overnights still holding on to the Mon/tues event and looking at the 6z gfs is just shot after shot at getting something every few days. Can’t wait to see if we can score with a few of these. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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