sauss06 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Thanks for your input. Interesting for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 Well didn’t really see any of the start of the eclipse before daybreak, but did catch this nice sunrise. It’s a balmy 13ºF out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm surprised it's this quiet in here today. Model guidance has solidified a fair amount regarding the Sun Night/Monday event having a more robust system from the Gulf that's trended our direction.. especially in the case of the GFS/GEFS guidance. Euro runs some snowfall over the area as well. I'd def roll with what the ICON had too haha. There wouldn't necessarily be much to prevent this system from coming north some if things aren't too progressive, there's not really much a surface high to the north being progged. I like the look of things attm, I think this is starting to look like our best chance we've had to date this winter for a more moisture laden system to deliver a solid (but not excessive) snow event to most or all of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Once I read in the MA thread how the GFS amped it and it was junk, I was meaning to look closer but then got sidetracked. Good to know, thanks for your thoughts. Let's hope we can get a storm that gets all us some snow on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'm surprised it's this quiet in here today. Model guidance has solidified a fair amount regarding the Sun Night/Monday event having a more robust system from the Gulf that's trended our direction.. especially in the case of the GFS/GEFS guidance. Euro runs some snowfall over the area as well. I'd def roll with what the ICON had too haha. There wouldn't necessarily be much to prevent this system from coming north some if things aren't too progressive, there's not really much a surface high to the north being progged. I like the look of things attm, I think this is starting to look like our best chance we've had to date this winter for a more moisture laden system to deliver a solid (but not excessive) snow event to most or all of the region. yeah youd think. The GFS just jips me out, but the Euro/ICON have all of us in the game. Regardless of the outcome, I'm excited to see this consistantly showing up on the models, and better yet, there are still multiple chances for most of CTP through next week. I'm guessin some are just gunshy.... I am too, but I'm in it to win it...lol No HP above is is scary, but progressive nature of this season may help to keep it moving along and not digging too much. Mag, find us some -NAO would ya? Looking forward hopefully have some chatter in here, cause a few of us are starting to troll JI (down in the lions den....I mean MA forum), as most of us want to talk about weather...not peed in cheerios. Dude is climbin on my last nerve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yeah youd think. The GFS just jips me out, but the Euro/ICON have all of us in the game. Regardless of the outcome, I'm excited to see this consistantly showing up on the models, and better yet, there are still multiple chances for most of CTP through next week. I'm guessin some are just gunshy.... I am too, but I'm in it to win it...lol No HP above is is scary, but progressive nature of this season may help to keep it moving along and not digging too much. Mag, find us some -NAO would ya? Looking forward hopefully have some chatter in here, cause a few of us are starting to troll JI (down in the lions den....I mean MA forum), as most of us want to talk about weather...not peed in cheerios. Dude is climbin on my last nerve. Finally put him on ignore today. First time I ever had to do that for anyone on the boards. He does this just about every year where he drags the board and posters down where it becomes nothing but complaining and absolute negativity on everything. He has just about driven me out of that forum for the year and it will not be the first time either. eta: Think there are decent chances for this region for Monday. But lets see how the models are handling the energy come Fri/Sat because that is really the key on how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Finally put him on ignore today. First time I ever had to do that for anyone on the boards. He does this just about every year where he drags the board and posters down where it becomes nothing but complaining and absolute negativity on everything. He has just about driven me out of that forum for the year and it will not be the first time either. eta: Think there are decent chances for this region for Monday. But lets see how the models are handling the energy come Fri/Sat because that is really the key on how this plays out. Yeah, I've never done that but may have to as well. The constant negativity offers little/no value to the board, and is turning folks away. PSU and I were pming about it today. It happens in every forum, but really has taken away the coversattional aspect (that I love and learn from - and thats why were here). On the other hand I guess people can just ignore me as well. I've got no problem with it. 95% of us are here to enjoy a passion for metorology and our love of seasons (which at this time of year is a bunch of raging snowhounds). I step away in the summer cause its not my gig, and I'm not going to spoil the fun for the ones who like it. The reality is winter is a precious few months, so to those of us that relish it....yeah its a kick in the kahoonas when stuff doesnt work out, and then the debbies pile on or wish it away. I think i speak on behalf of many here, we'd welcome your insight, and imagine that you'd bring a little life in here. Post away pal. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Any chance of some nice squalls tmrw night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I've never done that but may have to as well. The constant negativity offers little/no value to the board, and is turning folks away. PSU and I were pming about it today. It happens in every forum, but really has taken away the coversattional aspect (that I love and learn from - and thats why were here). On the other hand I guess people can just ignore me as well. I've got no problem with it. 95% of us are here to enjoy a passion for metorology and our love of seasons (which at this time of year is a bunch of raging snowhounds). I step away in the summer cause its not my gig, and I'm not going to spoil the fun for the ones who like it. The reality is winter is a precious few months, so to those of us that relish it....yeah its a kick in the kahoonas when stuff doesnt work out, and then the debbies pile on or wish it away. I think i speak on behalf of many here, we'd welcome your insight, and imagine that you'd bring a little life in here. Post away pal. Nut Quite honestly, it sucks (for me) that a winter centric board just happens to be the best place for good, top quality weather information. I guess it's the truck driver in me who has to be out in a storm for 11-14 hours instead of just a half hour commute to an office that makes me hate winter like I do. That being said, I love all you guys and I'll try not to rain on your snow parades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Any chance of some nice squalls tmrw night? Chalk a line from wellsboro to State college to Bedford and points west for an inch or 2. Nada for us flatlanders. You look good for Sunday Monday gig tho. