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Upstate/Eastern New York


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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NEW YORK

...Oswego County...
   Scriba                22.0   843 PM  1/01  Trained Spotter
   Mexico                16.0   730 PM  1/01  16 INCHES IN 2.5 HOURS
   Hastings              10.5   839 PM  1/01  Social Media

What time period are those? I don't see anything on Cocorahs for 24 hr totals that approach that, in Oswego county.

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18 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Going to rip in roc for a few hours I think ad bands consolidate and intensify. Big saying 3 to 5 more overnite

Not seeing that.

CMC holding onto some backend lake enhancement on the storm. Big storm. Too bad it’s east of the benchmark and showing signs of sailing even further east. Of course, we still have almost 72 hrs to watch. The big one can move 400 Miles in that time frame..

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4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Gfs sucks with coastal storms. Will correct west till the end. Use nam model

GFS showing better upper air look...the surface will reflect that in later runs. NAM is just nuts. Would like to see more westward though...just need that northern kicker to be a phaser. May just happen.

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

NAM has a western bias. Use a blend. Don’t use the model that gives your desired outcome.

All thatbeing said, we could do well with enhancement/ fake snow. 

There's a cyclonic, moist NW flow for a few days...that'll be interesting.

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Maybe you guys are right. They're calling it a snow squall. :lol:

I think they've lost it. I saw that band last night in NAM 3km but figured it would give 1-2" max. 

NYZ010>012-085-021645-
Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2018

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...CENTRAL ERIE AND
WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 1113 AM EST, a snow squall was located over Lancaster
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this squall.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia,
Depew, Amherst, Lancaster and Hamburg.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.
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It's the beauty of weather...so difficult to predict - especially in extreme patterns such as this. We need better models, more measurements, and more experience.

I have a hunch the EC bomb will surprise many as well. Don't think the models have a handle on it yet in this extreme pattern.

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe you guys are right. They're calling it a snow squall. :lol:

I think they've lost it. I saw that band last night in NAM 3km but figured it would give 1-2" max. 


NYZ010>012-085-021645-
Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2018

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...CENTRAL ERIE AND
WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 1113 AM EST, a snow squall was located over Lancaster
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this squall.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia,
Depew, Amherst, Lancaster and Hamburg.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.

 

Tomorrow the new snow squall warning becomes  operational. Is this the situation it will apply to or this considered a lake snow situation?

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