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SnowGolfBro

Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The RGEM is pretty light with precip. But we already knew that. Maybe an inch throughout the area.

18z RGEM and GFS nearly identical. We can take some comfort in guidance all showing the southern edge of precip south of the area today. Ukie was the worst of the bunch. At least we have a track that works seemingly locked in. Now we just need to will the disturbance to come in with a little more juice. GFS/RGEM is .5 - 2" through the whole region. Most areas probably at least top 1". Wouldn't take much to get 1-3" everywhere....wouldn't take much for 1" or less either. lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z RGEM and GFS nearly identical. We can take some comfort in guidance all showing the southern edge of precip south of the area today. Ukie was the worst of the bunch. At least we have a track that works seemingly locked in. Now we just need to will the disturbance to come in with a little more juice. GFS/RGEM is .5 - 2" through the whole region. Most areas probably at least top 1". Wouldn't take much to get 1-3" everywhere....wouldn't take much for 1" or less either. lol

do you remember how much qpf was modeled a few years ago in early January when a clipper dropped 3-4 inches right after rush hour. I believe the forecast was for a T

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you remember how much qpf was modeled a few years ago in early January when a clipper dropped 3-4 inches right after rush hour. I believe the forecast was for a T

Yea, but this one is different. No circulation really. Just a disturbance zipping along in relatively flat flow. Don't get me wrong....I hope we get a surprise but these aren't the kinds that do it. No surface low in VA and no spin in the upper levels. Just a blob moving west to east. 

50:1 ratios could work though

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, but this one is different. No circulation really. Just a disturbance zipping along in relatively flat flow. Don't get me wrong....I hope we get a surprise but these aren't the kinds that do it. No surface low in VA and no spin in the upper levels. Just a blob moving west to east. 

50:1 ratios could work though

I mean, someone said ratios during the Jan 21st 2014 storm were 46:1, so 30:1+ ratios could happen even in NW DC. Temps would be in mid teens to lower 20s

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

This clipper sucks.

Nah, this one will be kinda fun. It's not really a clipper. Just an upper level disturbance breaking off the storm in the pac NW and zipping along with the jet. You can see it over oh/in on the jet panel

gfs_uv250_us_6.png

 

The fun part is we can literally extrapolate radar well in advance. No complicated dynamics or blossoming overhead stuff. Just a blob of precip aimed right at us. 

Hopefully it overperforms in the Midwest/OH Valley. That would be the first tipoff that we might do better than expected. Of course it might suck to the west and we'll be bummed before it even gets started. Lol

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Nah, this one will be kinda fun. It's not really a clipper. Just an upper level disturbance breaking off the storm in the pac NW and zipping along with the jet. You can see it over oh/in on the jet panel
gfs_uv250_us_6.png&key=b304b7ac02478717f4190b1662e6981ef609cdc922c4d4fac1d9fe9c5238182a
 
The fun part is we can literally extrapolate radar well in advance. No complicated dynamics or blossoming overhead stuff. Just a blob of precip aimed right at us. 
Hopefully it overperforms in the Midwest/OH Valley. That would be the first tipoff that we might do better than expected. Of course it might suck to the west and we'll be bummed before it even gets started. Lol
Why are some of the hi res models enhancing precip once hitting the coast? Is this a function of the warm Atlantic ssts?

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Why are some of the hi res models enhancing precip once hitting the coast? Is this a function of the warm Atlantic ssts?

Yea, I would assume the baroclinic zone and better upper level dynamics help get a weak low going once off the coast. It's not much of a shortwave. Pretty flat honeslty. If there wasn't pac moisture embedded and it was dropping out of canada it would probably just be clouds with no precip at all. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Not getting nam'd at 0z. 12k trimmed qpf. Can even get nam'd right this winter. 

Eyeballing 3k NAM, and it looks better. Precip panels not out yet

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Path should be more or less figured out by now. Then the last 24-hrs before “systems” in the .01-.2” liquid range is fine-tuning the bands of max QPF. Then, if every model agrees with measurable still, I’m usually expecting at least some accumulations, with a bit of optimism for an upside somewhere nearby.

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Eyeballing 3k NAM, and it looks better. Precip panels not out yet

Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. 

everytime we need a good trend....we hit a brick wall

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we have been tracking our next snow event know since about Dec 20th....the event will last 3 hours. This hobby sucks

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. 

Oh yeah, I see it now. Cut precip totals across the board 

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It flurried yesterday for longer then the 2 hours the NAM twins show snow.

Color me skeptical about this one. Not to keep being too negative, but people keep mentioning how we’ve had a lot of reverse busts this year. Definitely not true on the VA side of things, and I don’t really think it’s true overall. We’ve had events trend better but they’ve generally not lived up to expectations, again with the caveat of in VA at least.

Hope Saturday is different!

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It flurried yesterday for longer then the 2 hours the NAM twins show snow.

Color me skeptical about this one. Not to keep being too negative, but people keep mentioning how we’ve had a lot of reverse busts this year. Definitely not true on the VA side of things, and I don’t really think it’s true overall. We’ve had events trend better but they’ve generally not lived up to expectations, again with the caveat of in VA at least.

Hope Saturday is different!
 

even Dec 8 was a bust after it trended in a good way for us to get us into the game....the late model runs had us getting about 6 inches...until the 00z GFS cut has back to 3 and all the models followed suite..

 

Absolutely horrible winter so far

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Looks good to me.  Snow is snow.

Very true. I'll put my baseline for a good event as measurable snow, and 1"+ is a great event. 

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3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't know how we can change into a wetter pattern. The southern stream should be more active after around New Years. 

I feel like it's super dry for this time of year. I can't even remember the last time we had a decent rain event. The little pond near my house is almost dry. I've only seen that during really dry summers. You know the ole saying about drought.

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6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I was on the west coast 2013-2015. Same feeling. 

soi has been negative...we should of had a better southern branch

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At least this time I won't be sitting in my truck for 10 hours on standby staring at wet asphalt waiting for it to stick lol. Do you think the mountains will break it up like usual? 

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