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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe 

NAM should handle the cold, dry regime better than the global models. In terms of precip into the dry wedge, it all depends on the storm strength. A good storm with good forcing for accent will easily overcome a dry wedge. A weak one will not

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2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points?

I agree. I wonder what the wet bulbs would be 

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe 

Guys, to put this into perspective, the 2002 ice storm started out with a dry wedge and dew-points in the single digits above zero. This is 10 degrees colder than that one. We were in the mid 20's during the height of the storm. This would imply temps in the 20 degree range. If that is true, folks to the south of me will be crushed. We are looking at more in the way of frozen here in western NC. Good luck to you posters down that way.

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7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points?

Lots and lots of evap cooling. 

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7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Guys, to put this into perspective, the 2002 ice storm started out with a dry wedge and dew-points in the single digits above zero. This is 10 degrees colder than that one. We were in the mid 20's during the height of the storm. This would imply temps in the 20 degree range. If that is true, folks to the south of me will be crushed. We are looking at more in the way of frozen here in western NC. Good luck to you posters down that way.

That is the only time that I recall that North GA did not get much ice if any ice (at least my area) from a wedge when under an ice storm warning. Had a 33 degree pouring rain the whole night, not even a trace of ice that I can recall. I assume this would be different here. I think we got like over 2" that night, so perhaps it's a good thing it didn't freeze. At the time, however, I was totally bummed.

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10 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points?

The drier the air is at the on-set of a precipitation event, the more evaporational cooling you will get. It is a product of latent heat transfer via evaporation. So, you want those dew points as low as you can get them to start, that is if you are rooting for a frozen/freezing event.

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Either this thing is going to come back more amped tomorrow or it's going to keep trending more flat and squashed out. The trends are clear at this point. Flat wave/Precip south. 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The energy isn’t. even. onshore.

Exactly, but the trend is less precip on every decent model..

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1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Either this thing is going to come back more amped tomorrow or it's going to keep trending more flat and squashed out. The trends are clear at this point. Flat wave/Precip south. 

It's going to Cuba. Either that or Canada. 

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