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showmethesnow

Jan 4th Coastal

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west 

 

 

Wow, I really like seeing the western flank of those lows and its skewing the mean to the west too.  

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png

gem-ens_mslpa_us_12.png

It's so frustrating the whole upper level pattern isn't a few hundred miles further west. What a huge east cost hit this could be. Very small in the grand scenes of things but yet so far away...lol

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

That cluster on the west side of the GEPS is close to a money track 

And very few east outliers

eta: ninja’d

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42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I asked this only because I find you to be so knowledgeable and so I really like to hear what you have to say. It's nothing to do with keeping score to see who is right or wrong or whatever. More like trying to validate my feelings of still being in on it and whether I'm off base and just wishcasting.

I had no problem with you asking and I didn't take it the wrong way.  Not sure why it bothered Mitch. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Last 3 runs of the GEPS. 12z is very encouraging. Just need to hope it's not a blip. 

 

Man, I love the weather! Even if we end up with .5", i'd be happy. This thing was literally brought back from being east of Bermuda! Crazy. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Geps much better 500s then Gefs 

 

That is a very encouraging panel honestly. I've never really tracked the GEPS with verification but if you want to hug anything right now...that is the panel to take a nap with until 0z tonight. 

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure if posted but Geps looks real nice and west 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png

 

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

That cluster on the west side of the GEPS is close to a money track 

Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation of the data?  If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous?  Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through.  Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking.

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Sucks we have to work tomorrow.  I m used to happy hour really being happy hour.  Let's make it count today.  

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2 minutes ago, knglover said:

Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data?  If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous?  Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through.  Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking.

Since this is a fast moving, progressive, and dynamic setup it's best to follow trends as leads shorten. The GEPS picked up on the possibility something @ 12z that was absent at 0z. Look at the northern stream energy to the NW. Much slower. This keeps the "kicker effect" muted at our latitude. 

jNmkStN.gif

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1 minute ago, knglover said:

Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data?  If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous?  Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through.  Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking.

Yes, but if you look closely, it looks like there are 7 members pretty far west and then a bunch pretty far east and the combo gets you the mean low pressure center, which leads you to believe the low is likely to either be on the west side or east side and not where it's actually depicted. At least that's my understanding looking at that.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Since this is a fast moving, progressive, and dynamic setup it's best to follow trends as leads shorten. The GEPS picked up on the possibility something @ 12z that was absent at 0z. 

jNmkStN.gif

Thanks Bob!  I am looking at this loop and my noob eyes tend to like what they are seeing.

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Based on verification scores, the GEPS at 72 hours has roughly as much skill as the GGEM.  For some reason the GEPS have been performing relatively better in the long range, and the GEFS have been doing better in the short range.  I suspect it's because the GEFS are more tightly clustered around the op, which is good in the short range, and the GEPS have a better spread, which pays off in the long range. 

2 minutes ago, knglover said:

Speaking from a purely statistical approach; Wouldn't it be prudent to throw out the 5 or 6 most outlying members to gain a more accurate representation data?  If that is correct and I am reading this right, wouldn't there then be more argument for the westerly members being the most numerous?  Please excuse me if my noobishness is showing through.  Trust me, I have a ton of other questions that I haven't wanted to bother anyone by asking.

I don't think so, especially with so few data points.  The one caveat to the GEPS is that the individual members use different physical models, so they have different skill.  This is arguably good from a statistical standpoint (less correlation among the members), but I don't know which of the members are most skillful.  Let's say its the ones with the western tracks.  Why not.  :weenie:

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I guess there is still a little time. 

Of course there is. It’s funny how those that we’re “out” now have half a piggy toe back in. No matter how good some are this is exactly why most of use spend countless hours chasing, because we all know that there are so many variables....and very few absolutes in this game. It’s part of the fun.  Today’s runs (save GFS) and now 12z Euro proves my point (and I’m not saying it works out....I just know better than to to write anything close off at 4-5 days out. Am I surprised...sure, but we’ve seen things trend worse....and sometimes better over the years. 

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Just to recap: 

SREF's - Get the .25 through the cities. 

JMA - about .2 for the cities. 

EURO - .1 for the cities. 

GGEM - .15 for the cities. 

NAVGEM - get's precip into the cities. Not sure how much. 

GFS - Nada for the entire eastern shore pretty much. 

I'm really interested to see how the short range models deal with things as they start to come into range. 

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Still the minority of course but a notable uptick in eps solutions that get the .1 qpf line into the I95 corridor. Around a quarter of them now and a couple that would actually be half decent. Not sure how much the EPS adds at this range but overall supportive of what the op put out. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Of course there is. It’s funny how those that we’re “out” now have half a piggy toe back in. No matter how good some are this is exactly why most of use spend countless hours chasing, because we all know that there are so many variables....and very few absolutes in this game. It’s part of the fun.  Today’s runs (save GFS) and now 12z Euro proves my point (and I’m not saying it works out....I just know better than to to write anything close off at 4-5 days out. Am I surprised...sure, but we’ve seen things trend worse....and sometimes better over the years. 

That would be me. And honestly, being out made it a lot easier. I might have to use this technique more often in the future. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Still the minority of course but a notable uptick in eps solutions that get the .1 qpf line into the I95 corridor. Around a quarter of them now and a couple that would actually be half decent. Not sure how much the EPS adds at this range but overall supportive of what the op put out. 

there are 5-6 more euro runs before game time...lets get 25 miles each tick lol. And then you know there is always that final run right before the storm..that shifts everything east 50 miles and pulls the rug out from under us

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The fact NAVGEM is so far west and we are seeing a west trend gives me hop this is real and there is still plenty of movement west to come.

Half hour until the NAM. Excited to see small positive changes again! I hope!

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Just to recap: 

SREF's - Get the .25 through the cities. 

JMA - about .2 for the cities. 

EURO - .1 for the cities. 

GGEM - .15 for the cities. 

NAVGEM - get's precip into the cities. Not sure how much. 

GFS - Nada for the entire eastern shore pretty much. 

I'm really interested to see how the short range models deal with things as they start to come into range. 

Check out the latest sref! Huge jump in qpf for DCA. 

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the ROI of this storm might be some of the worst of all time when its all is said and done

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the breakdown of individual members? Like seeing that qpf line tick west. 

About half get .1 west of the bay compared to a quarter last night. Some of the west of the bay's only include SoMD though so half don't push .1 to 95 or anything like that. I think the best way to look at it is the EPS supports the op's shift instead of the other way around.

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