Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2018

[andyhb]

Well it's about that time of year again with just over two months until meteorological spring begins.

Closest to first high risk date last year -> Stebo: March 13th (actual: January 22nd)

Closest to number of tornadoes last year -> lookingnorth and hurricaneman: 1300-1400 (actual: 1359 as per December 27th)

As mentioned in the previous thread, last year was one with a generous amount of tornadoes overall, yet very few intense (EF3+) tornadoes, yielding a very strong contrast between overall numbers and "quality" of events. There were four high risks that generally underperformed due to various factors, one being the hangover sub-tropical influence from the 2015-16 super Nino, despite the presence of weak La Nina SSTAs in the tropical Pacific.

Looking forward to the coming year, it appears we'll have lingering La Nina influence in place once again, but this time with a less prominent sub-tropical jet. The analogs presented below in Anthony Masiello's tweet represent years with a good QBO/ENSO match to the current winter.

As one can see, the current December regime is a close match to the December 250 mb geopotential height anomalies, although a sample size of just three winters is not ideal. Other years that have been mentioned in analogs from various winter forecasts include 1954-55, 1995-96, 2005-06, 2007-08 and 2013-14 (I've seen some other bigger years thrown around, although they don't appear to be as good matches to the SSTA patterns, QBO structure, etc). We've also seen a dominant East Siberia/Sea of Okhotsk standing wave vortex as of late, whose downstream effects have generally encouraged a persistent -EPO via wavebreaking (something that hopefully eases a bit later in the season). The southeast ridge has also been fairly suppressed.

The PDO has also fallen into a more neutral state lately, as opposed to the positive conditions of the past few years, which is at least somewhat promising. We also currently have a -TNI in place with cooler SSTAs in Nino 1+2 vs. Nino 4, and a positive state has shown some correlation to increased chances for larger outbreaks. The PDO and weakened sub tropical jet appear to be two factors favouring an uptick in activity vs. the mean of the past 5 or so years. It remains to be seen how much La Nina will influence the upcoming late winter and spring (MEI has been relatively weak), although I'd tend to lean towards at least cold neutral forcing come peak season.

Number of tornadoes: 1225

First High Risk: March 16th

 

[Stebo]

Number of tornadoes 1425

First High Risk March 3rd

[rolltide_130]

Oh goodness I have no idea where to go with this spring.. those 3 analogs posted above are somewhat underwhelming, especially for this sub-forum, but a sample size of 3 is a little bit too small to go off of as mentioned. Also, I haven't really noticed a lot of instances in which we had a year that really fit a previous analog these last few years.. so this is still rather uncharted. 

As for overall tornadoes, I think that we'll take a slight dip in TOTAL tornadoes this next year but we'll gain some in terms of significant tornadoes. I'm also going to go on a limb and say we get our first EF-5 since 2013 this coming Spring, That's a bit of a risky call because of how increasingly subjective and blurry the EF scale seems to have become in recent years, but with hopefully a more active polar jet and less active subtropical jet, we should see some higher end setups actually materialize and not collapse due to STJ messiness like we were plagued with on multiple occasions this past spring.

However, I'm going to stick with persistence and say that March is once again below average this year and that things don't really pick up until April. 

 

First high risk: April 7th

 

Number of tornadoes: 1278 with at least 1 EF-5 

[the ghost of leroy]

i just want something fatty and high contrast. the 3 tornadoes i saw this year were underwhelming af compared to 2016.

[andyhb]

33 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

i just want something fatty and high contrast. the 3 tornadoes i saw this year were underwhelming af compared to 2016.

Cosigned.

[monsoonman1]

1182 tornadoes

First High Risk: March 27th (AR/MO) 

thinking average year in terms of numbers with better quality than 2017.

[MattPetrulli]

1241

First High Risk: April 3 (AL/MS)

[Roger Smith]

1195

First max risk March 31st

[rolltide_130]

51 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

1195

First max risk March 31st

 

That would be quite the Birthday present.. 

[cstrunk]

Purely guesses... 

1305 tornadoes; May 1st, eastern Oklahoma. 

[bjc0303]

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

Number of tornadoes 1425

First High Risk March 3rd

My birthday

 

Just a note.. Tornado ratings don't mean anything when evaluating the quality of events. You're basically equating the quality of the season with the number of damaging tornadoes...doesn't make sense. The Wyoming event was pretty wild even if most of the tornadoes were 'weak' in the sense that they didn't have much to hit out there. Just an odd comment..

 

If we wanna harp on chaseability that's a different story. 2017 did suck in that regard.

