GSwizzle83

If the Heady Pattern was correct, shouldn't we have seen another cold snap about now?? Just trying to figure out how all this works. Doesn't seem like there is any more winter left?

There is a significant difference between the NAM, GFS, and EURO in terms of ice accumulation beginning tomorrow through Thursday across a good chunk of especially Missouri. I am not sure what to really follow. The NAM seems to be super aggressive. The GFS keeps the freezing line way north and the EURO is in between. This makes a huge difference in temps and sensible weather.

And just as the NAM and GFS begin to move toward the EURO solution... it sort of changes. Will be interesting to see if the EURO's moves are a one run thing or the beginning of a new trend. I am personally okay not receiving 1"+ of ice.

FWIW, EURO continues to stick with this solution. It hasn't wavered in several days. The GFS has trended that direction, but clears precip out quicker.

The EURO for the past eight or so runs has been extremely consistent in putting down some scary ice totals across parts of MO/KS in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period next week (1-2" and plus in some cases of ice). None of the area offices seem to be biting much on it. Is there anything synoptically that would speak against such a setup. The GFS, for the record, has nothing at all in terms of frozen precip during this period and keeps the precip shunted mainly to the SE.

Yeah, it's like an ice skating rink. Trees have a nice glaze on them, too, here in Monett. Road temps are in the upper 20s. Will continue to cool overnight.

This seems to want to be the year of the ice. Not major ice storms that cripple regions for days or weeks, but regular freezing drizzle/light freezing rain events. I try not to get too worked up about these events so far in advance, but this one is a bit different because of the prolonged nature of the event signaled on the models. Will see if they dry out as they get closer to the event, but so far there seems to be a slight uptick in amounts each time. EURO is putting down .2" of ice across much of S MO. NAM seems to concur with greater than .1" amounts. Will see I guess. Model watching continues.

I would be worried about ice problems in NWA if I were you.

Wound up with about 3/4" here in Monett but the roads sort of flash froze making for those horrific accident scenes all over the news and social media. Tomorrow's system confounds me. I will be glad when we can get it fully sampled.

Interesting that the EURO has a stronger winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday than the GFS. That tends to lead more credence that there might be something there. Not that I want it. EURO lays down some horrific icing numbers. Of course those are just one run's numbers... but I don't want that much ice ever. 2007 was enough for me.

What Thursday winter storm??? WOW! Poof.

I have put my faith in the GFS before only to get burned. EURO is going drier and drier each run. Develops a TN Valley winter storm instead. *sigh*

EURO trends would definitely bear this out with the Feb 1 storm.

The news about Joel Taylor is absolutely heartbreaking!

Lock the 12z GFS in please.