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I was just going off of Hazardous weather outlook for areas even east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Feeling pretty good right now about Sunday/Monday's system being a classic interior event. Lack of high pressure up north and southerly flow aloft presents issues down this way, but still think we could all get a few inches with amounts increasing north and west of here. That...is something that happened regularly years ago but sure not much lately. Unlike our brethern down to our south, I personally have no issues with anyone posting here in our community so long as they're here to add and not subtract. Showme is a great addition and I'd sure as heck love to see PSUHoffman stop in from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Actually, winter 13-14 featured several storms that were rain in Maryland and snow in the LSV. I remember having a 15-20 inch snowpack and there being very little in down there. They got theirs eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 52 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Feeling pretty good right now about Sunday/Monday's system being a classic interior event. Lack of high pressure up north and southerly flow aloft presents issues down this way, but still think we could all get a few inches with amounts increasing north and west of here. That...is something that happened regularly years ago but sure not much lately. Unlike our brethern down to our south, I personally have no issues with anyone posting here in our community so long as they're here to add and not subtract. Showme is a great addition and I'd sure as heck love to see PSUHoffman stop in from time to time. I also think that CTP is in a good spot for the Super Bowl Sunday storm. Most of the models show those of us back towards I-81 & northwest from there stand to be in best area for a 4 to 6 inch type of snow storm. If the low tracks close enough to us, we may mix or flip to rain for a bit, but not until after a few inches of snow are on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yeah it’s a nail biter for me. Antecedent cold is not a good setup when you don’t have latitude and HP parked up north. Best way for a win down here is for it to track a little SE from where it’s modeled. I am expecting a changeover but will hope for surprises. Gun to head mag and wmsptwx are winners in the Super Bowl snowstorm. I’m waterboy for this one. Literally and figuratively. Hoping for better trends tho. Beyond this storm is still active and I’m not even going to respond to the 384 torch shown in the MA thread. That’s a long ways out. Models need to show us that they can figure something out inside 96 before I worry about 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 0z GFS brings 4 inches of snow on Super Bowl Sunday to the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS brings 4 inches of snow on Super Bowl Sunday to the Harrisburg area. if we want to hug models to help this year...the Icon likes us too....lol If you want to see something nuts use the up/down arrows to toggle between 18z and 0z GFS runs. Watch the low placement bounce around. Ping pong tables get less action. Nonetheless, this one isnt decided yet, as it actually shows the LP center cutting. Its an outlier....so we toss....I hope. See yall in the AM. Floor hockey has me whooped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Canadian at 0z also brings 3 to 5 inches of Super Bowl Sunday snow, but it places the bullseye over the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Canadian at 0z also brings 3 to 5 inches of Super Bowl Sunday snow, but it places the bullseye over the LSV. Yeah, but if you loop through the last couple runs, you'll see the dreaded NW trend of the r/s line. While were running out of time, i still think there is enough to keep you and i on the sidelines. Boy do i hope I'm wrong. Its flatter progression allows the 850s to stay safe for most, but again the trend has not been what we want. HBG and points N/W are likely in the game. Ok, now off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The 0z Euro delivered an I-81 special & brought 5 inches of snow to Harrisburg. Once south of northern York & Lancaster, the amounts drop off to 1-2 inches. There is some room to move the line in either direction, but the trend today favored those of us near I- 81 for at least a few inches of Super Bowl snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro delivered an I-81 special & brought 5 inches of snow to Harrisburg. Once south of northern York & Lancaster, the amounts drop off to 1-2 inches. There is some room to move the line in either direction, but the trend today favored those of us near I- 81 for at least a few inches of Super Bowl snow. GFS likes us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Temps near the freezing mark made for a pleasant early morning walk today. Much doom in gloom seems to exist here on the boards the past 24 hours as much of the long-range modeling has taken a decided turn for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 View of Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, pawatch said: View of Euro Trend is not my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Weird small jackpot of snow on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Heres to trends... 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I posted in the MA forum. Anyone w/ access, toggle through last 4 runs of 12k and you'll see the trends we need. Still have time to go better or worse, but I'm huggin the NAM cause it shows me what I want. SE ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I posted in the MA forum. Anyone w/ access, toggle through last 4 runs of 12k and you'll see the trends we need. Still have time to go better or worse, but I'm huggin the NAM cause it shows me what I want. SE ticks Se ticks ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Rooting for you, nut! Keep the info flowing guys, this place will come to life. As a Michigan and Pats fan I prefer to keep topic off of football in these parts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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