 

Guesses (or predictions?):

Another 1300+ tornado year. Somewhat more active is my guess - at least from a chaseability standpoint. If we can stay out of the high-amplitude pattern we were in for a large chunk of spring last year, then I think we're a lock for 1300+. 

 

First high risk: April 28th - May 5th timeframe. Oh, you want an exact day? Okay. May 2nd. Plains high.

 

Let us all take a moment of silence for that one late April system that held so much promise - yeah, the one that had I-35 outbreak written all over it by not only the GFS but the Euro as well? - yeah that one. Days before, both models said "HAHA NOPE" and it became total garbage.

[andyhb]

2 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Just a note.. Tornado ratings don't mean anything when evaluating the quality of events. You're basically equating the quality of the season with the number of damaging tornadoes...doesn't make sense. The Wyoming event was pretty wild even if most of the tornadoes were 'weak' in the sense that they didn't have much to hit out there. Just an odd comment..

If we wanna harp on chaseability that's a different story. 2017 did suck in that regard.

Well that's quite the tone to come back to this site with.

10/15 of the EF3+ tornadoes occurred before April last year. EF3+ tornadoes occur when the setups are most favorable for classic supercells most of the time, regardless of biases in terms of buildings to hit/etc. Was 2011 a great chase season? No, but that was mainly because the setups were in unfavorable locations. 2017 had a number of Plains "potential events" that underperformed or just were generally not that great in terms of photo/video opportunities. Removing the subjectivity of ratings, 6/12 was basically the only above average chase day during the AMJ period last year.

[bjc0303]

52 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Well that's quite the tone to come back to this site with.

10/15 of the EF3+ tornadoes occurred before April last year. EF3+ tornadoes occur when the setups are most favorable for classic supercells most of the time, regardless of biases in terms of buildings to hit/etc. Was 2011 a great chase season? No, but that was mainly because the setups were in unfavorable locations. 2017 had a number of Plains "potential events" that underperformed or just were generally not that great in terms of photo/video opportunities. Removing the subjectivity of ratings, 6/12 was basically the only above average chase day during the AMJ period last year.

I would agree but I wouldn't say it was that way because there weren't a bunch of EF-3+ tornadoes roaming around. It was just a mix of badly timed or placed events, and mesoscale features ruining otherwise good looking setups. Pretty boring season. On the large scale, we had a bigly amplified pattern that didn't allow for good moisture return for basically all of M-A-M until the latter half of May.

 

I mean, you could say that the pattern sucked and that we didn't get any prominent events, but to me it's still weird to judge chase season quality on numbers of EF-3+ tornadoes.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

I would agree but I wouldn't say it was that way because there weren't a bunch of EF-3+ tornadoes roaming around. It was just a mix of badly timed or placed events, and mesoscale features ruining otherwise good looking setups. Pretty boring season. On the large scale, we had a bigly amplified pattern that didn't allow for good moisture return for basically all of M-A-M until the latter half of May.

 

I mean, you could say that the pattern sucked and that we didn't get any prominent events, but to me it's still weird to judge chase season quality on numbers of EF-3+ tornadoes.

Last year wasn't a good chase season for a multitude of reasons including lack of intense tornadoes. It is pretty widely regarded in that respect that the year wasn't great.

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

I mean, you could say that the pattern sucked and that we didn't get any prominent events, but to me it's still weird to judge chase season quality on numbers of EF-3+ tornadoes.

I wasn't necessarily judging it just from the perspective of chasing though.

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Last year wasn't a good chase season for a multitude of reasons including lack of intense tornadoes. It is pretty widely regarded in that respect that the year wasn't great.

Also because the tornadoes themselves were pretty much all rain wrapped farts that lasted 2 minutes before getting inflow chopped by another storm, because many of the days last year featured way too many storms, like the opposite of cap busting. I hope to God we can at least beat the quality of the tornadoes last year.

 

Anyway my guess for this year:

1275 tornadoes 

First high risk: March 13th in AR/LA/MS

[rolltide_130]

36 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Also because the tornadoes themselves were pretty much all rain wrapped farts that lasted 2 minutes before getting inflow chopped by another storm, because many of the days last year featured way too many storms, like the opposite of cap busting. I hope to God we can at least beat the quality of the tornadoes last year.

 

Anyway my guess for this year:

1275 tornadoes 

First high risk: March 13th in AR/LA/MS

 

A more active polar jet combined with less subtropical activity SHOULD cut down on this problem. Although I'll say that and we'll get some completely new problem this year, as it seems like overall the last few years has had a new yearly theme pop up that has really hampered our severe potential. 

