Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Ri That’s absolute bs. Sure if you use surface temps but 925 doesn’t get taint past a Boston to pvd line. Seriously son learn at least a few things from the pros here. It's what it shows Jerry, whether it's correct is debatable. The "warmth" is clearly at the surface up to about 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's good for your area. Might be a paste job for a while though. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How is that in 128-495 belt? Don't worry Ray it looks good for us to about the Boston area. Looks simliar if not slightly better than the 4-8" we got over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's what it shows Jerry, whether it's correct is debatable. The "warmth" is clearly at the surface up to about 950mb I know but GFS is famous for this. Boston sure but Worcester? Toss that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The antecedent air mass is garbage for this. There is about 18-24hrs between the cutter and this for recovery before onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Don't worry Jerry. Boston even looks ok for this event. Get rid of the typical BL bias the GFS has and you have a good 12 hour or so storm moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The antecedent air mass is garbage for this. There is about 18-24hrs between the cutter and this for recovery before onset of precip. What cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Greg said: Don't worry Jerry. Boston even looks ok for this event. Get rid of the typical BL bias the GFS has and you have a good storm moving through. GFS was one, if not, the coldest model with today's storm fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Maybe we can trend this storm a little more juicier in the next 3 days, who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEM gets the low level center going a bit sooner so it's colder than the GFS. You also have a pretty favorable high position on this, so it's going to be hard to penetrate a lot of BL warmth far inland...if we get that dual low structure with one in NY and the other near the Cape, then you will have some problems along the immediate coast, but I'm not sure I would be worried about it more than 10-15 miles inland...and everything probably crashes E/SE throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What cutter? Apparently a damaging ice event is a cutter to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What cutter? You see what the 12z runs are doing today for the trailing wave tomorrow? They are running it up west us save for the 12km NAm. The GGEM/GFS/RGEM/3km NAM all cut west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The antecedent air mass is garbage for this. There is about 18-24hrs between the cutter and this for recovery before onset of precip. The storm that passes us tomorrow becomes a semi 50/50 low. There is plenty of time for the cold front to move in setting up the stage for Christmas. I'm not worried about uppeer and Midlevel temps. The only real BL level temps I worry truely about are around the Providence to Tauunton to the far south shore sort of situation. There you may go to a wetter type snow with some light chilly rain as the storm makes its closest pass. Otherwise you should do the same it not somewhat better than the first snowstorm we had over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You see what the 12z runs are doing today for the trailing wave tomorrow? They are running it up west us save for the 12km NAm. The GGEM/GFS/RGEM/3km NAM all cut west of you. And mets said ain’t happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Well in any case the forecast for 12/25 includes snow for most of us. Just a few days ago it was an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 did things change regarding Monday storm? thought a quick mover 1-3" event, sorry didn't read other then past 4 post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: And mets said ain’t happening Well... the consensus is showing a cutter to your west so... not sure what's there to argue about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: And mets said ain’t happening We shall see. GFS and RGEM are adamant about punching that warm front N tomorrow. They have you hitting the low 50s while the others I listed are about 15F cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't think the sfc low is running to our west Saturday night...the mid-level centers do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Pretty dynamic little event. I like the flash over. GGEM would be pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Well... the consensus is showing a cutter to your west so... not sure what's there to argue about. A "cutter" in his world is W of Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don't think the sfc low is running to our west Saturday night...the mid-level centers do. 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Well... the consensus is showing a cutter to your west so... not sure what's there to argue about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fair enough. Doesn't change that the consensus on models are showing it to your west, but Will does have the climatology knowledge so I'm not going to argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: A "cutter" in his world is W of Syracuse. I think I know what he's saying. It's the Primary low that looks like it wants to cut but instead helps the the redevelopement off the coast become our Christmass snowstorm. That primary low that goes through the eastern Ohio valley is NOT the dominant low. It weakens and dies. Not a true cutter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Greg said: I think I know what he's saying. IT's the Primary low that lokks like it wants to cut but instead helps the the redevelopement off the coast become our Christmass snowstorm. That primary low that goes through the eastern Ohio valley is NOT the dominant low. No, he's talking about tomorrows storm/low...it may cut west up through NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Back on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The primary transfers to the secondary basically as its just passing cape cod, I think most would want to see this happen sooner to pull the cold air down on the backside sooner instead of heights crashing SE once its NE of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No, he's talking about tomorrows storm/low...it may cut west up through NW CT. In terms of tomorrows storm. Yes, but this forum is for the Christmas storm not tomorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Greg said: I think I know what he's saying. It's the Primary low that looks like it wants to cut but instead helps the the redevelopement off the coast become our Christmass snowstorm. That primary low that goes through the eastern Ohio valley is NOT the dominant low. It weakens and dies. Not a true cutter at all. Here is the GFS 18z tomorrow. That's W of us. Brings a lot of low level warmth into the area that needs to be scoured out ahead of this event. Now this may or may not track as modeled on the majority of 12z guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That's not that bad of an airmass either. High pressure anchors as it moves north, so it will help funnel lower Td air in. Low rapidly develops and it should flash fairly quick to snow outside the coast even if it starts as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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