[CheeselandSkies]

6 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Let us all take a moment of silence for that one late April system that held so much promise - yeah, the one that had I-35 outbreak written all over it by not only the GFS but the Euro as well? - yeah that one. Days before, both models said "HAHA NOPE" and it became total garbage.

This, so much. Biggest model fail I've personally seen in regards to severe. I'm used to the GFS spitting out lol fantasy storms anytime beyond about 100 hours for severe, winter and tropical but when the Euro was on board I was hearing "Humans Being" in my head.

Totally killed my faith in the globals. Not sure it's even worth trying to use them to plan a chasecation this season.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said:

 

A more active polar jet combined with less subtropical activity SHOULD cut down on this problem. Although I'll say that and we'll get some completely new problem this year, as it seems like overall the last few years has had a new yearly theme pop up that has really hampered our severe potential. 

How about a Plains drought?

[andyhb]

Just now, Hoosier said:

How about a Plains drought?

2013-14 say hi.

[rolltide_130]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

How about a Plains drought?

That sometimes means Dixie/OV insanity though as we can get a cap and dryline feature further east. Not good for Plains Chasers but I don't think that's a death knell to the season as a whole. 

[Hoosier]

Just now, rolltide_130 said:

That sometimes means Dixie/OV insanity though as we can get a cap and dryline feature further east. Not good for Plains Chasers but I don't think that's a death knell to the season as a whole. 

Yeah I agree.  I was meaning something to derail the Plains season.

[rolltide_130]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah I agree.  I was meaning something to derail the Plains season.

 

Definitely not optimal for the Plains but if I had to pick between that or last year's shenanigans, I'd probably pick the drought. At least with the drought, you can still get action along the I-35 corridor while the High Plains/Panhandle gets baked. 2011 and 2013 were both dumpster fires for the High Plains but had some higher end events closer to I-35. 

[rolltide_130]

I do feel like, in terms of overall chaser/severe nerd morale, 2018 is a make or break year. Another bad year might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for a lot of us who are heavily interested and invested in this side of weather after the consistent record-low activity followed by an extremely disappointing and messy year this year despite the AA raw numbers. I will say I am hopeful that the fact that we're getting our current base NW flow state out of the way in December will open the doors to a much improved overall synoptic pattern once things start thawing in the Spring. Usually having a hyperactive J-F-Early March spells trouble for the peak season save for 2008. 

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, rolltide_130 said:

I do feel like, in terms of overall chaser/severe nerd morale, 2018 is a make or break year. Another bad year might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for a lot of us who are heavily interested and invested in this side of weather after the consistent record-low activity followed by an extremely disappointing and messy year this year despite the AA raw numbers. I will say I am hopeful that the fact that we're getting our current base NW flow state out of the way in December will open the doors to a much improved overall synoptic pattern once things start thawing in the Spring. Usually having a hyperactive J-F-Early March spells trouble for the peak season save for 2008. 

Amen to that. From '12 through '17, the rule was quality over quantity. Then '17 flipped that on its head. Still waiting for the next event that has a Pilger, Dodge City, Rozel, Bennington, Rochelle-Fairdale, Vilonia, and Elmer-Tipton all lined up from the triple point on down the dryline.

Of course, I'd be singing a different tune had I not been one mistake away from missing both Pilger and Rochelle.

Add to that, I could have chased February 28th of this year but committed to helping a buddy do clean-up/repair work at the condo he was moving out of because hey, it was FEBRUARY in Wisconsin/northern Illinois. What were the chances, really? Then the upper Midwest essentially shut down during peak season except for that one day in mid-May (the 17th?) which I chased. It featured some of the most insane speed shear seen in that time of year in a long time but something still seemed wonky and the storms had trouble really getting going...then there was June 28th which I also chased but was limited in how far I could go by work constraints and all the quality tornadoes occurred west of my range.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Not much moisture. dont see that changing. 

[rolltide_130]

33 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Not much moisture. dont see that changing. 

 

It's a La Nina winter where we're more prone to NW flow patterns like this, but this often doesn't have a ton of bearing on the Spring. Also, last year had too MUCH moisture and that hampered us. Even with a plains drought it's possible to get higher end events near I-35. An excessively active subtropical jet stream will ruin any setup no matter where it is. 

[andyhb]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Not much moisture. dont see that changing. 

Sound analysis as usual.

[GSwizzle83]

# of Tornadoes: 1330

First High Risk Day: May 4 (E KS/E OK)

[OKStorm]

If the drought continues to intensify in OK I have my doubts on a decent  spring.  I am going for 1050 total and the first high risk on March 7 in the Dixie  area.